<h1><a href="http://gdb.voanews.eu/F36A9D21-13E9-4AB9-8AF8-37A44290E197_mw800_s.jpg" rel="ibox" title="中国资深经济学家茅于轼 (美国之音资料照片)" style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none; color: #132fbe; "><img border="0" src="http://gdb.voanews.eu/F36A9D21-13E9-4AB9-8AF8-37A44290E197_w640_r1_s_cx0_cy8_cw0.jpg" style="border-style: none; display: block; margin: 10px 0px; " alt="" /></a></h1><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15.199999809265137px; clear: both; line-height: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; width: 640px; "><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; color: #666666; line-height: 13px; margin-top: -6px; padding-top: 0px; display: block; padding-bottom: 12px; clear: both; ">中国资深经济学家茅于轼 (美国之音资料照片)</span></div><div> </div><div><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">中国经济放缓的新证据显示，放缓的速度有增无减。有媒体称，温家宝总理的经济增长预测有可能失准。经济学家们担心，随着支撑中国经济高速增长30多年的人口红利因素消失，中国经济的高速增长阶段已经过去，今后10到15年增长速度将会长期保持在7%以下。如果要继续保持增长速度，中国必须加快市场改革。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">*制造业放缓三年之最*</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">汇丰银行9月3日公布的8月份中国制造业PMI指数继续下滑，从7月份的49.3下降到47.6。这是中国制造业连续10个月放缓，放缓的速度是三年以来最快的。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">与此同时，中国官方公布的另外一项制造业PMI指数（中国物流与采购联合会和国家统计局服务业调查中心联合发布的PMI指数），8月份下跌0.9个百分点，到49.2点。这是这一指数从2008年12月以来的最低点，也是2011年11月以来首次跌破50荣枯线。50以上显示该行业处于扩张状态，50以下为收缩状态。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">美国财经媒体彭博新闻认为，中国经济透露出的新迹象显示，中国今年的经济增长很可能达不到温家宝总理预测的7.5%的增长幅度。报道说，如果这个看法得以证实，那么这将是从1998年亚洲金融风暴以来中国官方的经济增长预测首次失准，这会对中共的权力交接带来更为复杂的因素。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">不过，很多专家都认为，除了近期因素以外，中国经济的长期增长前景更加令人担忧。其中一个重要的因素是，推动中国经济高速增长30多年的人口红利因素正在快速消失。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">*老龄化加速发展 劳动大军锐减*</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">经济学家们认为，从2005年开始，中国就已经进入老龄化社会。统计数据显示，中国2005年60岁以上的人口为1.44亿，占当年全国总人口11%。按照衡量一个国家是否进入老龄化社会的最直接和最重要的标准，60岁以上人口占总人口10%以上，就进入了老龄化社会。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">更为糟糕的是，中国老龄化的发展速度还在加快。中国第二次人口普查数据显示，2010年中国60岁以上人口达到1.78亿。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">老龄化意味着，劳动力人口减少，社会需要负担的老年人数量增加，社会保障系统的压力加大，拖累经济增长。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">有专家预计，到2013年，中国传统的人口红利将消失。一项统计表明，1990年到2010年，中国人口增长从14.4%下降到4.8%。“十五”期间，劳动人口平均是2394.8万人，“十一五”前四年，年平均为2073万人，平均每年减少321.8万人。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">中国人口问题专家蔡昉在最近一次研讨会上指出，劳动力短缺之后，经济潜在增长率将降低。他预计，“十二五”期间，中国GDP将保持7.2%，“十三五”将降至6.1%。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">中国政法大学经济学教授杨帆9月3日接受美国之音电话采访时说：从储蓄率和投资率角度考虑，老龄化社会经济增速肯定下降。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">他说：“因为年轻人储蓄率高，老年人没有储蓄，就是纯消费量。所以投资和储蓄肯定下降，经济增速肯定要降下来。”</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">杨帆认为，中国要延缓老龄化社会对经济增长的拖累，必须依靠技术进步和成功的教育。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">*茅于轼：振兴经济关键是市场化改革*</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">中国著名经济学家、天则经济研究所创建人之一茅于轼也承认老龄化问题正在对经济增长产生很大的负面影响。但是，他认为，中国经济有很大潜力可挖，因为跟美国等西方国家比，中国的人均GDP只有人家的几分之一。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">茅于轼说：“就要学日本、学德国、学美国，学什么呢？学市场配置资源，而不是权力配置资源。这个是中国经济增长力巨大的潜力所在。老龄化问题不大，只要有制度上的改变，进一步的市场化改革，中国经济（增长）恢复到9%我想是不会太难的。”</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">茅于轼认为，中国经济改革过去10年间，有些地方反而出现倒退，原因就是权力对资源配置的干预。他举例，中国的金融业是国家垄断，致使该行业损失了巨大的创造财富的机会。茅于轼预计，光是金融改革这一项，就能让经济恢复至少两个百分点。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">世界银行一项统计显示，中国人均寿命从1960年的43.46岁，提高到2010年的73.27岁。出生率下降，老年人口增加，中国的养老制度面临越来越大的挑战，有专家称，现行的养老保险制度如不改变，15年之后退休，连盒饭都吃不起。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">中国目前延后退休年龄的呼声很高，有专家建议，到2045年不分男女，一律65岁退休。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">茅于轼认为，延后退休年龄可以解决一部分问题。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">"人口红利"是指一个国家的劳动年龄人口占总人口比重较大，抚养率比较低，为经济发展创造了有利的人口条件，整个国家的经济成高储蓄、高投资和高增长的局面。</span> <br /> </div><div id="mainMediaBig" style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15.199999809265137px; line-height: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; "></div><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15.199999809265137px; line-height: 22px; background-color: #ffffff; "><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 8px; font-size: 15px; "><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; color: #969595; padding: 0px 0px 0px 6px; margin: 0px; font-size: 10px; float: right; text-transform: uppercase; line-height: 10px; "><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; float: left; padding-right: 6px; display: block; line-height: 15px; "><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; color: #717070; padding: 0px 0px 6px; margin: 0px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 15px; "></div><p style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; color: #717070; padding: 0px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; font-size: 11px; line-height: 11px; "><br /></p></div><div id="ctl00_ctl00_cpAB_cp1_cbcContentBreak" style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15px; "><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 135px; font-size: 15px; "></div></div></div>