“皇族內閣”與“中共壽限”

<div align="left">&nbsp;</div><div><em>誠然,個人的壽命與皇朝的命數、與歷史變革的節奏相比,實在過於短暫。中國士林中瀰漫的悲涼之霧和焦慮心態,大體源出於這種接連受挫而前景迷茫的體驗。實際上,類似的悲涼與焦慮的情結,在各國轉型的進程中都屢有出現。然而,以長程歷史觀之,變遷的端倪仍是不難覺察的。據報載有某宏圖大志的中共官員在想像中華人民共和國一百週年時將如何普天同慶云云。筆者雖不才,亦願效法梁任公而斷言:&#8220;政治現象若仍此不變,則將來世 界字典上決無復以&#8216;中華人民共和國百年&#8217;九字連屬成一名詞者。&#8221; 謂予不信,請以此言為後輩子孫立字據證之。 </em></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div><p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:normal" align="center"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">皇族內閣</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">的前世今生</span></strong></p><strong> </strong><p style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">當今發生於皇城的復辟帝制的鬧劇,令筆者不得不想起</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1911</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">5</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月出台的滿清第一屆也是最後一屆內閣</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8212;&#8212;&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">皇族內閣</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">最高當局對中國國民期望的回應,雖相距一個世紀,卻如出一轍。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> 1911</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年的那個內閣,是在中國一波又一波立憲潮流湧動和國民的熱切期待中浮現出來的。結果,一盆冰水灌頂而下。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">連當年最穩健的立憲派中樞張謇,在得知皇族內閣名單後,也失望嘆曰:</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">均任親貴,非祖制也</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">; </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">復不更事,舉措乖張,全國為之解體。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8230;&#8230;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">朝野上下,不啻加離心力百倍</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">。而輿論領袖梁啓超更是激憤預言,將來世界字典上決無複以</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">宣統五年(</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1913</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">年)四字連屬成一名詞者</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">,</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">誠能並力以推翻此惡政府而改造一良政</span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">府,則一切可迎刃而解。</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;<br /> </span>&nbsp;</p><div><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">從此,立憲派頓成清廷陌路人。立憲之路既絕,革命之軍必興矣。</span></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:normal" align="center"><strong><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">立憲潮流的興起</span></strong></p><strong> </strong><p style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">回望前路,當戊戌變法失敗,六君子喋血之後,中國國勢日下,各國抵制清廷。慈禧惱羞成怒,對多國宣戰,放縱和支持義和團濫殺洋人,引來八國聯軍入京,倉皇逃竄西安的慈禧,在戊戌之後的</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1901</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年,於流亡地西安,急不可待地發布了</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">"</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">預約變法</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">"</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">上諭。於是,屠戮戊戌者不得不執行戊戌烈士的遺囑</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8212;&#8212;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">向憲政移動了。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"> <br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">著名的清末新政,就是在這樣一場大危機中,被迫啟動的。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> 1904</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年,慈禧大赦戊戌變法後被捕的維新黨人。</span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">清朝狀元兼實業家張謇草擬了支持立憲的奏章。後來,駐法公使于</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">7</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月正式奏請立憲。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">在此期間,日俄戰爭爆發,日本大勝。國人的解讀是</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">立憲政治戰勝獨裁統治</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">,立憲之潮於此獲更大助力。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> 1905</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">9</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">2</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">日,廢除科舉考試。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> 1905</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"> 12</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">11</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">日,五名大臣出國考察憲政。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> 1906</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">8 </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">26</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">日,袁世凱到北京,討論五大臣條陳,建議立即實行憲政。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> &nbsp;1906</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">9</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">日,大清國宣示預備立憲,清廷公布了具有歷史意義的《預備立憲之诏》</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"> <br /> <br /> &nbsp;1906</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">11</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">6</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">日的釐定官制上谕,實質上是重組中央政府。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> &nbsp;1907</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">8</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">13</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">日成立了憲政編查館。該館編寫了于</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1908</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年采納的</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">23</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">條《憲法大綱》,這個中國有史以來的第一部憲法,呈日憲特色,其皇室特權甚至超過了日本。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"> <br /> <br /> 1908</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年,按照日本模式,他們訂出所謂九年預備立憲的時間表,最後頒布憲法。計劃于</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1916</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年進行全國選舉,</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1917</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">年召開國會。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"> <br /> <br /> 1908</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">11</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">14</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">、</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">15</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">日,光緒、慈禧相繼去世,清廷風雨飄搖。民間要求速開國會、速立憲法的呼聲日趨高漲。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">此後,從</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1910</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月而</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">6</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月而</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">10</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">月,中國立憲派發動了堪與英國大憲章運動相媲美的三次國會請願運動。數百萬民衆簽名,發生了割臂、割股寫血書之壯舉,國民投入無與倫比的熱情以促成這個古老帝國的變革與新生。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"> <br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">在內外壓力下,清廷不得不下</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">縮改于宣統五年開設議院谕</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">,即將立憲時間由原來的</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1916</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">年提前到</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1913</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年。</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:normal" align="center"><strong><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">皇族內閣:因其保命,所以短命</span></strong></p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1911</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">5</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">月</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">8</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">日,按照修訂後的立憲規劃,應當組建責任內閣。舉國上下,翹首以待。然而,攝政王載沣組建的內閣名單甫一公佈,竟至全國輿論大嘩。</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">何以至此?請看如下內閣名單:</span> </p><div><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">總理大臣慶親王奕劻</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">(宗室),協理大臣那桐(滿)和徐世昌(漢),外務大臣梁敦彥(漢),民政大臣肅親王善耆(宗室),度支大臣載澤(宗室),學務大臣唐景崇(漢),陸軍大</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">臣蔭昌(滿),海軍大臣載洵(宗室),司法大臣紹昌(覺羅),農工商大臣溥倫(宗室),郵傳大臣盛宣懷(漢),理藩大臣壽耆(宗室)。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <img src="http://chinainperspective.com/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2018/Mar/342018EMP.jpg" width="488" height="296" alt="" /><br /> </span></div> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">內閣總共</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">13</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">人,滿族即占到</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">9</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">人,其中皇族</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">7</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">人,漢族竟然只有</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">4</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">人。難怪這一慶親王內閣史稱</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">皇族內閣</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">。國人獲訊,瞠目結舌,抗議之聲,驟然蜂起。立憲派的兩大要求</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8212;&#8212;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">速開國會,責任內閣,所獲得的回應,誠如梁啟超所言</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">: &#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">當舉國請願國會運動最烈之時,而政府猶日思延宕,以宣統八年、宣統五年等相搪塞。鄙人感憤既極,則在報中大聲疾呼,謂政治現象若仍此不變,則將來世</span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">界字典上決無復以宣統五年四字連屬成一名詞者。此語在《國風報》中凡屢見。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221; </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">他在第三次請願之前說</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">現今之政治組織不改,不及三年,國必大亂,以至于亡,而宣統八年(</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">1916</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年)召集國會爲將來歷史上必無之事</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">。</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">連被目為保皇和改良重鎮的梁啓超都悲憤作此預言,則清朝之自蹈死路,時日無多,恐已無幾人懷疑了。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">五個月後,武昌首義,各省通電獨立。皇族內閣隨之解散。企圖以重用血緣親貴和君主近臣以確保江山萬年不墜的心態,來回應危機,回應社會變革的洶洶大勢,其後果如何呢?歷史的判決是:不及半歲,該內閣就早夭了。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">因其保命,所以短命。歷史的邏輯豈不令人深長思之?</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">諷刺的是,正是替清朝草擬了支持君主立憲奏章的滿清狀元張謇,在武昌首義後,又主筆起草了《清帝遜位詔書》,以民軍、清廷、袁世凱三方立約的形式,終結了滿清王朝。</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:normal" align="center"><strong><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">傾聽沈默的心聲</span></strong></p> <p style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">返觀今日之國中,在共產制度瀕臨消亡的歷史潮流中,在一黨壟斷,一人專權,貪腐遍地,內外交困的大勢下,以選擇性反貪翦除異己,進行冷酷清洗;以殘酷的拆遷,驅逐低端人口,實施社會鎮壓;在經濟下滑,民怨沸騰的大背景下,最高當局權令智昏,竟冒天下之大不韙,強力違規操作,欲修改憲法而致終身執政,帝制自為,致使北京政權陷入更深的合法性危機之中。舉國上下,民怨沸騰;四海之內,討伐蜂起。由是,</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">保衛改革開放</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">之聲不絕於耳,</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">拒絕政改,將蹈</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">死路</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">,已成廣泛共識。抗擊之風,起於青萍之末,蕩漾于茶餘飯後、微信之上。國際輿論,清議喧嘩,群情滔滔;國內禁言,道路以目,憤然默對,掉頭以去,以腳投票。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">由此,人們就不難懂得,當辛亥革命驟然降臨,以往曾維護皇室、反對革命的立憲派和地方官何以竟大都抱持幸災樂禍、樂觀其成的態度。其實,若沒有立憲派和地方官們的支持或默認,各省紛紛</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">獨立</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">的革命態勢原本是不可想像的。然而立憲派因失望而與革命派的合流,促成了滿清王朝地崩山摧式的解體。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">試看今日之國中,被肆無忌憚的重返帝制所激怒,以梁公、張謇傳人自詡者,正在不知不覺之間,轉型成為孫文、黃興的傳薪者。這恐怕是當局不得不面對的現實,也是國人不得不傾聽的未來的先聲。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">狀元張謇身份的變遷,為歷史做了最好的註腳,為後人提供了啟迪性範例。</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:normal" align="center"><strong><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">擊破</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;蠻橫政治</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span></strong></p> <p style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">北京最高當局至死也不肯放棄手中的壟斷權力。恰如百年前的滿清親貴,分明楚歌四面,洪水滔滔,仍然視而不見,充耳不聞,沈浸在江山僅為他們的獨家禁臠,任何外人不得染指的甜夢中。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">但是,時間已經不站在他們一邊了。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">也許,他們並非不懂得這點。但作為像毛澤東一樣</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">無所畏懼的</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">唯物主義者</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">,他們不怕天譴,不畏上帝,其共享的心理是:我死之後,哪管洪水滔天。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">所以,我有時在想,現代醫學的進展,在中國,恐怕另有妙用。那就是:延緩政治更新的節奏。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">著名物理學家普朗克曾經說過一句關于科學真理的真理:</span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">一個新的科學真理取得勝利並不是通過讓它的反對者們信服並看到真理的光明,而是通過這些反對者們最終死去,熟悉它的新一代成長起來。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">這一斷言被稱爲普朗克科學定律,並廣爲流傳。</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">平行移植它到中國政治中,它的變體就是:</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">一個新的政治制度取得勝利並不是通過讓它的反對者們信服並看到新社會的光明,而是通過這些反對者們最終死去,熟悉新時代特征的新一代成長起來。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;<br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">這是中國政治殘酷的悲劇。</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">人們所見到的是:慈禧死,民國興。澤東死,改革行。中國</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">2018</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">年這場權力轉換的遊戲,難道必須等待</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">皇帝</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">之壽限?</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height: normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">中國政治的變遷節奏與統治者的壽命亦步亦趨。這種人亡政息的</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">中國特色</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:SimSun;">,不僅使中共將來面臨更為兇險的前景,也使</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">21</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:SimSun;">世紀的中國人蒙受羞辱。何時打破了這一中國特色的政治節律,那時中國政治才真正上了軌道,成為文明人類的一員。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family: SimSun;">雖然,</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">2018</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;">中國的權力蠻橫撒下了滿地雞毛,播種了遍野的失望。但客觀而論,尚未抵達絕境。畢竟,當代的神州已非百年前的皇天后土了。環顧圍繞中國的制度性生態環境,中共黨國已成瀕臨絕種的稀有動物。它的前景是傻子也能看見了。況且,百年奮鬥,仍然留下了諸多足資珍惜的教訓、經驗和精神遺產。這些遺產,在冥冥之中,看護著中國。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family: SimSun;">當下中國,風雨如晦,雞鳴不已。雖狀似百年輪迴,然而已有萌動之新芽參雜其中了。剔除了上一百年最為極端的悲劇場景</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8212;&#8212;20</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;">世紀中國最慘烈濃重的毛澤東陰影</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8212;&#8212;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;">之後,歷史的戲劇,將在不知不覺中漸次呈現。可以預期,在接踵而至的歷史舞台上,我們還會依稀辨認出一系列似曾相識的身影,迷濛之中,或許將碰見新時代的康有為、梁啟超、張謇、孫文、袁世凱、嚴復、蔡元培、胡適、段祺瑞、蔣介石、張君勱、陳獨秀、盧作孚、梁漱溟、羅隆基、彭德懷、鄧小平、胡耀邦、趙紫陽、雷震、殷海光、蔣經國、林昭、遇羅克、顧準、陳寅恪、劉賓雁、方勵之、王若望、司徒華、李慎之</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8230;&#8230; </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;">諸多人物,翩然而至。自然,還會有一些我們全然陌生的人物與戲碼浮出水面。倘若</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">21</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;">世紀的中國幸運地豁免了重大戰爭的浩劫,所有上述共處一堂的身影,他們反省及釐清歷史功罪的智慧、遵守遊戲規則的博弈之道、寬容和解共生的胸懷,作為精神資源和價值資產,將可能引領中國避免重蹈覆轍,走向真正的文明復興。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /> <br /> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family: SimSun;">誠然,個人的壽命與皇朝的命數、與歷史變革的節奏相比,實在過於短暫。中國士林中瀰漫的悲涼之霧和焦慮心態,大體源出於這種接連受挫而前景迷茫的體驗。實際上,類似的悲涼與焦慮的情結,在各國轉型的進程中都屢有出現。然而,以長程歷史觀之,變遷的端倪仍是不難覺察的。據報載有某宏圖大志的中共官員在想像中華人民共和國一百週年時將如何普天同慶云云。筆者雖不才,亦願效法梁任公而斷言:</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8220;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;">政治現象若仍此不變,則將來世</span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;">界字典上決無復以</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8216;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;">中華人民共和國百年</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8217;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;">九字連屬成一名詞者。</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;Times New Roman&quot;;">&#8221;</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:SimSun;"> 謂予不信,請以此言為後輩子孫立字據證之。</span></p><div>&nbsp;</div><div align="center"><em>(重新改寫於2018年3曰3日) <br /></em></div>