北京为平壤政权垮台做准备

<h1><a href="http://gdb.voanews.com/71E2FF10-32EF-435B-8E35-E5DA54B687DC_mw1024_n_s.jpg" rel="ibox" title="朝鲜最高领导人金正恩在朝鲜最高人民会议上(视频截图)" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none; color: #132fbe;"><img alt="朝鲜最高领导人金正恩在朝鲜最高人民会议上(视频截图)" border="0" src="http://gdb.voanews.com/71E2FF10-32EF-435B-8E35-E5DA54B687DC_w640_r1_s_cx6_cy6_cw89.jpg" style="border-style: none; display: block; margin: 10px 0px;" /></a></h1><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; clear: both; line-height: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; width: 640px;"><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; color: #666666; line-height: 13px; margin-top: -6px; padding-top: 0px; display: block; padding-bottom: 12px; clear: both;">朝鲜最高领导人金正恩在朝鲜最高人民会议上(视频截图)</span></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff;">纽约</span><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">&nbsp;&#8212; 英国每日电讯报报道了泄露的中共军方应对北韩垮台的计划。多位中国问题专家在接受美国之音采访时对此消息不表怀疑。他们说,这不仅显示了北韩政权岌岌可危高度危险,而且显示北京在对待北韩问题上出现了惊人的发展。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">中国问题专家章家敦向美国之音表示,中国将此消息泄露出来非常值得玩味,说明了北京在对待北韩的问题上出现了一个惊人的发展。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">章家敦说,&#8220;我不能确定这一文件是否真实,但能确定的是,这是一个惊人的发展。中国长期以来一直拒绝与美国或韩国讨论一旦北韩政权垮台的危机应急计划,而现在的事实是,北京正在考虑这一问题,虽仍不愿意公开讨论,但这确实是一个有别于过去的标志性发展。&#8221;</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">章家敦是《中国即将崩溃》一书的作者。他补充说,中国在为北韩政权垮台做准备是真实的,平壤政权出现危机的可能性相当高。他对中国对此进行考虑并将之付诸军事计划不感到奇怪。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">章家敦认为,北京泄露的这一消息不仅针对北韩也针对美国。他的解读是,&#8220;我认为这说明了北京知道需要开始考虑这些问题,也是要告诉北韩政权,他们走在是一条不稳定之路,中国可能会采取对这一政权不利的措施。所以,我认为中国主要想做的是推动北韩向着更好的方向转变。我想,他们现在可能感到非常受挫折,因为他们做的所有事情都没有产生理想的结果。&#8221;</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">康奈尔大学政府系副教授安德鲁&#183;梅尔特表示,外界以为中国对北韩有很大影响,其实不然。他说,&#8220;如果北韩发生重大意外,对中国的直接影响将是灾难性的,因此我认为,中国一直对此十分谨慎,不是因为中国能做什么而选择不做,而是确实北韩问题对中国而言十分困难。&#8221;</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">纽约华人政治评论家孟玄表示,他看到这个消息后有点诧异。他说,金正恩上台后频繁整肃多名高层人物,包括与中国关系密切的张成泽,使北韩政权显出乱象。根据他的观察,中国领导人习近平显然对金正恩极不满意,尤其是搞核爆炸。孟玄认为,习近平的北韩政策&#8220;包容减少了,强硬增多了。&#8221; 他说:</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">&#8220;最近中国对朝鲜三个月没有出售石油给它。所以北韩这个政权本身,当然外部很难知道它里头真正是怎么回事,可是有相当的可能它会以完全想象不到地一下子就垮台了。作为一个邻国当然知道一定要做最坏的各种准备。&#8221;</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">孟玄认为,中国现在对金正恩可以用恨不得&#8220;去之而后快&#8221;来形容。在被泄露的消息中,使他感兴趣的不是对难民潮涌入所要作的准备,而是暗示鼓动北韩高层人士的叛乱。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">&#8220;它特别提到对高层叛乱的人他们有一个接待的办法,那你那个意思是什么呢?那你的意思是鼓动里面的人去叛乱,去造反,去搞军事政变嘛。&#8221;</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">据日本共同社报道,详尽的紧急应急计划是由中国人民解放军所制定,被泄露的文件包括了拘留北韩领导人和在中国边境建立难民营以应对这一神秘国度爆发民事骚乱时的计划。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" />&nbsp;<br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;" /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff;">这项计划要求采取措施监督中国与北韩879公里长的边境线。计划还说,北韩领导人应该被关在特别拘留所以便对他们进行监督,同时也可以防止他们进一步指挥军事行动或参与有可能损害中国国家利益的行动。</span><br />&nbsp;</div><div id="mainMediaBig" style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 18px; background-color: #ffffff;"></div><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 22px; background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; 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