<p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "><span style="letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial;">佔領運動邁向第70天，隨着佔中三子自首、學聯公開承認繼續佔領無助向政府施壓，佔領運動已呈不日落幕之勢。據聞，北京讓特區政府處理這場佔領運動，只擲下十字真言：「從嚴不流血，六四不重演」，至於具體操作如何，就由特區政府自行揣摩。言下之意是無論如何，由特區政府解決事件，北京不會負責。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "><span style="letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial;">話雖如此，北京卻一直密切留意佔領運動的事態發展，全國人大委員會委員長張德江與政法委書記孟建柱早前便曾南下視察，並與特區官員緊密聯繫；甚至有消息指孟建柱與不少國安一度來港巡察，預備有需要時便出手處理，只是有港人力陳利害後才「忍手」云云。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "><span style="letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial;">北京讓特區政府在台前處理佔領運動，不等於沒有任何反應。有建制派中人指出，北京如今已把佔領運動定性為並非單純的學生運動，認為運動已遭騎劫，不純是追求理想；因此，預計北京對香港2017年的普選安排將收得更緊。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "><span style="letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial;">其實，人大常委早於8月31日公布的普選框架已把香港的政改封得甚嚴，還出乎不少建制派的預計；只是積極一點的溫和建制派依然希望透過擴闊提名委員會選民基礎、透過爭取把公司票改為董事票，以至改變提委會內界別組成，期望提委會可增加多點民主成分，以爭取泛民支持。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "><span style="letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial;">不過，北京自佔領運動開展後，認為香港的政改宜緊不宜寬，如今就連擴大提委會略增民主成分這一可能性也變得渺茫。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "><span style="letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial;">建制派中人認為，如果佔領學生早點見好即收，在與政府對話之後藉機退場，香港2017年的政改安排或許還可以爭取多一點空間；但佔領運動曠日持久，北京對整場運動定性有變，香港再難跟中央討價還價。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "><span style="letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial;">不過，泛民主派早已揚言自公布8.31決定後，他們不傾向投票支持通過政改方案，除非北京肯大方讓提委會大幅擴大民主成分，否則小修小補根本難有機會在立法會獲得通過。所以，北京因着佔領運動而堅拒讓提委會組成有半點鬆動，對政改大局實際影響其實也不大。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-autospace:ideograph-other; layout-grid-mode:char; vertical-align:; "><span style="letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial;">可是，若北京對香港往後的政策一直從嚴，那麼中央與特區政府又如何穩住思變的人心？</span></p>