李嘉诚重组长实和黄释放危险信号:人民币资产或暴跌

<p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style=" font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;"><a href="http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20150111/13420926_0.shtml" target="_blank"><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#004276;text-decoration:none; text-underline:none">港媒:长和系重组公布一日</span> <span style=" font-family:SimSun; color:#004276;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">李嘉诚身家暴增</span><span style="color:#004276;text-decoration:none;text-underline: none">158</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun; color:#004276;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">亿</span></strong></a></span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif; color:#2B2B2B;">2015</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">年新年刚开始,一则重磅新闻,就是李嘉诚宣布重组</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;"><a href="http://finance.ifeng.com/app/hq/hkstock/hk00013/" target="_blank" title="和记黄埔 00013"><strong><span style=" font-family:SimSun; color:#004276;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">和记黄埔</span></strong></a>[</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:red;">13.74%</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">]</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">和</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;"><a href="http://finance.ifeng.com/app/hq/hkstock/hk00001/" target="_blank" title="长江实业 00001"><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#004276;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">长江实业</span></strong></a>[</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:red;">13.93%</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">]</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">,万亿资产,数十年的积累,如此大刀阔斧的背后,定有深刻的目的。李嘉诚是多年的华人首富,也是杰出的世界商业领袖,也是中国最优秀的投资并购大师,其对于趋势的把握无与伦比,同时也是政商界最长袖善舞的高手。其如此重大举动,让人不得不深思。</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">大家会</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;"><a href="http://car.auto.ifeng.com/series/2087/" target="_blank"><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#004276;text-decoration:none; text-underline:none">发现</span></strong></a></span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">,长江实业及和记黄埔重组合并后组成的长和集团会将注册地转至开曼群岛。李嘉诚曾在</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">2013</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">年强调,长实及和黄不会变更注册地点,相信多年后仍在香港。对此,李今日解释,将公司注册地搬去开曼群岛并非对香港没有信心,主要是为了做生意方便。</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">这其实传递了一个信号,就是李嘉诚在撤离,不仅在撤离大陆,还在撤离香港。</span></strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">他肯定是已经闻到了一些变化,不管是政治上的还是经济上的考虑,让他在耄耋之年,不得不做出如此重大的决定。</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">李嘉诚对于趋势的把握,华人世界无人能及,举两个最近最简单的例子:</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif; color:#2B2B2B;">1</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">、</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">2013</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">年和</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">2014</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">年上半年,李嘉诚撤离中国楼市,当时所有人,包括地产界的人都在批评李嘉诚。现在看看,大家都要佩服李嘉诚的精明和洞察,因为这之后,中国的房地产就已经步入了调整,而他是在大陆房</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;"><a href="http://house.ifeng.com/special/loushipaomo/" target="_blank"><strong><span style=" font-family:SimSun; color:#004276;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">地产泡沫</span></strong></a></span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">最顶峰退出大陆市场的。</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif; color:#2B2B2B;">2</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">、李嘉诚私有化自己的上市公司,大举进军欧洲,尤其是英国市场,将英国很多公共事业领域的资产纳入囊中,实际上是抄底了欧洲资产。</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">那李嘉诚为什么要撤离呢?要知道如此万亿资产的重组、改变注册地等如此重大事项的背后,必然有更重大的因素。我隐约感到了这背后很危险的变化:</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><strong><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">1</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">、</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif; color:#2B2B2B;"><a href="http://app.finance.ifeng.com/hq/rmb/list.php" target="_blank"><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#004276;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">人民币</span></a></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">和</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;"><a href="http://app.finance.ifeng.com/hq/rmb/list.php" target="_blank"><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#004276;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">人民币</span></a></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">资产可能会暴跌。</span></strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">在暴跌到来之前,最好的方法就是远离这些资产,李嘉诚之前甩卖大陆的房地产,现在全力进军欧洲,都是明证。人民币和人民币资产,还能保值,并能获得更好的收益吗?难!房地产泡沫、信贷泡沫、地方政府债务泡沫、投资过剩等等,中国的经济现在已经处于危险之中。</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif; color:#2B2B2B;">2</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">、我们可以观察到,实际上现在</span><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">资金外流已经很严重,大量的资本在离开中国,包括我们观察到的</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;"><a href="http://app.finance.ifeng.com/data/mac/month_idx.php?type=016&amp;symbol=01602" target="_blank"><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#004276;text-decoration:none; text-underline:none">外汇储备</span></a></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">下降、外汇占款下降等,都在说明这个问题。</span></strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">而李嘉诚只不过是逃离大军中的一员而已,只是顺应趋势。其实一个李嘉诚撤离也许不是大问题,怕的就是千百个类似李嘉诚的大企业家撤离,还有成千上万的外资企业撤离。</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif; color:#2B2B2B;">3</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">、中国的政治氛围发生了一些变化。不管是香港占中还是大陆全面的反腐,其实都说明了中国的政治氛围的变化。李嘉诚年纪已经很大,早晚要将公司交给儿子打理,但是他的儿子们并没有李嘉诚在政商界长袖善舞的本领,因此离开中国,可能是对其家族的一种保护。在自己去世之前做好战略安排,这也是李嘉诚的高瞻远瞩。</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">李嘉诚的撤离,是重大的风向标,从经济的角度分析,中国的经济已经很危险,很难获得更高的回报,中国经济可能长期缓慢增长,泡沫的破灭可能导致人民币和人民币资产严重贬值;从政治的角度讲,可能是为了保护自己家族和后代。总之,令人无限感慨和伤感!</span></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><em><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">背景新闻:首富一年时间抛售内地物业</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">700</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">亿</span></strong></em></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><em><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">据彭博亿万富豪指数截至去年</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">12</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">月</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">22</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">日的统计,李嘉诚以</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">294</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">亿</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;"><a href="http://app.finance.ifeng.com/hq/rmb/quote.php?symbol=USD" target="_blank"><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#004276;text-decoration:none; text-underline:none">美元</span></strong></a></span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">重夺亚洲首富宝座。</span></em></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><em><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">近年来,李嘉诚近期的投资方向出现了一些微妙的变化,一方面是大量抛售商业地产项目,一方面,将投资目光聚焦在了创新科技领域,包括人工智能、大数据分析、在线广告和新媒体等。包括投资了旧金山一家能有效降低人体胆固醇摄入的</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">&#8220;</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">人造蛋</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">&#8221;</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">生产企业</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">HamptonCreek</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">公司;用大数据来研究传染病传播的医疗分析公司</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">Bluedot</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">;投资了</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">300</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">万美元给为消费者提供健康消费品的</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">MarkOne</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">公司;参与投资了</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">3D</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">打印技术和生物组织工程结合的</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">ModernMeadow</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">公司。</span></em></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><em><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">不过,在内地房地产市场中,从</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">2013</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">年</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">7</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">月高调宣布出售百佳后,到去年的</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">11</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">月</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">10</span><span style=" font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">日,李嘉诚抛售</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">39 </span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">亿元重庆大都会,算下来,短短一年多时间,李嘉诚已成功套现超过</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif;color:#2B2B2B;">700</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;">亿港元。</span></em></p> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 18.75pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 18pt; background: white;"><span style="font-family:SimSun;color:#2B2B2B;"><em>作者為喜投网董事长,中国知名投资人,货币专家</em></span></p> <p><em>&nbsp;</em></p>