建制派要員：原地踏步CY勢連任 – 纵览中国-China In Perspective

<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">主管香港事務的全國人大委員長張德江強調，人大常委會對正確實施《基本法》和依法推進政制發展負憲制責任，有必要就普選特首若干核心要素和相關問題作出決定，而決定為下一步具體普選辦法「確定了原則、指明了方向」。有重量級建制派人士指出，一旦政改原地踏步，料行政長官梁振英很大機會獲北京支持連任。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">人大常委會去年8月底定下框架，限制提委會組成、出閘門檻、候選人數。張德江昨天在人大常委會工作報告中總結過去一年工作時強調，人大的決定是負起其憲制責任，落實「一國兩制」方針和《基本法》、推動循序漸進發展民主、依法順利實現2017年普選特首目標具有重要意義。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">有重量級建制派人士在北京分析，今次政改通過的機會是五十五十，現時距離正式表決仍有時間，有溫和建制中人已私下盡力「做緊嘢」，包括考慮有什麼可行方案和準備接觸各界游說等。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">該名建制派指出，今次中央不會如上次政改一樣臨尾改變，當日是前特首曾蔭權在背後出了很多力，「今時唔同往日」。如果政改不通過，須沿用1200人選委會選出特首，特首梁振英的連任機會高，因為中央沒有理由不讓他做。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">很大機會重推23條立法<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">該名建制派要員指中央大力「挺梁」是因為對方「聽話」，「叫佢點就點，（佔中期間中央）話六字真言：不退讓、不流血，佢同你捱足七十九日」，加上前兩任特首董建華和曾蔭權上任後期都民望低落，中央會理解梁振英的情況。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">這位建制派人士說，一旦梁振英連任，很大機會重推23條立法，因為下屆政府未必立刻重啟政改，屆時因應逐漸升溫的「港獨」爭議而集中精力研究立法，完成憲制責任。但若政改通過的話，局面就會改變；因此泛民否決政改，變相成為梁振英最大助選團。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">民建聯人大代表葉國謙也認同若政制原地踏步，梁振英有連任優勢。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">有資深政協委員認為，梁振英推出不少好政策，只是反對派阻撓，相信若一人一票下，他未必不能勝出。但該政協對政改通過感到悲觀，認為部分建制派過分看高外國勢力的影響力。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; ">政務司司長林鄭月娥日前出席一活動時表示，市民可藉普選決定特首是否應連任。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> 民主黨何俊仁強調，他們反對的並非梁振英，而是選舉制度，「爛透制度仍會選出第二個梁振英」；他認為這種說法是建制派造勢要港人「袋住先」，但不相信港人會「咁冇智慧」。