<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">時光飛逝，政改第二輪諮詢已告落幕，至於可有轉機，一切端視特府4月中提出的政改方案，以及中央與泛民會否再度會面溝通。雖然中央官員過去一周就政改依然擺出強硬姿態，強調不存在讓步、不存在否決後可重啟、更不存在撤回人大常委8．31決定，但泛民主派仍然表示願與中央官員見面，當面陳述意見。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">過去兩年，雖然泛民主派表示願意與中央官員就政改問題溝通，但往往瞻前顧後，顧慮多多，這是由於汲取2010年民主黨與中方政改談判的教訓，往後雙方猜忌重重，令政改問題一直膠着。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">世事總有因果循環。今次政改困局的緣由，當中應包括2010年政改通過後，北京「跳票」未有兌現承諾繼續與泛民對話——北京拒絕與泛民對話，據說是受建制派意見的左右。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">2010年政改通過前，先有由民主黨等溫和泛民與學者組成真普選聯盟，與中央代表、中聯辦官員談判，商量政改安排。據了解，當時真普聯獲北京官員承諾，當2010年政改方案獲得通過後，中央願意繼續與泛民保持溝通，就日後的普選安排磋商，以謀取共識；可是這個承諾「講完就算」，最終沒有兌現。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">回頭看當年政改一役，民主黨與中央談判之餘，另一邊廂建制派「跟車太貼」，一直反對民主黨的超級區議會議席建議，後來該建議獲得中央支持，建制派只好急忙轉軚，顯得狼狽萬分。民主黨那時因為支持政改讓政制得以走前一步，加上還未有什麼「票債票償」的狙擊行動，該黨在隨後的民意調查中得到的支持度顯著上升。政改通過的結果有利於民主黨，相反其對手建制派政黨尤其是第一大黨民建聯，則落得焦頭爛額。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">據聞建制派自此便極力反對中央與民主黨等泛民就政改保持對話，以免泛民的政治光譜佔領溫和建制一環，結果過去五年的政改討論一片空白。另一方面，政局出現一浪接一浪的狙擊民主黨行動，令中央與泛民就政改談判的基礎變得薄弱；政府今回再推政改諮詢，在沒有溝通前提、沒有互信基礎之下，政改之路異常崎嶇難行。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">所以，若今次政改拉倒，泛民投票反對固然是原因之一，但建制與北京未有搭建對話平台，實在也有責任；加上一個8．31強硬框架，箍死政改，致令泛民毫無轉身機會。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> </p><p><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">由是觀之，眼下的政治困局，一切都有其因由，殊非偶然。</span></p>