政改方案一出滾動民調上馬 – 纵览中国-China In Perspective

<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">政改方案公布在即，首個政改大型民意調查最快在方案公布翌日隨即上馬。港大民意研究計劃、理大社會政策研究中心及中大傳播與民意調查中心將聯合進行滾動式大型民調，公布市民對方案的支持度，直至方案表決為止。部分泛民議員稱會參考民調結果，但不認為對投票意向構成壓力。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">每輪訪問千人 只問支持否<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">理大社會政策研究中心主任鍾劍華向本報表示，希望民調填補政府不做大型政改民調空缺，為社會提供參考。港大民研總監鍾庭耀接受查詢時表示，3間機構將自資聯合調查，也歡迎外界贊助，不過調查方法和細節由調查機構決定。民調計劃每輪訪問約1000名市民，規模與立法會選舉時滾動式民調相若。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">被問及民調是否希望改變議員意向，鍾庭耀強調，調查出發點是提供科學民意數據，及推廣專業民意研究標準，議員如何參考結果並非他們的考慮。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">鍾劍華亦說，調查不針對立法會應否通過方案一點，加上考慮開支因素，會偏向「簡單直接」、詢問受訪者是否「支持」方案，而不會問及「立法會應否通過政改方案」、「不通過誰要負最大責任」、「應否承諾2022年重啟政改」等問題。3個機構下周一公布詳情。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">劉慧卿指不構成投票壓力<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">民主黨主席劉慧卿表明，不反對坊間進行民調作參考，強調不會構成壓力，更反問：「這麼容易有壓力，怎樣從政呢？」民協馮檢基表示，任何民調結果都會考慮，但僅限參考。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">民建聯葉國謙認為，任何民調都是好事，但相信約六成人支持、三成人反對、餘下一成人不表態的局面大致已定，直言泛民只會顧自己的三成忠實支持者，故民調對泛民的影響力不大。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">中大政治與行政學系高級講師蔡子強指出，民調是「雙刃刀」，對泛民和政府均會構成壓力，尤其政府一邊要議員顧及民意，結果若對政府不利變成自打嘴巴。2010年時政府稱當時的政改方案獲六成民意支持，蔡子強分析，今次最少要超過六成半才能對泛民構成足夠壓力。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">未有議員支持全民投票<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">另外，鍾庭耀昨天在電台節目表示，至今仍未有議員願參與全民投票綑綁投票意向，承認如今全民投票成事機會較低，並不點名批評有議員「有時候推動全民投票，在這些關鍵時候又不要」。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> <p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; ">泛民飯盒會召集人梁家傑重申，去年70多萬市民參與6．22民間投票，要求否決不符國際標準的方案，故泛民已有足夠授權否決。曾與鍾庭耀會面的自由黨主席鍾國斌說泛民與建制派都不參與，故不會考慮建議。<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> 鍾庭耀則希望議員在政府提出方案後，再花一至兩個星期思考全民投票建議，「要就要，不要就不要」，若仍一人支持都沒有，「我們（全民投票）差不多可以收工。」