<p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">政改方案出台前夕，政府消息人士突然公開一張14人的泛民「撬票名單」，民主黨、民協馮檢基、公民黨湯家驊、郭榮鏗、工黨張國柱、公專聯莫乃光、梁繼昌、教育界葉建源、衞生服務界李國麟等人均「不幸」上榜。這群被視為「有得傾」的泛民愈被點名，就愈須公開強調「企硬」，否則嫌疑難洗。難怪有泛民質疑，梁振英政府到底有多大誠意爭取這14人的票？</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">「撬票名單」中，有6人來自傳統功能組別。泛民中人分析，功能組別議員承受的壓力，隨時大過直選議員，事關功能組別選舉採用「單議席單票制」、最高票者當選，動輒要取得多達50%選民支持才能入局，相反直選議席採用「名單比例代表制」，獲得政治光譜上部分選民支持、不足10%也可以當選。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">翻查上屆立法會選舉，泛民在功能組別議席的選情激烈，例如資訊科技界莫乃光以2828票，擊敗得2063票的譚偉豪；法律界郭榮鏗以2528票，勝過得1970票的王桂壎；會計界梁繼昌得7701票，壓過得6538票的林智遠等。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">因此，泛民綑綁否決政改的同時，如何平衡界別選民對「袋住先」的訴求，對功能組別議員來說也可謂一大考驗。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">至於因支持上次政改而長期飽受狙擊的民主黨，雖然多次強硬表明否決人大8．31框架下的政改方案，但政府仍希望該黨可發揮牽頭作用，帶領功能組別議員一同跟着轉身。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">有泛民則估計，若民主黨6票不動，葉建源的一票也肯定不會動，事關教協和民主黨關係密切，教育界的一席更本是多年來份屬民主黨。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">也有泛民指出，北京兩會期間突有建制派高人打「CY牌」，揚言不通過政改便會令梁振英連任，這顯示北京深明發動民意戰才有機會令政改出現轉機。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> </p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">多個機構已揚言會做政改民調，其中，由民主黨李華明等組成的「政改民意關注組」，據聞計劃在政府公布政改方案後舉行第五輪民調，直接詢問市民是否支持方案，預計4月底公布結果；在6月政改表決前一星期，則舉行最後一次調查，相信這結果將對政改甚具指標性。</span></p><p style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:0.0000pt; padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt ; layout-grid-mode:char; text-autospace:ideograph-numeric; "> </p><p><span style="font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 12pt;">泛民多次強調，不會因為民調結果而接受「袋住先」。事情如何發展，不排除出現曲折離奇的情節。</span></p>