<h1><br /><img alt="香港天际线" src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/660/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2016/01/26/160126043401_hongkong_skyline_976x549_gettyimages_nocredit.jpg" width="976" height="549" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; color: #bdbdbd; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; -webkit-user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block; background-color: #111111;" /></h1><div property="articleBody" style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, \’Microsoft YaHei\’, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, \’WenQuanYi Micro Hei\’, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 14.5455px; margin: 0px 53.7642px 0px auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #111111;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image copyright</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.5625rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6);">Getty Images</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">国际信贷评级机构穆迪周六将香港展望评级由“稳定”调整至“负面”。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">国际信贷评级机构穆迪（Moody\’s Investors Service）周六（3月12日）将香港展望评级由“稳定”调整至“负面”，香港财政司司长曾俊华则指穆迪的评估“完全错误”。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">穆迪指，由于香港与中国大陆在政治、经济及金融的联系日益密切，香港信用状况将会跟随中国大陆，而香港与大陆的政治联系将会影响香港的体制实力。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">另外，穆迪认为中国经济及金融风险亦影响香港。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">该机构指出，中港密切关系在三方面显示：第一，香港与中国大陆的贸易紧密；香港的银行系统在大陆亦有业务；政治和体制的密切关系，体现在“一国两制”在执行上的张力。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">穆迪还提到香港的政治风险有上升之势。短期内，尤其在2017年香港特首选举前，政治情势有可能更加紧张，并影响政府施政。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">至于中期的政治风险，穆迪提到中国大陆的影响力日增，香港体制有可能失去部分独立性。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">穆迪指，未来五年，香港的生产总值（GDP）只会有微弱增长。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">另外，穆迪维持本港AA1主权评级。</p><h2>曾俊华：穆迪评估“完全错误”</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">香港财政司司长曾俊华形容评估“完全错误”，并指“中国风险”其实是“中国机会”。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">曾俊华说：“香港一直按照着‘一国两制’，实践高度自治，我们不认同穆迪对香港政治环境的观点。”</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">政府的新闻稿指：“穆迪的新闻稿中关于内地干预香港的政策制定和落实，以及因与内地政治连系而产生政治风险的意见，纯属猜测和主观陈述，缺乏理据支持。”</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">曾俊华亦指，其他评级机构维持对香港的评级。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">国际货币基金组织（IMF）在1月19日发表报告，指中国大陆之前对香港经济的有利影响，有可能会转变成挑战。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">不过该组织指，香港有财务及金融系统上的“缓冲”，假如加息速度缓慢，及大陆经济放缓速度稳定的话，香港经济及金融系统将不会受到太大的影响。</p></div>