<div><img src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/660/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2016/09/22/160922131621_china_population_512x288_xinhua.jpg" width="512" height="288" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; -webkit-user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" alt="" /></div><div property="articleBody" style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 53.7642px 0px auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image copyright</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">XINHUA</span></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">曾是中国执行一胎政策最严厉地区之一的湖北宜昌市政府，最近发出公开信，号召机关单位的党员、团员、年轻干部，带头生二孩，引发中国社会高度关注。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">9月18日，宜昌市卫计委在《致市直机关事业单位全体共产党员共青团员》的公开信中，号召“年轻的同志要从我做起，年老的同志要教育和督促自己的子女。每个同志都要成为宣传员”。</p><h2>“二胎好 一胎险”</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">宣传什么？“宣传两个子女的好处和一个子女的风险，激发群众特别是育龄妇女对生育二孩的认同感，引导群众负责任、有计划地生育第二个子女。”</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">公开信要求党员干部向群众晓以利害，如果大家都不想生二胎，“会给我市经济社会发展和 群众家庭幸福带来极大风险和危害，直接后果就是独生子女家庭风险加剧、人口老龄化、劳动力资源短缺和城市化进程滞后，进而影响劳动生产率与城市的综合竞争力。”</p><h2>严峻现实</h2><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6449px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/624/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2013/07/01/130701142438_china_aged_population_640x360_ap.jpg" datasrc="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/320/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2013/07/01/130701142438_china_aged_population_640x360_ap.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; -webkit-user-select: none; width: 616.207px; transition: opacity 0.5s ease-in; display: block;" alt="" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image copyright</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">AP</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">严厉执行了几十年的一胎制政策已经导致中国劳动力全面萎缩，无法应对人口迅速老化的局面，到本世纪中叶，每三个中国人中，就有一个年龄超过60岁。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">公开信没有像群众交代的一个背景是，由中南财经政法大学专家教授组成的一个9人课题组，在2015年8月对宜昌的生育现状做了一次全面调研。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">调研的结论:“宜昌市的持续低生育水平已经严重影响到该地区的社会经济发 展进程…政策的积极干预已经势在必行。”</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这份名为《低生育地区生育政策响应》的报告中说，目前宜昌育龄妇女人均有0.72个孩子，显示宜昌已进入超低生育水平，而且二孩政策推出后，该地区的生育率并没有发生明显的反弹，下降趋势还在持续。</p><h2>人口危机</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">人口出生下降的趋势和它带来的挑战，显然不止宜昌一地。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">宜昌的调研显示，宜昌从2000年开始就进入超低生育水平，这是与中国整体的人口出生率下降同步的。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">根据中国国家统计局公布的数据测算结果显示，2000年之后中国的总和生育率已经降到了1.3以下，并呈持续走低之势。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国目前正面临30年来最低的经济增长。与此同时，中国也正面临着生育率降低和快速老龄化的人口危机。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">严厉执行了几十年的一胎制政策已经导致中国劳动力全面萎缩，无法应对人口迅速老化的局面，到本世纪中叶，每三个中国人中，就有一个年龄超过60岁。 有人口专家指出，生育率不足1的地方主要是北京、上海、广州等一线城市，但这些大城市因外地人的不断流入，整体而言还能维持。相比之下，三线城市和广大农村人口出生率下降更令人堪忧。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">正是在这样的背景下，中国去年宣布放宽一胎制计划生育政策，允许所有的夫妇生育第二胎。</p><h2>新常态</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">但宜昌的调研报告称，低生育水平已经成为中国人口的基本国情之一。与中国历史文化传统相似的新加坡、日本、韩国，在经过长时间的控制人口政策后，都选择了鼓励生育的政策，效果却不 尽如人意。研究宜昌市的人口转变过程，可以为中国人口政策的选择提供参考与借鉴。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">从网民的爆料看，要共产党员起模范带头作用生二胎的，不仅是宜昌。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6449px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/624/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2016/09/22/160922133340_china_population_624x624__nocredit.jpg" datasrc="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/320/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2016/09/22/160922133340_china_population_624x624__nocredit.jpg" width="624" height="624" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; -webkit-user-select: none; width: 616.207px; transition: opacity 0.5s ease-in; display: block;" alt="" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image copyright</span></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">还有网民搜集整理了鼓励二胎的新世纪计生口号。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6449px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/624/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2016/09/22/160922133314_slogan640.jpg" datasrc="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/320/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2016/09/22/160922133314_slogan640.jpg" width="640" height="111" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; -webkit-user-select: none; width: 616.207px; transition: opacity 0.5s ease-in; display: block;" alt="" /></span></figure><h2>生育仍是计划</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">宜昌的红头文件让中国网民炸了窝。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">有人感慨：“从红头文件牵牛扒房，到红头文件鼓励生二孩，只是短短几年时间，却让人有沧海桑田之感。令人错愕的不是政策斗转之快，而是官方措辞的自相矛盾。所谓既要“宣传计划生育的巨大成绩”，又要宣传“生育两个子女的好处”——如此既想又想的表述，何异于左右手互博？”（文字修理工 ）</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">有人质问： “这算不算官方主动承认强制一胎化的政策是错误的？”（知乎用户）</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">有人批判： 不管是一胎还是两孩，都是国家计划生育的一部分。我是坚决反对的。只是想知道那些支持计划生育的人是不是赞成，能不能用实际行动来表明自己支持？触及利益比触及灵魂更难呀。（富贵猫 ）</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">有人揣测：“当初为了推行计划生育，可谓无所不用其极；如今为了推行多生孩子，会不会无所不用其极？”（匿名用户）</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">牵牛扒房恐怕是难以催生二胎的。宜昌的课题组模拟了发放补贴、增加宅基地面积等四个方面的激励政策，结果发现，“入托或入幼儿园免费”对激励生二孩最有效。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">参与课题研究的中南财经政法大学副教授石智雷在接受澎湃新闻采访时讲的一番话，或许能为二胎新政做一个脚注：</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“如果公共服务不先行、不到位，即使生育政策放开，很多家庭也不敢轻易生育二胎，‘生下来就是给社会添堵、然后在社会受苦’，成为家庭放弃二孩生育行为的重要原因。”</p></div>