<h1></h1><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><img src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/1705F/production/_93330349_hao-wu_tw.jpg" alt="国民党主席洪秀柱（右）与国民党副主席郝龙斌（左）受邀" width="660" height="371" align="left" /><br />国民党将进行第7届主席选举，目前有3位实力经验丰富人选。台学者认为，这是国民党要把握的最后团结契机。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">即将于5月20日进行的中国国民党第7届主席选举，目前表态的除了现任党主席洪秀柱外，还有前副总统吴敦义和前台北市长郝龙斌等3人。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">台湾师范大学政治所教授范世平向BBC中文网记者表示，这3位都是大家不陌生的老面孔、从政经验也丰富。他还分析了这些候选人的特长。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">洪秀柱：小辣椒继续固盘？</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">国民党现任党主席洪秀柱接任党主席以来始终保持着鲜明个人特色。洪秀柱在立场上相当坚定明确，尤其在两岸方针上，以"一中同表"取代当时国民党主流的"一中各表"，在台湾政坛掀起广泛讨论。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6354px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/3BC7/production/_93330351_hong_xiuzhu.jpg" datasrc="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/3BC7/production/_93330351_hong_xiuzhu.jpg" alt="洪秀柱" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.198px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">CNA</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">面对陆续有人出马参选，洪秀柱表示乐见，也表示党内一定要带给人民耳目一新的选举</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">外省浙江籍的洪秀柱，背后也有相当死忠的国民党外省铁票支持，其中忠诚度相当高的"黄复兴党部"党员，更是在上次主席补选中给予相当大的帮助。预计在这次选举中也会扮演关键票仓。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">性格心直口快的"小辣椒"洪秀柱常发表出乎意料的言论。范世平认为，洪秀柱有其现任优势，动用的资源范围较广。加上她之前频频出访其他国家，并自认是"孙中山总理"遗训的奉行者，一些有理想的人还是会跟从。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但范世平觉得洪秀柱的两岸路线太过急统，如果继续这样下去，国民党可能会变得愈来愈边缘化，因此中国大陆可能会采取"弃洪保吴"战略，让国民党有再度壮大机会。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">吴敦义：本外省新共主？</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">吴敦义曾任南投县长、高雄市长，一路到行政院长与副总统职位，在各阶层的政治历练都很足够，也相当能得到党内支持。这次出马参选，也是抱持着"故总统经国先生"精神，甚至还一度对此哽咽。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6354px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/89E7/production/_93330353_tw_wu.jpg" datasrc="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/89E7/production/_93330353_tw_wu.jpg" alt="曾任副总统的吴敦义" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.198px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">CNA</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">曾任副总统的吴敦义，开记者会表示，自己会大公无私，做好党的负责人。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">范世平分析认为，本省籍的吴敦义在国民党本土派及中南部势力中，拥有相当大的影响力。加上他说话干练而圆滑，如果他当选，应该会把目前国民党的形象给拉回来。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">而在两岸路线上，吴敦义目前的一中各表也是最为妥当。范世平以最近台湾"天下杂志"民调举例，蔡英文不提"九二共识"，仍有57.4%民众支持。他估计吴敦义也是会冷处理两岸政策，先把台湾失去的民心赢回来。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但是范世平强调，吴敦义本土派思维，两岸态度如果跟现任的民进党没有太明显区隔，都是"冷处理"的话，也许国民党内的外省派愈来愈反抗。他认为国民党本外省两派抗衡是一定会有，但吴敦义当选，可能冲击会小一些。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">郝龙斌：副主席将再起？</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">现年64岁的郝龙斌，跟前面两位候选人比较起来，仍是属于"中壮年"。外省江苏籍第二代的郝龙斌，父亲是台湾前参谋总长、行政院长郝柏村。也因此郝龙斌在国民党军系、退伍军人中，拥有相当高的知名度。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6354px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/130C7/production/_93332087_tw_hao.jpg" datasrc="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/130C7/production/_93332087_tw_hao.jpg" alt="现任副主席，也曾任台北市长的郝龙斌" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.198px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">CNA</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">现任副主席，曾任台北市长的郝龙斌表示，参选不是谋求其他大位当跳板，他要一场无私的选举。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">郝龙斌的从政经验相当丰富，从立委、环保署长到台北市长，也是现任党内副主席。这次出来参选，郝龙斌直言"党内的方向有问题，需要重新沟通，才能团结"。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">范世平则认为，郝龙斌跟洪秀柱的重迭性过大，都是外省籍且在退伍老军人中都有势力，会瓜分掉票源。加上郝龙斌当完台北市长后，并没有高升内阁，去基隆市选立委也输掉，声势已不同于以往。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">范世平大胆预测，洪秀柱或是郝龙斌其中一人会被劝退，而郝龙斌的可能性相当高，要是这两人还是都选，等于是给了吴敦义很好机会。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">本土化？维持原路？</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">面对只剩几个月的主席选战，国民党必须统一党内论调，尤其是两岸路线与台湾民生等。范世平回顾这阵子中国大陆的文攻武吓，仍未能让总统蔡英文说出"一中"，未来国民党也许该思考，如果要赢回选民支持度，就要着重其他方面。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">归结这三人出马，他认为中国大陆最终还是会乐见吴敦义当选，可能让国民党有新的生机，但吴敦义要是本土化更彻底，把中国国民党变身成台湾国民党，也不是不无可能，那这可能是中国大陆要去衡量的。</p>