<figure style="color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="为婴儿作按摩的重庆一个幼儿中心" src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/0945/production/_93737320_974bd75c-db56-4213-95f7-e149adc0050b.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; line-height: 1.14286; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: 0.25px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">AFP</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; line-height: 1.33333; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">中国开放二胎生育政策，政府非常关注这一政策的实施效果</span></figcaption></figure><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 28px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国国家卫生计生委基层指导司司长杨文庄周日（1月22日）表示，2016年中国出生人口明显增加，二孩及以上占比大幅提升。自2000年以来，2016年是人口出生最多的一年。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2015年10月，中共中央全会决定结束了中国实行几十年的"独生子女"政策，并从2016年1月1日 开始正式实施这一政策。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">据杨文庄透露，从2003年到2013年间，中国出生人口始终在1600万上下波动。2016年，根据国家统计局的推算，出生人口超过了1786万，生育水平提高到1.7以上，二孩及以上占比超过了45%。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2015年7月底，联合国人口署发布《2015年世界人口展望》，预计中国人口到本世纪末将回落到10.04亿。这是联合国的中预测值，其低预测值是6.13亿，高预测值则为15.55亿。</p><figure style="color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6449px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/13DDD/production/_93737318_6f7c4918-0618-4c59-a266-7d5987f83e7b.jpg" datasrc="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/13DDD/production/_93737318_6f7c4918-0618-4c59-a266-7d5987f83e7b.jpg" alt="2001年北京的一幅大广告宣传计划生育" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.207px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; line-height: 1.14286; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: 0.25px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; line-height: 1.33333; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">2001年北京附近拍摄的这张照片显示中国正处在在大利提倡计划生育的时期</span></figcaption></figure><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">联合国人口署的预测曾在中国学界引起激烈的辩论，有学者认为这一预测过于悲观。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">根据联合国中预测方案，中国2010—2015年的总和生育率被假设为1.55，2015—2020年为1.59，2020—2030年为1.66，2045—2050年为1.74，2095—2100年为1.81。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">本次中国官方提出的生育水平1.7， 虽然略高于联合国预测的1.59， 但仍然低于正常完成世代更替所需达到的2.1的生育率。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">基于中国生育率过低的现状，不少专家预计，中国很可能在2020年后实现自主生育。</p>