<p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; background-color: #ffffff;">中朝盟友关系裂痕加大。平壤威胁再次核试验，令北京不安。官方的战略没有变化，但幕后也有传言。</p><div style="margin: 7px 0px 10px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E8%AD%A6%E5%91%8A%E8%90%BD%E7%A9%BA%E9%87%91%E6%AD%A3%E6%81%A9%E7%88%B1%E6%9E%81%E7%94%9F%E6%81%A8/a-38660689?&zhongwen=simp#" link="/overlay/image/article/38660689/38635474" rel="nofollow" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none; cursor: pointer;"><img src="http://www.dw.com/image/38635474_303.jpg" title="Nordkorea Kim Jong Un (picture-alliance/Jiji Press/M. Matsutani)" alt="Nordkorea Kim Jong Un (picture-alliance/Jiji Press/M. Matsutani)" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px; height: auto;" /></a><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #888888; padding: 4px 0px; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: 720px;"></p></div><div style="margin-bottom: 30px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #3e3e3e; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";"><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">（德国之声中文网）北京也无计可施。朝鲜周一（5月2日）再次宣称已做好准备进行新的核试验。对北京的政治领导层来说，这与五一节假日的气氛一点也不吻合。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">刚刚在上周五，中国外长王毅在联合国纽约总部再次提议：朝鲜停止核计划和导弹计划，美韩则停止军事演习。双方都要采取行动。但无人回应。中国外长的呼声只得到空空的回响，显得十分无力。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";">幕后的传言</span></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">北京的官方外交辞令没有太大变化。但幕后也有些传言。杨希雨曾在外交部多年参与朝核六方会谈。如今他就职于外交部直属的中国国际问题研究院。他认为，中国与邻国朝鲜的关系已降至一个低点。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">杨希雨表示，对朝鲜核计划的不同看法越来越多地浮出水面。究其原因，是因为平壤领导层的立场改变。中国的目标仍是朝鲜半岛无核化。因此，双边关系目前是数十年来最糟糕的。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";">是否会加强制裁？</span></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">中国国家媒体公开猜测接下来可能的步骤：中国停止对朝鲜供油。朝鲜90%的能源需求依赖于中国。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">杨希雨认为，如果朝鲜继续测试核武，中国会做出反应，而且比以往严厉得多。他也指出朝鲜核试验对中国边境地区的后果，称中国对此十分忧虑，不能任由朝鲜为所欲为。</p><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both;"><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E8%AD%A6%E5%91%8A%E8%90%BD%E7%A9%BA%E9%87%91%E6%AD%A3%E6%81%A9%E7%88%B1%E6%9E%81%E7%94%9F%E6%81%A8/a-38660689?&zhongwen=simp#" link="/overlay/image/article/38660689/38392635" rel="nofollow" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none; cursor: pointer;"><img border="0" width="700" height="394" src="http://www.dw.com/image/38392635_401.jpg" title="中国国家主席习近平曾多次警告朝鲜不要进行核试验，却没有效果。" alt="China G20 – Xi Jinping (Getty Images/AFP/H. H. Young)" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px; height: auto;" /></a><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #888888; padding: 4px 0px; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: 720px;">中国国家主席习近平曾多次警告朝鲜不要进行核试验，却没有效果。</p></div><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";">警告全落空</span></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">对中国而言，朝鲜核试验危及到国家安全和边境地区居民。中国国家主席习近平曾多次警告朝鲜不要进行核试验，却没有效果。今年2月，中国宣布到年底前停止进口朝鲜煤炭。这也未产生明显的作用。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">杨希雨表示，北京的"红线"就是：不能打仗，不能混乱。北京的立场与华盛顿在伊拉克、叙利亚、利比亚的做法不同。"不是制造更多问题，而是解决问题。"</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";">谁有良方？</span></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">但北京也缺乏良方。官方战略仍是避免冲突激化，但中国的耐心也走向尽头。与朝鲜的传统盟友关系在中国国内如今也受到批评。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">历史学者、中国国内最知名的朝鲜专家之一沈志华不久前在大连大学发表演讲，呼吁放弃与朝鲜的传统盟友关系。他说，朝鲜是中国潜在的敌人，而韩国是"可能的朋友"。这篇演讲没有受到审查和封杀，是一个新的现象。</p><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";"><div style="width: 720px; float: left;"><div data-id="38394017" data-title="弹丸朝鲜 军力几许？" data-date="20170412" style="float: left; width: 700px; height: auto; margin: 0px 0px 30px; background-color: #000000; position: static !important;"><ul style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; list-style: none inside; overflow: hidden; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; position: relative; width: 700px; height: 544px;"><li style="background: url("../cssi/list-blip.png") 1px 10px no-repeat; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; opacity: 1; min-height: 544px; display: block; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 7;"><div style="float: left; position: relative; width: 700px; height: 394px; overflow: hidden; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-color: #111111; clear: both; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 10; cursor: pointer;"><img src="http://www.dw.com/image/38376482_303.jpg" title="In April, the US sent its Carl Vinson aircraft carrier towards the Korean Peninsula, saying it was taking prudent measures against the North. Pyongyang has vowed to react to any mode of war. Intelligence officials estimate that North Korea could be less than two years away from striking the US. It seems increasingly les likely that US President Trump will allow that happen." alt="In April, the US sent its Carl Vinson aircraft carrier towards the Korean Peninsula, saying it was taking prudent measures against the North. Pyongyang has vowed to react to any mode of war. Intelligence officials estimate that North Korea could be less than two years away from striking the US. It seems increasingly les likely that US President Trump will allow that happen." style="width: 700px;" /></div><div style="position: relative; left: 0px; bottom: 0px; z-index: 11; width: 700px; margin: 0px; padding: 15px; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; height: auto; min-height: 150px;"><div></div><h4>弹丸朝鲜 军力几许？</h4><h2>袭美缺实力</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #ffffff; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: auto;">4月初，美国海军卡尔·文森号航母开赴朝鲜半岛海域，向朝方施压、威慑。而平壤方面则称做好一切战争准备。美国情报部门估计，朝鲜的军事实力距离能够袭击美国的程度还差不到两年。看来，特朗普总统不会让这种事情发生。</p></div></li></ul><br /><div style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; height: 40px;"><div style="position: relative; z-index: 100; left: 6px; bottom: 0px; width: 678.991px; overflow: hidden; margin-top: 22px;"><div style="float: right;"><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; 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text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">5</a><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E8%AD%A6%E5%91%8A%E8%90%BD%E7%A9%BA%E9%87%91%E6%AD%A3%E6%81%A9%E7%88%B1%E6%9E%81%E7%94%9F%E6%81%A8/a-38660689?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p5" style="color: #ffffff; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">6</a></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>