川普执政百日对华政策变化:动因、效果与前景

<div id="storytop" style="max-width: 622px; width: 620px; border-top: 1px solid #dfdfdf; border-bottom: 1px solid #dfdfdf; padding-top: 3px; padding-bottom: 1px; color: #666666; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 20px; background-color: #ffffff;"><ul style="clear: both; max-width: 622px; width: 620px; margin-top: 10px; border-top: 1px solid #dfdfdf; padding-bottom: 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><div id="storytop" style="max-width: 622px; width: 620px; border-top: 1px solid #dfdfdf; border-bottom: 1px solid #dfdfdf; padding-top: 3px; padding-bottom: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 20px;"><div>&nbsp;</div></div><div style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 18.6667px; clear: both; color: #000000;"></div><div id="storytext" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 14px; color: #333333;"><p style="margin-bottom: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-size: 14px;"><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2017/May/582017Chump.jpg" width="622" height="415" alt="" />&nbsp;</p><div></div><div>)</div><p style="margin-bottom: 15px; 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height: 25px; padding: 4px 6px; margin: 0px; float: left; overflow: hidden;"><p style="line-height: 28px; width: 25px; height: 40px; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px; background: url(&quot;http://www.rfa.org/rfa_resources/js/player-graphics.gif&quot;) -9px -3px no-repeat;"></p></div><div style="background: #ebebeb; position: relative; float: left; width: calc(70% – 40px); height: 14px; margin: 10px; overflow: hidden;"><div style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; height: 14px; width: 0px; background: #2f50a2; z-index: 1;"></div><div style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; height: 14px; width: 310px; background: #acacac;"></div></div><div style="width: 40px; float: left; margin: 5px 0px 0px 6px; padding: 0px 6px 0px 12px; color: #2f50a2; line-height: 25px !important;"><span style="padding: 0px 2px 0px 0px;">00:00</span>/<span style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 2px;">00:00</span></div></div></div><span style="float: right; vertical-align: middle; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><a href="http://www.rfa.org/mandarin/zhuanlan/zhongguotoushi/panel-05082017112124.html/m0507panel.mp3" style="color: #333333; text-decoration-line: none !important;"><img src="http://www.rfa.org/rfa_resources/graphics/icon-listen.png" title="收听节目" alt="收听节目" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;" />&nbsp;</a><a href="http://www.rfa.org/mandarin/zhuanlan/zhongguotoushi/panel-05082017112124.html/m0507panel.mp3/download.html" style="color: #333333; text-decoration-line: none !important;"><img src="http://www.rfa.org/rfa_resources/graphics/icon-download.png" title="下载声音" alt="下载声音" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;" /></a></span></div></div><div id="storytext" style="font-size: 14px; font-family: SimSun; color: #333333;"><div><div></div></div><p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px;"></p></div></ul>主持人:陈奎德&nbsp;<br />座谈人:孟玄先生,资深媒体人,政治评论家<br /><br /><strong>一、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;竞选期间的川普对华强硬政策</strong><br />1、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;经贸(汇率、贸易逆差、关税)<br />2、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;地缘政治(南海冲突、北韩<br /><div></div><div><strong>二、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;上任后的变化</strong><br />1、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;从首通蔡英文电话到川习会晤<br />2、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;从佛林的去职、纳瓦罗与班农的边缘化到女儿女婿渐入核心<br />3、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;从联俄制中到冷俄热中<br /><br /><strong>三、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;促成对华政策变化的因素</strong><br />1、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &#8220;俄国门&#8220;事件及其蔓延<br />2、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 初期内政外交的挫折<br />3、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;北韩核危机<br />4、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;北京调动人脉,实施关係外交(基辛格、吴小晖、伊万卡、马云&#8230;&#8230;)<br />5、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;川习会<br />6、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&#8230;&#8230;<br /><br /><strong>四、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;效果评估</strong><br />1、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;对解决 北韩核危机有否帮助?<br />2、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;美中经贸逆差问题?<br />3、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;南海诸问题?</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><strong>五、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;短期结果与长程展望</strong><br />1、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;中美矛盾的性质:长远的结构性冲突还是临时麻烦?<br />2、&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;口头的友好辞令背后</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div></div><br /></ul></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: SimSun; font-size: 18.6667px; background-color: #ffffff;"></div><div id="storytext" style="font-size: 14px; color: #333333; font-family: SimSun; 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