中国未来转型的几种可能方式 – 纵览中国-China In Perspective

<div id="js_content" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow: hidden; color: #3e3e3e; font-size: 18px; min-height: 350px; position: relative;"><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 上篇 <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">人类历史走到今天，世界潮流终于九九归一，任何国家都不再有“向何处去”的十字路口之犹豫抉择问题。自由向更加自由奋斗，民主向更加民主努力，文明向更加文明出发。这既是人类的普世共识，也是地球村准入许可的国家道德准则。中国当然也不应该游离其外。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">民主自由与独裁专制之间不存在任何黄金比例安排只有0或1的选择。这种选择也没有“渐进”一说，从来都是一锤子买卖。正如女人分娩一样，要么顺产，要么难产，要么剖腹产，万万不能附加条件地分段生产，否则，就是黑医故意扼杀婴儿胎死腹中。同理，关于民主转型的历史论、阶段论、文化论、国情论、素质论等任何推诿之词，都属于顽固抵御转型的掩耳盗铃。因此，摆在中国今天的国家转型问题，既不存在转与不转的问题，也不存在何时转的问题，更不存在向何处转的问题，唯一只剩下如何转的问题。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">如何转型中国？目前有两种最为普遍性的两极变革幻想：<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">一种是幻想顶层出现戈尔巴乔夫式的开明巨人，以专制结束专制，用独裁结束独裁，从而实现在垂柳依依的温情脉脉中就走上现代宪政之路的国家转型模式，可称之为“领袖变革”。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">一种是幻想经济崩溃导致饥民被迫揭竿而起，以最原始的底层革命方式摧毁旧秩序建立新世界，从而实现在血与火的尸骨堆里走上现代宪政之路的国家转型模式，可称之为“饥饿变革”。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">之所以我们说这两种两极转型模式在中国纯属幻想，原因就在于没有对这两种模式所必须的条件有深入理解。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">领袖变革模式，就是希望在专制政权金字塔顶端出现一位开明正直的神级领袖人物，凭借手中既有的极权优势主动实现国家转型。这种模式将受制于领袖所面临的三大障碍约束：是否愿意变革，是否能够变革，是否敢于变革。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">权力是个好东西，尤其是不受监督的极权更是权中极品，它能让极权者实现自己一切理想抱负的可能。上天揽月下洋捉鳖，粪土当年万户侯，惜秦皇汉武数风流人物，放眼寰球也就几只苍蝇嗡嗡，……，说说，这是何等豪迈的独行天下？随便乱写乱画就是自成一体的书法，“土豆烧牛肉不许放屁”也是独领既往诗词歌赋的风骚，即便打错了标点用别了字依然是不可撼动的经典绝唱。为什么那么多人崇拜先帝爷等无法无天的极权暴君？因为那种唯自己自由而肆意生杀予夺他人自由的潇洒会让人如痴如醉，这就是蒋宋夫人当年说的“权力美感”。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">权力美感会让一个至高无上的权力拥有者主动放弃权力么？绝不会，这是人之常情。只要权力快乐感不低于权力痛苦感，没有谁会放下手中的权力。我们津津乐道的华盛顿为什么没有走上独裁之路，除了他自己具有神一样品质的高贵之外，更重要是，当时有一批也具有神一样品质的先驱人物在紧紧盯着他，从来一刻也没有放松对他的警惕，联邦党人文集和政党的兴起都是围绕如何制约总统权力组成的专业监督队，华盛顿离开总统府说了一句话：“我终于把这烫手的山芋甩给了亚当斯”。华盛顿是被骂成小偷婊子而结束总统生涯，尽管他为国家熬白了头发熬坏了眼。因此，卸任两年不到就一命呜呼，享年才68岁。你说那总统得有多痛苦才会如此这般折磨人啊！是你，还想当下去么？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">同理，戈尔巴乔夫、蒋经国、德克勒克、吴登胜等人，虽然面临的境况与华盛顿当年不一样，但内在的原因都是因为继续独裁的痛苦感超越了独裁的快乐感，再加之他们本人的人性犹存，所以他们没有独撞南墙而已。想想，为什么蒋经国不提前一年、五年、十年就放开党禁报禁？是不能还是不敢？别给我说什么条件不成熟之类的陈词滥调，我告诉你唯一的原因就是他不愿意。同样，德克勒克和吴登胜也是如出一辙。唯有戈尔巴乔夫还算是先知先觉再加道德超人而主动弃权，这的确值得大书特书一笔。正是因为戈氏的新思维，直接导致东欧剧变、柏林墙倒塌和苏联解体，结束了持续45年两大阵营的对垒格局，为人类政治文明的贡献其实比华盛顿等人更甚一筹，但由于国内主流意识形态对其讳莫如深，一直都没有得到正面评价而已。尽管如此，也不得不说是因为前苏联已经走到了山穷水尽的地步，逼迫戈氏做出个人大智大勇大德的抉择。讲到这里，笔者只能唯心地说，上帝对不同国家不同民族的苦难安排是有先后顺序的，前苏联人民熬到头了，所以上帝降临了戈尔巴乔夫。如果当年的戈氏换做普京大大，那又完蛋了。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">综上所述，极权者是否愿意弃权，主要决定于三点：<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">（1）极权环境压力是否超越了极权者的心里承受程度；<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">（2）极权者是否还尚存最起码的人性道德；<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">（3）极权者是否还具有正常的智力思维。后两点是加剧第一点是否提前到来的催化剂，如果极权者已经丧失人性和最起码的智力思维，即便水烧开了也不知道起脚的，因为皮太厚了，萨达姆、卡扎菲、巴萨尔等人无不如此，你让他们这些魔鬼级极权者做出放权的“愿意”，还不如把他们杀了。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">退一万步讲，即便极权者有放权的意愿，就能实现领袖变革的国家转型吗？NO，还得看第二大约束条件：是否能够变革。能不能，主要决定于极权者和极权系统所沉淀的包袱是否放得下？这个包袱其实就是罪孽，如果沉淀的罪孽能有效归零或轻缓到不足以被清算的可能性时，那么，领袖变革模式基本水到渠成，就不再存在第三大“是否敢于变革”的约束条件。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">如果极权领袖有意愿，那么说明他本人的包袱已经不是阻力，关键就是看极权系统的包袱阻力有多大。这个罪孽包袱是什么？主要包括反人类罪孽和特权腐败罪孽的沉淀量。如果反人类罪孽具体存在并且实施者还在世，极权领袖就会遭遇难以抵抗的阻力。如果反人类罪孽与实施变革的极权领袖之权力来源是一脉相承的关系，那领袖变革的意愿几乎会被秒杀。另一个丝毫不亚于反人类罪孽的包袱就是系统性腐败沉淀量，也就是特权阶层已经获得的腐败利益是否超越了民众放弃清算的容忍度，如果没有超越这种容忍度，领袖变革意愿就能执行，否则，就会遭遇特权阶层（泛指既得利益者）的集体抵御。腐败利益沉淀量越大，抵御领袖变革的意志力量就越坚决。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">戈尔巴乔夫之所以能顺利让“新思维”落地也没有流血，就是因为苏共极权系统这两项罪孽包袱不大。反人类罪孽可一股脑儿推到前面已经死去的极权者身上，从而将自己的罪孽可以归零。戈氏解散苏共中央时，一直都是计划经济时代，特权还没有变现的机会，腐败沉淀量非常有限，最多就是多了一点特供啥啥的，即便失去权力也没有多少落差，更不会有被清算的恐惧感。如果在戈氏之前已经推行了几十年的市场经济，戈尔巴乔夫即便有上帝附体也难以撼动特权腐败体系的集体抵御力量，贸然变革必遭血光之灾。特权腐败越泛滥越纵深，领袖变革的意愿和可能性就越小，他也不敢变革。戈氏变革的成功条件也同样可以解释蒋经国、德克勒克和吴登胜模式。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">也许一些急欲变革的幼稚右右会说：“干脆就别清算好了，已经腐败的就让他去好了，早转型一天总比不转好，何必纠结呢？”那好，只要此语一出，不但现在所有的虎啊蝇啊的放心了，所有的小虎中虎会以百米冲刺的速度向大虎巨虎看齐，并且狼猪狗羊都会朝虎山一路狂奔，反正不用担心被清算嘛。特权腐败体量更加厚重如山，既得利益群体更加庞大如云，弱民阶层更加弱如蝼蚁，从而，阻挡变革的力量必然更加压倒性超越诉求变革的力量。这就叫麻雀吃胡豆没跟屁眼商量。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">根据领袖变革的三大约束障碍，请问今天中国，幻想领袖变革实现国家转型的可能性还有吗？因此，那种以不断歌颂胡耀邦、蒋经国、吴登胜、德克勒克为引子来触动顶层出现领袖变革的寄望，注定是一厢情愿，即便胡赵阴灵回转也只能两眼一瞪而无力回天。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: 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box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; width: 670px !important;" alt="" /><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 中 篇 <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">与领袖变革的顶层转型幻想相对立的就是寄望底层弱民的饥饿变革。饥饿变革幻想认为，经济一旦崩溃，必定物价飞涨，大面积失业，大多数弱势群体都没有社会保障，底层穷人必定因为饥饿求生不得不揭竿而起，陈胜吴广和太平天国的历史画面就必然重演，国家想不转型都不行了。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">如果说领袖变革幻想还有生鲜活例可附会联想，虽有点幼稚，但还不算太离谱，然而，饥饿变革幻想纯粹就是一种沉醉于教科书谎言的愚蠢。饥饿变革幻想至少犯了三个无知的错误：（1）不懂中国与经济危机毫无关系；（2）不懂饥饿与经济危机毫无关系；（3）不懂饥民变革与国家转型毫无关系。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">首先要明白一个概念，什么叫经济危机？这个不但大多数中国人不懂，就连相当部分所谓经济学家也没闹明白，但一群糊涂蛋，对，糊涂蛋，天天还在预期中国的经济危机，可笑之极。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">经济危机，只有真正的市场经济才会出现的一种经济症状。啥叫市场经济？就是必须有最起码的市场正义和契约精神为基础的经济运行环境，即在充分自由平等竞争状态下，由于供求信息的滞后性积累，因为盲目投资的非理性，导致供求结构性失衡，产生的金融、劳动、产品等市场大规模的部分领域供给不足（物价飞涨）和部分领域供给过剩（大面积失业）的市场病态现象。这就叫经济危机。如果既没有市场正义，也没有契约精神，更没有自由竞争环境，连最起码的市场经济运行的基础都不存在，产生于自由市场经济的概念“经济危机”又怎么可能在中国这样的市场出现呢？为什么被踢屁屁？就因为别人不承认你是市场经济国家。一句话，没有选票的国家，没有资格发生经济危机；没有选票的国民，也是没有资格谈论经济危机。“经济危机”是个奢侈品富贵病，中国人，你真的不配谈，谈不起。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">你听说朝鲜有经济危机吗？你听说萨达姆治下的伊拉克有经济危机吗？你听说卡扎菲治下的利比亚有经济危机吗？你听说过唐宋元明清有经济危机吗？你当然没有，你只听说过自然灾害和大饥荒，但那与经济危机毫无关系。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">饥饿问题不是经济问题，而是政治问题，也就是说，饥饿问题与经济危机是风马牛不相及的事儿。为啥路有冻死骨？那是因为朱门酒肉臭；为啥饿死三千八百万？因为茅台酒厂只能增产不能减产。这些饥饿问题与什么经济问题或经济危机有个毛的关系呀！<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">别说最近的次贷危机，就是最远的1929世界性经济危机，你听说哪个西方国家饿死人了？你听说有跳楼讨薪吗？你听说有公交纵火吗？当然没有，但你一定听说有很多投资者跳楼了、工厂大面积倒闭了（中国国有企业永不倒）、工人大规模失业了（在中国叫闲置劳动力）、牛奶倒进河里了（过期还不倒只有中国商人才会干的事儿。精英博览）。但上述经济危机的表现征兆在中国根本就不是事儿，连跳楼讨薪都不是什么事儿，还能有什么事儿？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">换句话说，一个不正常的国家，危机也是不正常的。此时此刻此地此国，不但正在发生你嘴里所说的经济危机，也在发生你从不说的教育危机、医疗危机、言论危机、出版危机、养老危机，而且正在发生最彻底的政府信任危机。而这些危机自从1949开始，每天每时每秒都伴随你的左右，但有谁拿出来说这些是危机？而在正常国家哪怕某个小危机，国民早就翻天了，你也早就在新闻联播听到水深火热了。2007的美国次贷危机牵动世界，但中国不但没有危机，而且望星空还夹着国库去救援房地美和房利美去了，尽管国内正在发生抱子同溺、锯子锯腿和自制肾透析机器的饥饿问题，举国上下都情绪稳定，哪有什么危机？这就是非正常国家的“神奇”之处。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">结论：<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">（1）经济危机是自由国家市场经济的事儿，非正常国家不会有经济危机，因为非正常国家有的是办法让一切危机情绪稳定。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">（2）饥饿问题是政治问题，不是经济问题，更与经济危机无关。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">自然非正常国家不会发生经济危机，那你还去预期什么经济危机和经济崩溃呢？自然饥饿问题与经济危机无关，那你还在幻想什么经济危机而产生饥饿变革呢？这不但是对中国认知不够，也是对世界认知不够，更是对中国饥饿认知不够，胡乱听到一个经济术语就乱套乱用。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">这国不会有经济危机，但不并影响饥饿的发生，甚至饿殍遍地皆有可能。但饥饿一定就会揭竿而起吗？这里又容易犯一个教科书错误。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">教科书一直都说，历代起义都是因为民不聊生才揭竿而起。我告诉你这是一个谎言，每次揭竿而起的都不是饥寒交迫的饿死鬼，恰好都是有知识有思维有志向的一群人在思考“王侯将相宁有种乎”。陈胜吴广是军队的中层干部，洪秀全及其一干高层都是出身不俗的人家，即便最近的井冈山革命也是一群有志青年的伟大杰作，从没有听说哪一次改朝换代是因为快饿死的人去找政府的怪。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">你想想，一个正在食不果腹饥肠辘辘的人会想什么？会想“中国向何处去”吗？会想自由平等和选票吗？会想国家转型吗？不会，他只会想明天的面包在哪里？但同样这个问题，中国人与美国人想法就不一样。美国人一旦失业呀、福利下降呀等一切不如意的事儿，都是去找白宫，并且是所有人（无论贫富）一起去找，但在中国的穷人都不会这样。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">打小时候就经常看见叫花子走村串户，都是一个人一根棒一个碗在沿村乞讨，从没看见两个人以上联手乞讨的。这些叫花子也奇怪，就只往同样是食不果腹的远村近乡去讨，从没有看见哪一个叫花子去衙门口讨，稍稍好过一点大户因为狗恶，他们也都不去。我就很纳闷，这叫花子也是欺善求良啊？还真是，不但中国乞丐如此，其实所有底层弱民都是如此。我曾经在一个城市农民工子弟学校当过一段时间政治辅导员，这是一个武术学校，一次，我问一个经常欺负小伙伴的孩子王：你这样总是出手打同学，长大了你敢回去打乡长吗？他不假思索就立马回答：“民不与官斗”。当时我目瞪口呆。一个不谐世事的孩子都能条件反射一般回答得如此干脆，可想而知，对官府的恐惧感已经不是社会教化，而是固化成一种基因在代代传承。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">但是，在同样的饥民之中却能组建起大小不同规模的丐帮，这是中国历史章回和各种奇林轶史必不可少的精彩片段，看，都快饿得去鬼门关了，还不忘来一次底层王朝的演绎，并且还演得栩栩如生。其实，你只要去全国各地生存状况极为糟糕的人群堆里走一遭，你都会发现类似丐帮一样的王朝组织，即便是专收破烂垃圾的三轮车也不例外。可想而知，中国最低层，也就是你所寄望闹饥饿变革的将来饥民在想啥？你还能幻想“饥饿变革”吗？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">可能我们不愿面对这样一个现实：民越贫穷越怯懦越偷生。当一个人穷得只剩一条命的时候，他特别珍惜生命，任何有让他丢命的风险，他比谁都更敏感也更警惕。但是，为了活命，他可以不顾一切廉耻和人格人伦去干他所想干的事儿。譬如卖儿卖女，甚至亲亲相食，这在1960年代的大饥荒绝不是什么稀奇古怪。一个民兵一把枪守在村口，所有村民宁愿将村里的树皮吃光也没有人敢冲出村去。你说你还盼望什么经济危机会有饥民变革么？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">饥民变革如果是一种幻想，也许并不是最糟糕的，可能最可怕的是饥民变革变成活生生的事实。因为在饥民眼里只有面包、炕头和女人，关于普世价值啥啥的根本不如面包屑重要。真的一旦饥民变革起来，也分不清谁是他们的敌人谁是他们的朋友，所有能吃上饭的人可能都是他们心目中的首富。因此，当你在幻想饥民变革时，也许革的不是别人的命，恰好是为自己在挖坑。饥民变革更不可能转型国家，最可能的是转世唐宋元明清。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.5657142857142857" data-s="300,640" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/iaak71FBPmqahkKcV2TUs6TFcsoQdPHzK4y80AK10Ub0tykNRqPlyeRtY5ucYXYd8FkwSMK3N18ZaPJtNW1bq8A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="700" _width="auto" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/iaak71FBPmqahkKcV2TUs6TFcsoQdPHzK4y80AK10Ub0tykNRqPlyeRtY5ucYXYd8FkwSMK3N18ZaPJtNW1bq8A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; height: auto !important; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; width: auto !important;" alt="" /><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 下篇 <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">这下篇我究竟想说什么？原先我计划了好几个版本，但中途我都放弃，最终我确定聊一聊有关国家转型的道义问题，着重批判我们自身“酱油革命”的思维。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">之所以务必抛弃两个幻想，因为这两种变革幻想不但“不符合国情”，而且这两种幻想在道义上也是值得商榷的。第一种幻想，是怯懦求变派将自己不敢面临的变革风险，毫无信念地幻化成某个明君领袖人物意外青天开眼去承受变革的危险，这是一种放弃自我的犯贱，这话听起来逆耳，但很忠言。第二种幻想，是将先行者理所当然挺身肩负的转型责任，毫无道德地幻化成弱势饥民用血命之躯扛起变革的重任，这是一种恃强凌弱的犯罪，这话听起来头晕，但却诛心。这两种幻想均属于外化成本内化收益的酱油革命。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">酱油革命，就是缺乏治国治己的自治精神又盼望变革但却只做围观者的投机革命。这种投机表现就是将本应属于自己的责任，要么托付给强人，要么推卸给弱者，自己做一个甩手掌柜，美其名还认为自己醒了，只不过是睁着眼睛呼呼大睡而已。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">酱油革命是对国家转型的深重危害。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">幻想领袖变革本质上是继续呵护恶政恶行的一种极具隐蔽性维稳，虽然幻想者可能并没有此意，但却在事实上做到了稳定求变情绪的安慰剂。其主要表现手法是：（1）对任何一丝丝的改良政策进行大肆渲染，让民众对现有政治系统产生渐变希望的幻觉；（2）对一些典型改良人物（如胡赵）浓墨重彩地夸大吹捧，让民众相信粪坑里也有良心；（3）编制波谲云诡的宫廷派性斗争，衬托“正面派”的举步维艰，让民众耐心等待“好人政治”带来的巨变；（4）危言耸听非领袖变革的天下大乱，让民众产生人人自危的焦虑，从而盲信误国误民的“稳中求变”。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">幻想饥饿变革本质上是低素质求变派无意识撕裂弱民阶层制造同态分化的一种猥琐心机。毫无疑问，弱势饥民是饱受恶政恶果的最大受害者，他们为了求生度日已经耗尽了身心，他们本应该是被先知先觉的先行者拯救其生存尊严的对象。把选票送进他们的手中，而不是让他们倒在选票的墨迹里；把自由送进他们的生活，而不是让他们成为自由的垫脚石；把安全送进他们的家庭，而不是让他们换取我们安全的牺牲品。这才是真心转型求变的道义形象。现在好了，饥饿变革幻想派以自己“熬得起”的强势心态将变革风险推卸给“熬不起”的弱势饥民，难道这不是自毁国家转型的道义形象吗？记住，无论转型前后，让弱势群体活得有尊严，是每一个追求转型的先行者必须坚守的普世精神。别还没转型，我们就自己开始欺负人。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我在写此文之前，专门辟文《民主之路：最重要的是精神而不是制度》，就是想告诉大家什么叫“醒了”。民主的本质是自治，自治，既敢于对他人的专制说不（治国），更敢于对自己的专制说不（治己）。一句话，敢于对一切野蛮说不的自治信念，这既是民主的精神，也是自由的使命。如果没有一大批具有强烈民主精神和自由使命的仁人志士或公民群体，别说去抗争转型，就是将美国宪政制度端在你手上，分分钟也会形同虚设。为啥，再好的制度都是靠有这么一群较真的人用信念去维护。这就是我为什么说精神比制度重要的原因。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">如果认为费城制宪制定一部《美国宪法》就万事大吉了的话，那就太图样了。其实那六千余字的一张纸远没有窑洞党的党章漂亮，因为那宪法里面根本就没有写“利为民所谋”之类的款款深情。但是，如果没有一批接着一批开国先贤和民主斗士，激流涌进地去立法维法护法修法，那宪法不但会成为摆设，可能还成为专门收拾小民的工具。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我之所以称领袖变革幻想叫犯贱，是因为我们内心的领袖依赖情结会彻底扼杀我们自己的自治精神。自然国家转型可以依赖领袖变革，那当然转型之后还是会惯性依赖领袖的英明决策，转型前后，只不过从一种被动犯贱转型为另一种主动犯贱。这就是今天的俄罗斯。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">俄罗斯的转型无疑是最低成本的，几乎没有任何公民运动的抗争，一夜之间就由领袖变革实现了国家转型。但这样的国家转型最大问题是什么？最大问题就是制度转型了，国民精神却没有转型，因为缺席了国家公民精神培养教育的关键过程。至今俄罗斯民众内心的沙俄帝国情结依然浓厚，普京对外的胡作非为不是一个人在胡搞，而是得到国家杜马和国民意志支持的，这就是国民整体缺乏治己精神的典型表现，把能欺负他人或他国当光荣而不是耻辱。同时，由于对强人政治的传统依赖情结，对普京个人英雄主义的国民崇拜已经到了荒唐的程度，居然有议员提案储存普京的精子，整个国家也都放任普京变着花样搞独裁，不但放任，而且为了普京能一直独裁下去，国家杜马还主动犯贱修改宪法让总统任期从五年到七年，这就是国民整体缺乏治国精神的典型表现，习惯被人虐的快感的确可以减少自己很多麻烦。转型前后，俄罗斯国民都在打酱油，可以笃定，俄罗斯民众必然会为自己的酱油思维付出必须的代价。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">与之相反，台湾转型就不一样。尽管临门一脚的确是蒋经国居功至伟，但为了他最后一脚，台湾人民连续付出了四十年的公民运动代价，是数以万计的血泪之躯不屈不挠的抗争，宪政之路才铺垫到蒋的足下。也正是这个举步维艰的抗争过程，培养教育了像今天民进党等众多公民运动的民主社团，台湾民主精神的公民意识已经彻底发育成熟，小美国之称名至实归，所以我们看台湾大选几乎与美国别无二致。其他如印度、韩国、南非和缅甸等国的转型之路基本如出一撤，都在转型过程给予了国民刻骨铭心的民主精神塑造，任何一个民选领袖也别再想有专制轮回的可能，否则，太阳花运动就会遭遇辣椒水、坦克装甲的伺候。因为转型过程国民没有犯贱，转型之后再想犯贱也很难。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">国民犯贱不犯贱，俄罗斯和台湾的转型就是两面镜子。讲到这里，也许你会疑惑：“难道硬要流血转型才算不犯贱吗？”那倒不至于，无论流血还是不流血，塑造民主精神这一关怎么也逃不掉，尤其是对于被专制奴化数千年的国民来说，这一关远比国家转型和民主制度本身重要千百倍，因为这国的国民早就将犯贱内化成快乐的基因，人与人的关系也是完全在比拼谁更犯贱，问题是还不知道自己在犯贱。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">学会塑造自己的民主精神，既是真正醒来的标志，更是我们施与启蒙开智的榜样力量，尤其是不再寄望将转型责任托付给强人或推卸给弱者的坚强信念，这是个人民主精神塑造成熟的分水岭。LXB、XZY、PZQ、GY和“不破楼兰终不还”的三君子等，就是当代中国民主精神的先行丰碑。那么如何做到这一点呢？笔者建议，在生活方式上循序渐进地三步走：<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第一，培养自由信念美感。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">自由信念加民主精神就是公民意志，没有对自由平等的强烈渴望，就不可能有民主自治的意志保障。什么叫自由美感？就是在平等价值观中追求超越自我的幸福，而不是在等级比较中猎取超越他人的快乐。简单说，就是要坚决摒弃恃强凌弱的快感，培养护弱扬善的美感，学会把自己的强势或优势当做为自由接力的宝贵资源，而不是当做践踏自由的等级工具。在民运圈一些半醒不醒的民逗有一个极坏的恶习，一方面，喜欢谩骂、厌恶、嘲笑身边没有醒来的“愚民、猪民、奴民”，把“他们”当做阻碍转型的绊脚石，却从不责怪“我们”努力不够；另一方面，又把转型的风险得意洋洋地转移给预期经济崩溃的弱势饥民，而把自己粉饰成启蒙开智的先行导师。这哪里还有一点自由信念的美感？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第二，国家好坏与我有关。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">国家兴亡匹夫有责，这是一个伪命题，国家无所谓大小强弱，但国家一定有好坏之别。提供自由还是践踏自由？就是国家好坏的分界线，这好坏与我们每个人休戚相关。“不要问祖国为你做了什么，而要问你为祖国做了什么”，肯尼迪这句振聋发聩的国家个人使命感，已经早被民运派当做“爱国鸡汤”唯恐避之而不及，其实这是对肯尼迪的误解。如果把国家看做自由的港湾而不是专制的摇篮，肯尼迪这句话的正解就是：不要问国家为你提供了多少自由，而要问你为这个国家的自由做了多少努力。本质上，这句话是肯尼迪在鼓励每一个公民敢于对一切践踏自由的野蛮专制说不的励志箴言。说不，也许你我在行为上也有点为难，但时时谨记在内心应该没问题。前不久，一位自诩民主派的人士对我说：“看你的文章就知道你对这个国家有一种气。”我特么奇怪了，只要人性犹存，对这样的国家还不升腾天地正气，难不成你还每天享受这个国家？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第三，让恐惧悄悄地走开。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">转型的艰难在于专制的野蛮，野蛮的无底线让人人都有恐惧感，这很正常。但有一点我们笃信，当人人都心生恐惧时，制造恐惧的他们将比人人更恐惧。我们可以前赴后继在恐惧中输给他们千万次，但他们只能在万千恐惧中等待我们赢一次。我们的恐惧是将来控诉他们的法堂罪据，他们的恐惧是鼓动我们奋勇前进的交响曲。我们一旦放下恐惧，他们就只能戴上面具，没有恐惧就没有犹豫，撕下他们的面具，这是上帝安排我们开垦最后一块蛮荒之地的最高荣誉。<div> </div></div>