<div></div><div><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2017/Jul/728201728-2.jpg" width="660" height="371" alt="" /></div><div><span style="color: #ececec; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; background-color: #111111;">专家表示，中国对朝制裁的原则之一是不切断民生往来</span><br /> </div><div> </div><div><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 28px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中美在联合国就新一轮对朝制裁问题取得进展，但中国专家告诉BBC中文网说，美国敦促中国向朝鲜施压并不见得能最终起决定作用。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国社会科学院亚太所朝鲜半岛研究中心兼职研究员刘鸣接受BBC中文网采访时说，“美国并没有期望中国能发挥更大的作用，只是说要求中国要在经济上对朝鲜施加更大的压力，”</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“这实际上是一种消极的要求，不是积极的要求，”他补充说，“因为美国也知道中朝关系并不好，而且朝鲜决意要发展核武器，所以单靠中国去发挥作用也不解决问题。”</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">本周，中美双方均表示，对朝鲜进行新一轮制裁的谈判取得进展，美国驻联合国大使妮基·黑利（Nikki Haley）在周二（7月25日）指，新一轮制裁将“非常严厉”。</p><h2>如箭在弦</h2><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">截至目前为止，朝鲜并没有取得在导弹上搭载小型核弹头的技术，但在7月4日鲜成功试射了一枚最远射程能够打到美国阿拉斯加的弹道导弹。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">之后一天，美国就向联合国安理会递交了启动对朝新一轮制裁的提议，其中涉及的新制裁措施包括，切断对朝鲜的石油供应，禁止朝鲜外派劳工，对朝鲜实施新的空中和海上禁运。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">周二，美国媒体披露美国国防部的秘密报告指，朝鲜最快将在2018年就拥有性能可靠、能够搭载核弹头的洲际弹道导弹，并开始进入生产阶段。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">法新社周二报导，五角大楼已经监测到朝鲜正在准备下一次导弹试射，这枚导弹的型号可能是一种中程导弹，或者一枚远程洲际导弹（KN-20或Hwasong-14）。</p><figure style="color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6449px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/10890/production/_97082776_040424330-1.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/10890/production/_97082776_040424330-1.jpg" alt="朝鲜领导人金正恩庆祝洲际导弹发射成功" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.207px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; line-height: 1.14286; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: 0.25px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">AFP PHOTO/KCNA VIA KNS</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; line-height: 1.33333; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">7月4日，朝鲜领导人金正恩庆祝洲际导弹发射成功。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国专家表示，对于朝鲜在相关技术上的实际进展情况仍有很多尚未明确之处。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">刘鸣向BBC中文网表示，关于朝鲜将在2018年掌握洲际导弹搭载核弹头技术，“是美国内部的一个评估”。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“但这个评估现在还没有完全公布，只是媒体的一个说法。”</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">他指出，“美国方面是各种说法都有，另外一种说法是至少要到2020年，朝鲜才可能达到这样的一种水平，甚至2020年也不一定达到。”</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">外界普遍相信朝鲜可能已经拥有核武器，但尚未拥有可搭载核弹头的导弹以及相应的精确制导技术。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“它能不能达到通过大气层的技术，这也是有争论的，”刘鸣说，“朝鲜自己说它已经有这个技术，但还有不少人认为它没有达到。”</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">周三（7月24日）是朝鲜战争停战协议签署64周年，法新社曾引述匿名消息源指，朝鲜可能将在这一天进行中程或远程导弹试射，但至目前为止未有相关消息。</p><h2>中国的角色</h2><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">在朝鲜核问题上，美国多次敦促中国对朝鲜采取更强硬的措施，但是中国的实际行动似乎一直未令美国和韩国感到满意。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">刘鸣表示，中国目前在朝鲜问题上难以发挥巨大影响，原因之一是朝鲜不愿意进行谈判。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“如果朝鲜接受中国提出的‘双停’，即停止核试验和导弹试验，美国停止军事演习，什么形式的谈判中国都愿意参与，”他告诉BBC中文网。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">他表示，中国现在的作用与此前破裂的六方会谈是一样的，但是作用已经有所降低。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“因为原先六方会谈的结果大家也看得很清楚，再加上朝鲜不信任中国，所以中国要在这个口子上要发挥很大的作用，困难性还是很大。关键是朝鲜没有意愿去谈判。”</p><h2>中美分歧</h2><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">朝鲜持续发展“核导一体化”的试验，但经济数据却表明，朝鲜与中国的贸易额却仍有增长。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国海关总署在7月中旬公布数据，2017年上半年中国与朝鲜双边贸易比2016年同期增长了约10.5%。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">虽然中国解释，自3月中国依据联合国制裁协议减少从朝鲜进口以来，中国从朝鲜的进口额已连续4个月大幅下降，其中煤炭进口在今年上半年同比下滑74.5%，但仍然受到美国批评。</p><figure style="color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6449px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/43A2/production/_96841371_hi040423972-1.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/43A2/production/_96841371_hi040423972-1.jpg" alt="朝鲜试射导弹" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.207px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; line-height: 1.14286; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: 0.25px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">REUTERS</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; line-height: 1.33333; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">朝鲜7月初宣布成功试射一枚洲际导弹，分析称这枚导弹射程可抵达美国。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">刘鸣向BBC中文网表示，美国认为，核武器发展持续取得进展的朝鲜未在经济上受到更严重制裁，“关键因素就是中国与朝鲜还有着非常密切的经济关系”。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“特别是中国对朝出口还在增长，”刘鸣说，“这一点也是引起美国、韩国的不满，认为我们这方面的努力不够，但是我们的理由就是，联合国没有说全面停止同朝鲜的经济往来。这是中国与美国主要的分歧点。”</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“还有一点就是，即使（经济往来）全部停了，朝鲜就会屈服吗？朝鲜有可能不屈服，因为俄罗斯和朝鲜也还有很多关系。”</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">他认为，美国现在对中国单方面施加压力，实际上最终并不见得对朝鲜核问题这样的复杂问题起作用，“就像伊拉克和利比亚当年的情况一样”。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">刘鸣指出，中国现在所有的制裁都是通过联合国进行的，也就是说，不在联合国制裁协议内的部分，中国不会进行单方面的制裁。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“就是任何制裁一定要具有国际合法性，”刘鸣说。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">他还表示，中国的另一个原则是不能切断民生往来。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“如果民生往来切断以后，中国会感到压力巨大，可能会导致朝鲜恼怒对中国采取报复行动，也可能因为老百姓涌向出口边境。这些都是中国要考虑，而不是美国要考虑的。”</p> </div><div property="articleBody" style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 53.7642px 0px auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span></span></figure></div>