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color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 53.7656px 0px auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">AFP</span></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">是不为、还是不能为？撇开政治和外交层面的考虑，日本有多长时间防卫自己？目前反导系统能做些什么？以后可以作何考虑？</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">二战结束70多年，日本列岛再次响起防空警报。北海道上空，15天之内就有两次警报。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这不是演习，而是真实的威胁：朝鲜先后发射两枚弹道导弹，飞越北海道上空后坠入大海。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">9月15日那一次，日本国防部说，导弹是在日本时间06:57分发射的。日本人在07:00收到政府短信，警告朝鲜发射了导弹、建议人们在室内或地下防空洞躲避。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">07：04到07:06，导弹飞越北海道，最后于07:16坠入日本东部的太平洋海域。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">换句话说，如果导弹是针对日本目标的，日本人从预警到被击中的时间最短可能只有4分钟。</strong></p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/B593/production/_97838464_alert_japan.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/B593/production/_97838464_alert_japan.jpg" alt="日本预警" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">WEB</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">日本的紧急预警</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这实在很短，可能根本无法抵达安全藏身地。再说，人们是否会立刻看到警报短信呢？</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">至于之前8月29日那一次，日本人保护自己的的时间就更短了：他们收到预警是在06:02，三分钟后、也就是06:05朝鲜导弹就到了北海道上空。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">对日本来说，防御显然相当重要。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">日本防卫大臣小野寺五典（Hisunori Onodera）说，日本从导弹发射到坠海一直跟踪监测，政府迅速判断，导弹的目标不是日本。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">但是，在东京西北部前桥（Maebashi）地区居住的医学系学生藤本一郎告诉BBC，"我们没有疏散的经验，我们不知道该怎么办，日本70多年没有打过仗了。通常，日本是一个很安全的地方。但是，我们不知道这些导弹多厉害，也不知道会落在哪儿。就这，足以让不少人害怕。"</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">不少人不禁会问：</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">为什么日本不</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">拦截</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">朝鲜</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">的</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">导弹呢？</strong></p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/DCA3/production/_97838465_43f27a09-951e-43b7-a2bc-1ba7f3546f12.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/DCA3/production/_97838465_43f27a09-951e-43b7-a2bc-1ba7f3546f12.jpg" alt="日本导弹" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">AFP</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">东京的美军横田空军基地检测爱国者Pac-3防空导弹</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">目前日本的导弹防御体系分为两个平台。</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">首先，日本海上自卫队有神盾弹道导弹防御系统（Aegis），目前部署在该地区日本、美国和韩国军舰上。神盾可在导弹发射之初和飞行中、也就是上升段予以拦截。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">第二，日本航空自卫队还有短程爱国者PAC-3型防空导弹，提供末端低层防护，也就是说，在导弹开始朝着目标降落时拦截。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">以上这两个选项加在一起效果不错，但是，神盾是海基反导系统，使用前提是军舰要在正确的时间、停在正确的地点，这需要准确的情报和预警。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">爱国者确实可以有效防卫某个确切的地点，但是对更广大的区域，保护效果就更差一些。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12AC3/production/_97838467_7812754c-7d2a-4f53-946f-3a3e4c14f87c.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/12AC3/production/_97838467_7812754c-7d2a-4f53-946f-3a3e4c14f87c.jpg" alt="日本防卫大臣" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">日本防卫大臣说：一直密切监测朝鲜导弹</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">日本今后可以考虑其他一些选择，不过，这些选择代价昂贵、部署需要时间。</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">比如，日本可以投资部署地基的神盾系统，提升防卫能力；日本也可以考虑再增加一层防卫措施，比如部署萨德。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">但是，值得注意的是，萨德还没有经历过实战检测。而且，如同韩国的经历一样，日本考虑此类部署，预计也将引发和中国的关系紧张。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/103B3/production/_97838466_ea2ab036-ae43-46c3-8bad-95a1e1e7ab61.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/103B3/production/_97838466_ea2ab036-ae43-46c3-8bad-95a1e1e7ab61.jpg" alt="萨德" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">AFP/GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">韩国部署萨德导致韩中关系紧张</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">问题是，以上任何一种防御体系都无法抵挡住一大堆、在没有任何情报和预警的情况下发射来的导弹，从而确保日本人的安全。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">因此，日本军界也在辩论，是否应该拥有更先进的、可以在发射一刻拦截、甚至提前摧毁朝鲜导弹的装备。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">现在东京"日本国际关系研究所"做访问学者的东北亚安全防卫问题专家J B Miller说，日本可以购买战斧巡航导弹、或者用已经承诺在今后购买的F-35A战斗机打击朝鲜目标。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">但是，日本的《和平宪法》允许这样做吗？二战之后，日本把放弃战争的条款写进了宪法。不过，随着地区威胁日益严峻，日本首相安倍晋三已多次要求修改宪法，让日本扩大军事能力。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">朝鲜发射的导弹在太平洋坠落，并未给日本造成危害，但安倍说这是"前所未有的威胁"。</p></div>