<div></div><div> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/RVqomuDpbe8VhK1NhRqicYnBnxmlnFiaumf3TicfyBAdEjBVxDelFUDYz4VJU4vUR1W26uxOCz3znFNFassKiaqp3Q/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6666666666666666" data-w="480" data-backw="480" data-backh="320" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/RVqomuDpbe8VhK1NhRqicYnBnxmlnFiaumf3TicfyBAdEjBVxDelFUDYz4VJU4vUR1W26uxOCz3znFNFassKiaqp3Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; height: auto !important; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; width: 670px; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">文 | <strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">王烁</strong></span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 耶鲁开学前一天，我去拜访约翰·加迪斯（John Gaddis），受到了三个惊吓。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 加迪斯是什么人呢？</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> “你要去见加迪斯？就是那个加迪斯（此处音速放慢一半音调提高八度）？”这是耶鲁朋友们听说以后的反应。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 耶鲁有些国宝级学者，加迪斯是其中之一。他专治冷战史，延伸研究大战略（Grand Strategy）。纽约时报称，在冷战史学家中，加迪斯允称第一。他著作颇丰，《遏制的战略》、《冷战史》、《凯南传》，每本都叫好叫座。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 关于《凯南传》还有段趣事。凯南本来无需介绍，考虑到读者可能年纪较轻，没有赶上那个时代，我多说两句。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 如果有一个人能称得上是美国冷战策略的总设计师，这个人就是乔治·凯南。1946年，他从美驻苏使馆发回一封长电报，从此改变了世界历史。电报惊人准确地判断了苏联政权的性质，为美国建言一场持久的艰难对抗，并预言了对抗终结的方式。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 凯南说，美国不必击败苏联，只需要比它活得久就行。策略应是遏制（containment）而不是回卷（roll back），要在苏联扩张的任何地方予以坚决回击，但无须强行改变任何既成事实。这一策略将成功寄望于苏联自我失败，而不是战而胜之。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 冷战居然真的就是这样结束的。多年后有一天，在问到美国对于苏联崩溃这件事上做了什么时，凯南说了个俄罗斯寓言：牛一直在劳作，苍蝇一直在牛鼻子上站着，天黑后回村，苍蝇兴奋地告诉大家：我们劳动了一整天！冷战也是这样，美国确实做了这做了那，但赢得冷战的不是这些，而是向另一个世界展现了自由世界的样子。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 闪回结束，回到正题。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 凯南跟加迪斯约好，由加迪斯来写他的传记，所有资料都开放，凯南事前一个字都不看，只有个条件：死后才能出版。在英美世界里传主与作者如此约定并不少见，死后才出版，那么生前才可以说实话。而且，毕竟凯南比加迪斯年长37岁呢，怕啥？</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 只不过，谁也没想到凯南活了101岁，他书中提到的所有人物都死在了前头。到最后，凯南很担心加迪斯死在他前面，那这书还怎么办？两人每次书信往还，凯南都表示我活得太久了很抱歉。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 还好悲剧没有发生。2005年，凯南去世；2012年，《凯南传》出版，立即拿下普利策奖，成为经典。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 我为什么要见一个冷战史专家呢，哪怕是天字第一号的冷战史专家加迪斯？</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 因为，我已看见，从中国、美国、欧洲、中东，都传来信号，世界正在进入动荡年代，冷战结束以后二十年来的大温和年代结束了，中国与俄罗斯越来越近，美国和日本越来越近。未来世界会不会进入类冷战状态？我们又将如何自处？</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 于是有了我的第一个惊吓。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 我问加迪斯，从冷战能得出什么教训对今天有益？教训一词，我用的英文词是lesson。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> “首先，冷战得让它冷着。”加迪斯答到。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 我马上意识到，我跟加迪斯岔开在两条平行线上。我最坏也就是想到冷战可能要来了，从未想过还有热战的可能，但加迪斯认为，冷战还不错，至少是冷的。他对lesson一词的理解，不是教训，而是经验：美苏毕竟没正面打起来，这可是个大成就。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 这样的啊，容我消化一下。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> “约翰，你的意思是说，我们现在已经处于事实上的冷战之中了吗？”</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> “不是，现在没有冷战。”</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 我长出一口气，但马上便又噎住，第二个惊吓来了。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> “现在不是冷战，因为有意识形态才有冷战，而今天意识形态不是重要因素。我们今天的世界正在回归第一次世界大战前欧洲那种力量平衡（balance of power），就是俾斯麦玩的那种游戏。美国、中国、日本、俄国、欧洲，五大势力现在很接近这种状态——全球的力量平衡游戏。”</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 力量平衡，这个词听起来很无害，但它对应的是下面这些东西：</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 第一，各国之间是丛林社会，惟力是视，没有共同认可的规则、原则和价值观。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 第二，各国之间随时调整朋友和敌人的组合，弱者联合以制衡强者，但随时拆散重组，不受观念、历史，以及鲜血凝成的友谊所制约。加迪斯提到了俾斯麦，而俾斯麦最著名的格言，除了铁与火，就是政治家就像棋手但比棋手更不受规则的约束，棋盘64格没有哪个格子是禁区不能去。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> “天命不足畏，祖宗不足法，人言不足恤”，一切服务于现实利益，这就是力量平衡游戏的玩法。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 国家间的力量平衡游戏主导了几乎整个人类历史，但最后导出惨淡结果。欧洲力量平衡的解体直接导向两次世界大战。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 可以说，二战以来的国际社会治理体系：联合国、世界银行、国际货币基金组织等等，都是对力量平衡的反动，其内在逻辑是通过共有的规则、共享的价值观及其载体国际多边机构，各国合作避免战争。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 我自然要问，现行国际多边体系都要退回去了吗？</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 加迪斯没有给我留下幻想空间：是的。多边体系从来都很弱，联合国从来也没有超越过强国意志，现在将变得更弱。问题是，国际关系的自然状态也就是默认状态是什么？如果是15年20年前，人们会说是全球化。今天人们说是碎片化。大国各行其是，在各地区伸张势力已成现实。全球的力量平衡时代已经到来，而且各大国各有其体制，有的威权，有的民主，并不共享同一种体制。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 我又问：“欧洲统一搞了几十年，现在英国脱欧，统一进程逆转这个趋势本身是不是不可逆转？”</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 加迪斯：欧洲统一首先就是个错，以为全欧洲可以拥抱同一种文化，而这是荒谬的。美国大熔炉是个例，别的地方没有见过。最终，欧洲会分裂成两三个部分，重新回到自已搞过几百年的力量平衡游戏里头去。“欧洲统一这件事，理念很了不起，事实上搞砸了，这就是我的结论。”</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 我试图将话题扳回冷战，问加迪斯：五大力量的平衡游戏，会不会收缩成两大阵营？加迪斯认为不会，冷战两大阵营有特殊原因：苏联人、中国人真信马列主义。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 都听明白后，我问了个普通人最关心的问题：力量平衡的世界危险还是冷战的世界更危险？</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 只是在这里，加迪斯的回答出现了一丝犹豫。他不知道答案，也不相信有谁知道答案，因为历史没有答案，两方面的镜鉴都有。一方面，大国玩力量平衡的时候，小国的处境会更危险，难以自立，更容易被作为牌打出去牺牲掉；但是，力量平衡之下也可能维持相当长的和平，欧洲一战前一百多年没发生大的战事。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 总之，大家都要更小心。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 最后，加迪斯给了我第三个惊吓。我此前给他写信约见，提了个问题：为什么仅仅几年前还显得不可阻挡的全球化，今天已陷入停顿，甚至可能开始反转？加迪斯很喜欢这个问题，要我去上他的大战略课，把它作为主导问题提给学生们，希望能引发持续整个学期的讨论。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"> 自已的问题如此受重视，我自然感到荣耀，但也明白原因也在于，有的问题恐怕由外人来提更合适。■ </span></p></div>