<p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; background-color: #ffffff;">中国企业债务涨势凶猛，赤字连连。这一趋势是否会引发金融危机，殊难逆料。对德国经济界而言，它无论如何都令人不爽。</p><div style="margin: 7px 0px 10px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%98%AF%E5%90%A6%E4%BC%9A%E5%87%BA%E7%8E%B0%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E5%A6%82%E5%B1%B1%E5%80%92/a-41977164?&zhongwen=simp#" link="/overlay/image/article/41977164/36000723" rel="nofollow" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none;"><img src="http://www.dw.com/image/36000723_303.jpg" title="Symbolbild China Währung Yuan (Getty Images/AFP/F. Dufour)" alt="Symbolbild China Währung Yuan (Getty Images/AFP/F. Dufour)" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px; height: auto;" /></a><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #888888; padding: 4px 0px; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: 720px;"></p></div><div style="margin-bottom: 30px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #3e3e3e; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";"><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">（德国之声中文网）40年来，中国经济连创增长新纪录，让世人叹为观止。德国经济由中大为受益。中国如今已成为几乎囊括一切的最大市场。不论是汽车还是机械：中国经济一旦萧条，德国的关键行业将应声陷入危机。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">但是，中国的增长越来越依赖举债。过去10年里，中国私人企业债务（不含银行）一再攀升，已达国内生产总值的230%。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">鉴于此，今年8月，国际货币基金组织警告说，"破坏性调整和／或增长明显放缓的风险在增加"。换言之，有可能爆发大衰退。经济学家们指出，危险的还不是债务率本身，而是债务增加的速度。国际货币基金组织称，若当局不踩闸，至2022年，中国企业债务比例将升至国内生产总值的290%。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">经济学家、前德意志银行首席经济师、现任弗罗斯巴赫·冯·施托希研究所（Forschungsinstitut Flossbach von Storch）所长迈尔（Thomas Mayer）指出，只要中国央行限制放贷，经济增势立刻就会减弱，"可以说，中国政府成了自己政策的囚徒"。不过，他表示，中国是否面临财政危机，难以确定，但"已能看到，出现了一些危险的迹象"。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">迈尔强调指出，中国出现了一个不透明的财政金融业，银行的存款在中国也只有相对而言不高的利息，因此，影子银行便经由所谓的理财产品抬高存款利息。</p><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both;"><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%98%AF%E5%90%A6%E4%BC%9A%E5%87%BA%E7%8E%B0%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E5%A6%82%E5%B1%B1%E5%80%92/a-41977164?&zhongwen=simp#" link="/overlay/image/article/41977164/41730640" rel="nofollow" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none;"><img width="700" height="394" src="http://www.dw.com/image/41730640_401.jpg" alt="China Bauarbeiten zur Expo in Shanghai (picture-alliance/dpa/ChinaFotoPress/Liu Jianfeng)" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px; height: auto;" /></a></div><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">迈尔认为，若中国发生金融危机，其模式将类似日本的、而非2008年的国际金融危机，原因是，像日本一样，中国的情况也是内债居主导地位，境外债权人相对较少。迈尔指出，一旦存款额达到不现实的高度，只消第一个人呼喊"着火了"，泡沫便会破裂。1990年日本泡沫爆破以后，这个当时的全球第二大经济体多年长势疲软。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">杜伊斯堡/埃森大学东亚经济教席主讲陶伯（Markus Taube）教授表示，中国发生金融危机的可能性难以估量，原因在于，中国并无传统意义上的市场经济，而"只要这种情况不变，我们传统的西方分析便统统落空"。他指出，中国的银行业受国家操控，中国政府又继续拥有巨额货币。基于此，陶伯教授相信，未来10年里，中国"应该不会发生金融危机"。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">从另一个角度看，中国的债务膨胀也对德国产生直接影响，这体现在中资企业收购方面。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">从2005年以来，中国企业共拿出240亿美元收购德国企业，其中，仅2016年就达110亿。这是美国保守派智库美国企业研究所（AEI）报告的。该研究所在《中国全球投资追踪数据》（China Global Investment Tracker）中观察了中国在全球的相关活动。该智库称，今年以来，中资收购金额仅40亿，其中包括被认为所有权关系不甚透明的海航集团对德意志银行的参股。《中国全球投资追踪数据》的作者、中国问题专家史剑道（Derek Scissors）强调："中国国内债务情况可怖，而且可能还会变得更糟"。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">不过，这并不妨碍史剑道作出这一估计：中国企业将得到外汇贷款。北京政府已稳定了硬通货储备，"从而能够在下一年重新提高（境外）投资数量"。这和曼海姆（Mannheim）欧洲经济研究中心（ZEW）所询问的在华德企的估计相一致。该中心国际金融市场研究部主任施罗德（Michael Schröder）指出，约66%的接受询问的在华德企经理预期，半年内，中资境外收购活动会继续增加，"而作为目标国的德国将更具吸引力"。</p><div style="float: right; width: 720px;"><div style="margin-bottom: 30px;"><div><div data-media-id="40399269" style="position: relative; float: left; width: 700px; height: auto; 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margin-left: 7px; margin-right: 4px; float: left;"></div><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 14px; font-family: "Arial bold", sans-serif; color: #bbbbbb; line-height: 40px; float: left;">观看视频</span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 14px; font-family: "Arial bold", sans-serif; color: #bbbbbb; line-height: 40px; float: right; margin-right: 20px;">01:21</span></div></div><div style="position: relative; left: 0px; bottom: 0px; z-index: 11; width: 700px; margin: 0px; padding: 15px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: black;"><h2>中国是否过度举债</h2></div></div></div></div></div></div><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"> </p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><br /></p></div></div>