<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 面对未知的命运，人通常都会生出一种神秘感和无力感，所以算命、预言之类的东西一直都很有市场。比如在中国流传了几百年的托伪之作，推背图，烧饼歌之流，到现在都还很火。其实这些所谓的预言在清朝中期之前根本未见于史籍，就是托什么唐朝袁天罡、明朝刘伯温之类的名人，一下子就从地摊上发了家，信徒甚众。<br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 其实聪明一点的人要仔细审视一下，会发现，诸如推背图，清中期之前的事情都预言得特别的符合，之后的就完全要靠牵强附会了，怎么扯都很难自圆其说。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 预言这个东西，一点都不新鲜。中国古代叫做谶纬。简单来说，谶是预示吉凶的隐语，就是预言；纬是附会经典衍生出来的解释，就是谣言。谶纬说白了就是预言和谣言的天然合体。二者大多数时候是互相纠葛，难以厘清的。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 在上个世纪末，在世界神棍群体中流传最广的预言无疑是诺查丹玛斯预言和玛雅预言。这些鬼话连篇难以考证、可以从多个角度牵强附会的玩意，随着2012年这个坎一过，瞬间就成了挂在厕所里随风飞扬的草纸，现在也没人提了。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 这种搞笑色彩浓厚的预言在之前其实已经有过先例。意大利文艺复兴时期，和达芬奇齐名的全能大师卡尔达诺，是个在数学、力学、天文学、化学、生物学等方面都有极高造诣的天才，还懂得有密码术、炼金术，以及占星术等。本人简直就是一部百科全书（数学上三次方程的解法就以此公冠名“卡尔达诺公式”）。他71岁时通过占星术推算出自己将在1576年9月21日去世，但是到那一天时，他活得好好的，没有一点翘脚的迹象。卡尔达诺思来想去，为了保全自己作为教皇的首席占星家的名声，自杀了。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 这样重合同守信用的占星家可不多见。我们中国人就成熟多了，能预言就预言，兑现不了就再来一个预言，直到实现为止。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 比如东汉最著名的预言“刘秀当为天子”。王莽篡汉之后，天下大乱，相关的谶纬层出不穷，“刘秀当为天子”就是其中之一。这个段子流传之广、威力之大，可以从一些史实中窥见：刘歆是汉朝宗室，同时也是当朝最有名的学者，被奉为太师。刘歆为了附会“刘秀当为天子”这一预言，活生生的改了名字，自称刘秀。当朝很多人也对其深信不疑，抱团谋反，结果为了等“太白星出”的祥瑞，这出谋反闹剧以被诛收尾。刘歆的死，成就了另一个真正的刘秀。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 君子皇帝，光武帝刘秀实际上是靠才能成功，但成功后不太自信，居然也把“刘秀当为天子”拿出来作为伟光正的理由。虽然“刘秀当为天子”这个预言确实无形中帮了他不少忙。但客观的说，当时适逢乱世，预言多如牛毛，估计还有张秀、李秀、王秀当为天子的预言，最终兑现了一条，可以说是历史的一种巧合。刘秀的成功，归根结底靠的是昆阳之战那种胆识和气魄。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 后来这样的操作手法随后在中国革命史上成了主流，几乎被人用烂。张角编造“苍天已死，黄天当立”、韩山童编造“石人一只眼，挑动黄河天下反”、洪秀全编造“太平天国”等等。其实呢，“亡秦者秦也”，所谓预言躬逢其时，只是其中反映民众情绪的花絮。他们更像是浓缩的口号，为那些残暴的历史划上注脚。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 但是预言这种事情，既有成败之分，就有高下之别。信口雌黄的玩意，但其实还是技术活。什么时候说，怎么说，说到什么程度，火候的拿捏决定了它能够骗倒多少人。这方面，洋人就青出于蓝而胜于蓝，习惯于将简单粗暴的口号式预言升华成系统理论。披上科学理论的外衣，那这预言就上档次了。如马氏，虽然一生也就是个抛弃妻女的苦逼青年，但是预言很有天赋，不仅内容宏大，而且规划详实。人人高尚，按需分配的理想蓝图虽然和中国传统的“均贫富”一个内核，但毕竟包裹了新的煽动性极强的斗争学说，由不得众多屌丝不流口水。这个画饼充饥的预言造出来一百多年，付出了数千万人头的代价，也从来没有实现，但是依然不妨碍继续下去。因为信不信不一定由得你。在革命的屠刀之下，信我者得偷生，不信我者永不超生。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 其实现代文明教会我们的一个基本常识就是，这个世界是按照认知趋同的规律运行的，并无什么特例或者新鲜可言。就如孙中山说的世界潮流，浩浩荡荡，顺之者昌，逆之者亡。算不算预言？这其实就跟预测花之怒放，叶之凋落一样，是最基本的对于世界的正常认知。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 比如多行不义必自毙作为一种常识，你据此结合时事，完全可以说阿萨德、金三胖一年内倒台是大概率事件，他们死于非命的可能性也极大。我们预见他们的未来并不需要塔罗牌，因为它是我们见过的无数极权的必然。萨达姆、卡扎菲、霍查、齐奥塞斯库等等，无一例外，逃不出历史挫骨扬灰的唾弃。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 倒是现实生活中的许多骗子，喜欢不断用新的词汇堆砌出预言，为人民画饼，为国家画饼，甚至为世界的画饼，这样的貌似正经噱头来为自己的荒诞正名。那些豪言“历史和人民的选择”的奇谈，皆可视为谶纬之下作，可笑也欤。</p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 常识，以及反映常识的规律，才是最靠谱的预言。</p>