“大象感冒，不能只拿小勺喂药”：改革开放四十年，周其仁再谈改革

<div><div style="display: inline-block;"></div></div> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">时间跨入2018，始于1978年的中国改革开放也步入第四十个春秋。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">曾经，“改革开放”是中国从上到下十多亿人的图腾：那意味着可以吃饱肚子、可以自由择业、可以去更广阔的精彩世界闯荡，那意味着生活越来越富裕、意味着人们的尊严与权利日渐有保证，意味着明天会更好……<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">只是，此刻，站在改革开放40年的历史节点，在自豪于改革开放取得耀眼成就的同时，再咀嚼“改革开放”，恐怕已经没有改革伊始那种简单的热情、坚定的自信和自然而然的乐观。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">盖因最近几年的改革陷入困顿：不仅改革空转，且打着改革旗号的“伪改革”、“反改革”时时沉渣泛起，以至于民间喊出保卫“改革开放”；而最高层也以“要隆重纪念改革开放40周年”来回应。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">而改革开放最重要的成果之一，中国高速发展的经济列车，不仅不再如过往那般狂飙突进、气势如虹；相反，不得不正视的现实是：中国经济整体上正处于原有低成本优势逐步丧失——一部分是竞争性成本的上升、另一部分则是体制性成本的显著上升——而新的独特性竞争优势尚未确立的“三明治”状态，亟待突围。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国改革开放这么多年，何以体制性成本不降反升？改革如何陷入当前的困局？又如何改革、创新，以从这个“三明治”状态突围？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">作为中国改革开放的见证者、研究者和参与者，北大教授周其仁试图在《突围集》一书中给出自己的解释和答案。籍《突围集》出版之机，《经济观察报·书评》专访周其仁教授，求解改革之惑。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">在周其仁看来，中国的改革开放实际上并非一直在做改革；相反，大多数时间是在酝酿、讨论、准备改革的条件，只是“关键的几锤子改革”见效了；最近几年的改革，“讲的雷声很大，做的雨点很小”：正如一头大象得了感冒，不能拿一个小勺给喂药，即便药方是对的，量也不够。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">“中国经济今天的体量已经不是三四十年前的体量，一件事就地动山摇的，要是没有一定的药量，根本看不到效果。”周其仁说，“这是中国改革新的形势”。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">访谈：<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问=经济观察报<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">答=周其仁<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">对美国减税冲击的最好回应，是中国主动降低体制成本<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：2008年纪念改革开放30周年之后，国内对于中国经济形势的认识似乎逐渐有了分歧：一种声音认为，中国经济正处于原有成本优势逐步丧失而新的独特性竞争优势尚未确立的转型升级关键时刻，因而应继续改革开放；另一些则认为，中国已经是全球第二大经济体且发展速度依然远高于发达国家和主要新兴经济体，并因此而自信起来，隐隐有输出“中国模式”的冲动。在您看来，当下中国经济的历史坐标（以改革开放为维度）和国际坐标（对外比较）处于什么位置？ <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：同一座山，“横看成岭侧成峰”，也可以说有分歧，但其实是观察的角度不同。中国经济取得的成就，应该没有人会否认。但是说我们的成就伟大到了一点问题也没有，恐怕也没有人会接受。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">不过每个人可以有不同的侧重。过去的经验，直面问题，不回避、不掩饰，研究解决之道，是中国经济不断取得新成绩的不二法门。我相信其他国家走向现代化，也是这么过来的。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">成本优势的变化，就是值得面对的问题。中国刚开始开放的时候，国家好穷，人民也好穷，工资、能源、土地价格等等，什么都很便宜。搞开放，外资愿意来，其中一个吸引力就是成本低廉。中国自己的产品，拿出去，特别进入发达经济体的市场，非常有价格竞争力。这就带来中国的出口导向，带来高速增长。这是我们走过来的路，很成功。问题是，成本优势会变化。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：成本上升，尤其是人力、土地等要素成本的上升这几年被广泛谈论。特别是去年曹德旺先生在美国设厂及其对两国营商成本的比较引起广泛讨论，而“体制成本上升”，则是您的独到观点。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：成本有各种各样的，一些成本是在市场竞争里形成的——比如经济增长很热，劳动力大家都想雇，工价就升高；一块地，你想拿，我也想拿，地价就贵。所以，经济发展一定会带来成本上升。挑战就是，生产率增长得是不是更快。工资贵，其实工作人口的收入增加、购买力增加，市场就变厚，是个好事情。但如果一个企业、一个行业、一个地区、甚至整个国家，生产率提升得不如要素价格涨得那么快，那增长就不可持久。这种市场竞争导致的成本上升，是增长一定会遇到的问题。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">还有一种成本，我把它称为体制成本，那就是成体系的制度运行的成本。譬如从1995年到2012年这段中国经济增长最快的发展阶段，涨得最快的并不是工资——工资总额跟名义GDP的增长速度差不多，不过略为高了一点点——涨得非常快的是税收、是法定社会保障缴付，还有政府的土地出让金。这类成本跟市场竞争导致的成本变动不同，带有体制的强制性，如果没有法律政策方面的主动调整，它降不下来。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">十八大以来，在降低体制成本上，政府这方面还是有努力。降得最快的，应该就是“腐败税”下来了。过去办事情找人、托关系、打点，政商关系方面的企业耗费惊人，甚至不办事也往官员那里扔一包钱。其实所有这些，最后都加到企业成本中去了。其他方面，税费也在调减，营业税改增值税，以及调低社保缴纳。但我国体制成本的下降空间还是非常大，不少消极的社会现象，包括形式主义、官僚主义、投资中的浪费等等，基础还是国民收入中的政府板块偏大，需要通过深化改革继续降低体制成本。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">现在美国减税，开启所谓全球减税竞争。有舆论抨击，特朗普要打减税仗。当然可以抨击，问题是，用词语去抨击，到底有没有用？家门口咱们自己政府干错了事，抨击也不管用，他美国联邦政府要降本国税收，我们抨击能管用？我的看法，还是要面对现实，主动应对美国降税后全球竞争的格局变化。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">其实美国也是对全球竞争态势作反应。改革开放以来，中国凭借成本优势崛起，超出所有人的预料，根本改变全球竞争格局。美国对此不做反应，维系不了他的全球地位。贸易保护主义等等，是美国的消极反应，遏制不了中国。减税和国内改革，才是美国的积极反应。这一反应，就把球重新踢了回来。要明白，成本优势不是恒常不变的，发达国家过去凡价皆贵，但全局开放竞争和危机，迫使他不断做出调整。曹德旺讲的那些，我认为值得重视。我也在宾夕法尼亚州看过中国开在那里的制造业公司，算算那里的地价、电价，外加美式招商引资的税收优惠，想想我们的人均收入远比美国低，我觉得我们要有一个清醒的评估。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">对特朗普减税冲击的最好回应，是中国主动降低体制成本，重振中国经济的全球竞争力。我之前讲过的，现在是“三明治”，中国成本优势不再显著，但独到性优势远不突出。《突围集》主要讨论的就是如何突这款“三明治”之围。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">降税费还不够，还要把无效行政开支大幅砍下来<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：在体制成本中，非常重要的一块是税收，您也讲，不赞成经济学家提加税的建议，并提议在宪法中确定总税负上限，而目前国内对中国宏观税负的总体水平的看法颇不尽一致，就您的研究来看，中国的宏观总税负究竟是什么水平？和中国以前比、和主要发达经济体、新兴经济体比，中国的总税负处于什么样的位置？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：这个有很多专业测算，如世界银行前不久公布的全球税负排名。千万别形成一个风气，外面表扬我们的，大肆报道；别人基于事实的批评，就假装没那回事。不相信统计排名也可以，观察一下周遭的现象，政府有钱很耀眼，但很多钱花得可不好。形式主义、官僚主义，过去多有，但数现在的贵，真的是非常贵。“以会议落实会议、以文件落实文件”——现在说废话的时间成本、走形式主义所占用的空间、机会成本，比过去贵了多少倍啊！ <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国今天也不是一家两家企业走出去，对不同国家的企业生存环境，是可以有客观比较的。当然，对总税负的概念、测算有不同看法，专业上永远有更精准的改进余地。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：如果中国需要减税，哪些最需要减？总税负减到何种水平才是和中国当下经济相适宜的？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：我以为要紧的是，降税要与“减支”并行推进。里根那波供给经济学留下的教训是，放松管制和大福降税时，没有同时推进减少政府开支。只降税、只松管制，而不简政，那降税、松绑都不可能持久，减着、松着，加税加管制又卷土重来。从实际情况看，我们这里简政的余地很大，把叠床架屋、头重脚轻的权力架构的编制、预算砍掉，才是反对“四风”的治本之策。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">这样看，解决体制成本减弱中国经济竞争力问题，光降税费还不够，还要把无效行政开支大幅砍下来。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：相比于减税，关于加税的观点也不少，比如房产税的提议，这十年来一直屡屡冒头。您怎么看？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：这个我过去发表过意见。我们这个地方，最容易被接受的意见就是加税；但不能说所有加税都是错的。我当时的建议是，税改要注意控制总税负。如果总税负已经偏高，那么加任何一种税、包括非常必要的税种时，要同时减一个或一些已有税种，至少别让总税负再加码。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">十八届三中全会决议就对房产税做了部署，也在上海、重庆做了试点。到底，试得怎么样，应该有个细致的总结。该做的事情不等于一定做得好，改革不仅仅是必要不必要，紧迫不紧迫，还包括方向对头的事情能不能真正妥当落地。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">房产税跟中国过去主打的流转税很不一样，不管业主是不是马上有收入，只要物业的市值上升，税就增加。这在操作上难度不小。真要实行，就真要好好当个事，涉及千家万户老百姓的税收变革，鲁莽不得。也别以为国外行得通的办法，国内就一定也行得通，必须找到适合国情的办法。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：一般而言，大家会觉得改革开放是个逐渐降低体制成本的过程，何以近些年体制成本不降反生？ <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：天下没有成本一直下降这回事。成本曲线，边际上降到一个点以后无可避免要掉头上升。企业如此，行业如此，地方如此，国家也如此，无一例外。所以，降下来的体制成本重新掉头上升，不意外。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">出路何在？抽象讲，就是永远不能在一条成本线上做文章。要审时夺势，与时俱进地移动到新的成本线，不断将成本曲线向右下方推移。用日常语言说，就是体制创新、技术创新。《突围集》讲来讲去，就是讲创新才能突围。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：从感知到的氛围而言，最近几年企业家似乎对商业成本之外的不确定性因素、不安全感的担心，甚至超过了对商业成本上升的关注，如何解这个结？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">    <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：不确定性——这是你的语言表达的——意味着驾驭经济、对付未来遭遇挑战，甚至过去的经验也推不出来未来一定是个什么样。其实，企业家——或者任何一个方面的事业家——的使命就是对付不确定性。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">你讲的不安全感，有一个来源是转型社会的政商关系。水实在浑，不适应不行，但也有尝到甜头就上瘾、把权力搅买卖当正常生意做，越搅越大、越搅越深。等到反腐加力，拔出萝卜带出泥，一圈一圈地出事。这方面要给“安全感”，怕是谁也给不了，社会机体终究要净化，否则还不烂死？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">究竟怎么对付，全世界的顶级商学院可能也教不了。只有复盘经验，从中吸取营养。王石的万科很早就高调宣称不行贿，是不是就没生意做了？也没有。不行贿拿不到好地，但拿到了差地也做成好楼盘，不也一样可以立足出头？当然，遇上野蛮生长的环境，想不低头也过不了关。是不是没得选？我看到的还是有人善选：譬如用脚投票，到风气较好的地方去发展。实在不成，也别把违心、违德、违法的事做得远远超过平均水平啊。至于把权力买卖当成“主业”经营，那哪一天灭了顶也别埋怨谁。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">所以，事情要分开讨论。不要一说体制问题，就以为谁也没办法。经验说，总有例外。同样的体制环境，同样的“机会”，总也有人就是不入流，宁丢利益也保留清醒和距离；更多人对权力搅买卖，反正想沾光也沾不着。潮流一变，原来没机会的，就有了新机会。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">户籍制度的荒谬<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">    <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：除了关注经济发展的成本优势问题，近几年您对培育经济的独特性竞争优势——创新关注颇多，去以色列、美国考察，有哪些可以跟我们分享的？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：这跟我关注成本优势变化是一个逻辑的延伸。因为要么想办法让成本降下来，或者升的不那么快；要么另辟蹊径：给定较高的成本负担，如果能够生产附加价值更高的新产品，岂不开拓出新的竞争优势？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我最早在伦敦问，人工工资、办公楼租金等等，都是天价，那她们从事什么生产，才承担得起如此高昂的成本？产品升级啊，做汽车没有竞争力，专做发动机就好一点，后来做发动机的追兵也围上来了，那做航空发动机的就杀出了重围。 <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国后起，遭遇成本挑战也顺延靠后。不过你起的越急、越成功，成本优势的挑战就越尖锐。问题是一样的。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">其实，无论观念、组织还是体制，惰性都是普遍存在的。创新要突破，但方方面面的惯性可不容易突破。如果我们还有明显的成本优势的老本可吃，谁愿意费那个劲儿搞创新？ <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">比如过去我们的商场可牛啦，企业产品要放进去，各式各样的费用令人咂舌。批评四起、骂声不断，但一个时期之内，谁也没办法。谢天谢地，来了一波电商大潮，人们跑到互联网上“剁手”，大商场租金就下来了。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">另外一个例子是城市出租车服务，早该改一改、变一变了。但像任何体制一样，一旦形成，改起来可不容易。结果冒出来一个滴滴，局面很快冲开。期间一大功臣，是基于移动互联网的打车软件。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: 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box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; width: 800px !important; background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat;" alt="" /><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：您提到了滴滴的例子，最近几年，随着技术进步尤其是移动互联网技术应用的扩展，一些人相信技术进步改变了人们的生活方式，那技术进步能替代改革、打破垄断吗？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：为什么新技术有过人之处，你就看案例，你看滴滴打车软件，就把交通部的整个管理体制搅了个稀里哗啦。但科技创新要在体质层面真正完成合法化，还有很长路要走。现在比较融洽的地方是深圳，机场下来，有“网约车”专用候车地点。其他几个大都市，还要求司机非“本地户籍、本地车牌”不可，动不动扣车罚款。我也写过拍案惊奇——市长书记都不一定有本市户口，开个滴滴车的，非要本地户籍，是何道理？这也说明，技术进步也离不开观念、体制创新的配合。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：在培育中国经济的创新能力方面，政府、政策能扮演什么角色？比如之前有些地方政府设立创业基金，批评声音不少。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：这种实践当中的事就让他做，先做起来。我能做的工作，就是有机会多看看，看明白了点评一二，供读者批评参考。别指望我这样的能教实践者怎么去做，真没这个本事。创新过程中政府该干什么，企业该干什么，科学家和大学该干什么，经验里都有，好好看，认真品，写出来也许有点参考价值，也许有助于降低实践者的信息成本。至于让我划线，应该这么干、那么干，真的没有那份能耐。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">就像80年代，没有一件先做起来的事，一开始就头头是道、非常理想的，还不是碰来碰去，如果能够总结经验教训，那就容易上路一些。不管哪件事，总要合乎规律才行得长久。别把我们经济学家惯得以为自己真能“给世界立法”，登高一呼，然后大家照做就什么问题也没有了。那是致命的自负。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">至于差不多每件事情都有不同意见，挺正常。我的观察，真正做事的那些事业家和企业家，不同意见和声音并挡不住他做事，但不同意见可以提醒他注意方方面面，兼听则明，把事情做得更好。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">注意后发劣势的危险，更不要轻易激活后发劣势<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：您对改革开放的学理阐述的核心论点之一是，改革开放实际上是在原来超级国家公司全盘国有的基础上逐步界定产权、从而创造了市场交易的可能，如果沿着您这个界定产权的解释关照当下现实，改革还需要怎样推进？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：因为分析一个复杂的事件要有一些思维模块、一些惯用的东西，用包产到户、产权理论，无非是用概念讨论这个问题，用别的语言也可以讲。我的看法，产权界定从来不是一个瞬间的，“产权”跟过去教科书讲的“所有权”不是一个事，所有权一天就可以改过来；产权不一样，技术一变化，环境一变化，人民的预期一变化，是界定了再界定，是一个过程。比如，街上原来没有共享单车，谁也不清楚街道究竟是谁的，有了共享单车，单车多了、甚至多到把路都堵上了，那就要重新界定，到底行路权、骑车权、停车权，究竟怎么划界。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">所以，产权界定就是这个道理，资源的价值没有发现之前没什么界定的问题，因为界定要成本，要有了问题才推动界定。中国改革，就是从过去很多认为不需要界定的地方走向发现需要界定。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">按这个思路往下看，比如国立大学教授的发明和发现，究竟怎么算贡献？这里没有国家资源不行，没有教授个人的努力也不行。问题是，成果一出来，究竟如何界分，是难度蛮大的挑战。界定不清，很多科研努力、特别是向市场转化的努力，就可能供给不足。最近的经验还提示，界定不清，已经形成的成果不但转化不力，还可能争议四起、纠纷频出，甚至让发明人身陷罪罚，各方共输。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">   <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：我隐约有个感觉——不知道对不对，最近几年虽然各方面也还在谈论改革，但不仅调子降下来了，讨论没那么深入了，甚至似乎很多人已经不怎么相信“改革”了，如何重新唤起人们对改革的信任？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：经济学上讲边际递减，“改革”也不能免。不知道你注意过没有，“改革”这个词，有行动时是个动词，没行动那就是个名词。回到中国现实，自1978年以来，改革开放作为纲领或大政方针一直存在，说明深得人心。但是改革也不是年年月月天天都有行动的，实际上很多时候，并没有推出改革的行动，而是在准备、酝酿、试探、或只是做局部实验。这里有一个关键，是改革跟革命不一样，改革是又要过日子，又要做系统性变革。过日子叠加体制机制变革，就不可能那样顺畅。特别是容易改的改得差不多之后，深层改革之难，是题中应有之义。另外，中国经济体量今非昔比，改革力度如何与今天经济体量相匹配，值得关注和研究。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：过去大家比较认同“后发优势论”，随着近几年一些新情况的出现，“后发劣势”的谈论越来越多，您认为中国当前是否处在了“后发优势”向“后发劣势”转变的轨道上？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：早年杨小凯讲过这个问题。我的理解，晓凯不是不知道有后发优势，但他认为由于享受到后发优势，就容易回避关键领域的改革，以至于形成后发劣势。经验上也显示，中国发挥后发优势获得高速增长，会让很多人觉得成就如此巨大，干嘛还要改啊。很多人甚至认为输出“中国模式”的时候到了。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">仔细看，到今天我们在原创方面的贡献还不够多。大多数成就，还是跟跑的成就。从原子弹、高铁、互联网到电商、社交、共享打车，都是了不起的成就，但论到原创——最初的想法和核心技术——还是人家先发，我们跟随，在跟随中发挥应用性、组合性创新。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">所以讲回来，后发优势要充分利用，但不要忽略在取得后发优势的同时，可能还掩盖着后发劣势的危险，更不要轻易激活后发劣势。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">首都既然是政治中心，也就同时是国民收入再分配中心<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">问：您也关注过城市化问题，并且特别强调高密度城市管理的探索。几年前，政策层面对城市化一度寄予厚望，之后逐步降温，但行政主导的城市化、行政主导的城市管理体制不仅没有改观，似乎愈演愈烈，这个局面怎么打破？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">周其仁：城市由密度来定义，这个观念不容易普及。现在一讨论城市就是大中小，在我看来，缺一个维度：在多大面积的地方上有多少人。没有密度概念，很多问题扯不清楚，像三百万人就可以修地铁，那是“四万亿”投资时的一个派生物。当时着急放项目，够三百万人的城市就可修地铁，而不问三百万人占多大地方。密度不够，同样三百万人，地铁修一个赔一个。最近叫停包头地铁，不是不够人数，而是不够密度。我们的城市区划，本来就连城带乡，过去还有个郊区概念，现在所谓“城乡一体化”，弄得完全没法与世界一般城市对标。像重庆，几十个区县，几万平方公里，是一个城市吗？<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">至于北京，为什么这么多人愿意挤到北京来，背后的力量机制值得细察。全世界单一制国家——不是联邦制的——首都差不多都是头号城市。巴黎、伦敦、东京，莫斯科、墨西哥城，都是所在国首位度最大的城市。德国也许例外，那是因为“二战”把柏林给切分了。两德统一后，柏林重建热火朝天，应该用不了太久就会是欧洲中心都市。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">为什么多数国家首都都是最大城市？我猜到的道理，首都既然是政治中心，也就同时是国民收入再分配中心。现代国家，收入再分配的功能越来越强。谁不来，谁就沾不上光。我看这些年要不是中央明令禁止，别说县政府要来北京设办事处，乡镇都愿意来。企业也一样，你以为不是央企就不愿意来？要来得多了去。精英积聚，底层人民还能不来？有活干、有收入啊。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">要承认大都市有扶贫功能。那是送上门来的扶贫，如果推出去，完成精准扶贫的难度会提高。北京周围大片地区比较穷，但凡挤到北京来，干点啥也比老家强。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">当然，中国今天国际地位提升，国事国务活动对首都提出新要求。这也是现实问题。北京的当务之急，是先把首都核心区做达标。其实，在核心区里没多少农民工。像金融街周围堵车，哪里是民工弄堵的？恐怕还是大机关、大央企、大部门，并不承担首都核心职能，却在核心区里占据过多资源。从这方面去清，见效快。千万别给人一个印象，好像为了发挥首都核心功能，就要先把“低端产业人口”轰出去。<p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: -apple-system-font, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">另外，国事国务活动似乎也要讲效果。规格高，不一定非得排场大。白宫并不大，只是那块南草坪，可不是谁来了都可以上去走一遭的。巴黎、东京、伦敦、莫斯科，负担国务国事活动的空间占比都不大。首都的其余空间，就是本国一个大城市，把通常的城市功能承担好、管理好就不错。