<!–[if gte mso 10]> <![endif]–> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">最近美国总统川普宣布要给进口钢铁和铝加关税。消息一传出立刻哗然，从欧洲加拿大到中国一片抗议声（有很多很多报道和评论，文后给出一些较有价值的链接）。贸易是双边的多边的。如果美国单方面采取行动，其他贸易伙伴可能会报复。这可能导致逐步升级形成贸易战。加拿大欧洲已经声明将为保护自己国家利益作出反应。如果发生大规模贸易战的话，大多数国家（如果不是所有国家的话）都会受损失。贸易战是导致三十年代大萧条的一个因素。许多人认为大萧条导致了法西斯兴起，最终导致世界大战。听起来很吓人。到底会不会呢？现在预言还为时过早。下面先作些战略分析。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"; color:#111111">川普的主要经济顾问有三位：财长</span></span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">Steven Mnuchin</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">，</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">Gary Cohn</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">，贸易部长</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Wilbur Ross</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">Mnuchin</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">和</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">Cohn</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">在政府和商界都很受尊重，同时他们刚立了大功</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">，帮助设计和通过这次税改。<span style="color:#111111">据报道他们倆反对川普这次加进口关税，只有贸易部长</span></span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">Ross</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#111111">支持。所以这次是川普叫板。上次竞选时我就听到过</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Wilbur Ross</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">的经济策略，他强调中国的贸易政策对美国的损害。<span style="color:#111111">川普竞选时的确有加关税的承诺。但多数政客竞选时讲一套上台后做的是另一套。这方面川普是个异数，前些时候他下令把美国驻以色列大使馆迁移到耶路撒冷就是一例。</span></span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">为什么川普不顾主要经济助手的建议不怕打贸易战打出关税这张牌呢？首先这与川普的性格有关。川普是地产商出身与企业家银行家不一样。川普的竞选对手之一，前佛州州长，小布什总统的弟弟</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Jeb Bush</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">说川普的管理方式是</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">chaotic</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。这话很正确。川普不怕打破建制，而且他也声明要打破建制。他的逻辑是先打乱再收拾。其次，川普是</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Poker Player</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">，就是说他敢下赌注。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">川普的关税政策报道以后，</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Wilbur Ross</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">在</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">CNBC</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">有个访谈</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">[1]</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。开始部分他以一罐常见食品和一罐可乐为例说明这次关税对它们的成本影响微乎其微。这些以微观经济来解释宏观经济有很大局限，一位对宏观经济学有一些知识的人可能有</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">N</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">种方法反驳</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Ross</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。可惜这篇视频只有访谈的前部分，而我认为后面重要的多。我网上找了一下，都只报道前面。</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Ross</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">接着说我赞成</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">free trade</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">，美国赞成</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">free trade</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。我上次参加</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Davos</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">世界经济论坛。在有欧洲中国财长参加时指出美国的进口关税是最低的。（下面仅凭记忆）美国汽车进口关税是</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">5%</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">，欧洲是</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">15%</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">，中国</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">25%</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。另外</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Ross</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">在访谈时还提到一点。这些不同的关税是二战后美国为了帮助欧洲日本恢复而设置的，接受中国的关税是为了中国加入国际社会而考虑。现在的情况应该进行调整使更公平。这大概是川普的底线。你要打贸易战吗？看谁吃亏更多。将来的发展肯定有许多变数。拭目以待。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><em><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">注释：</span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">1</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Wilbur Ross CNBC </span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">访谈：</span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/commerce-secretary-wilbur-ross-trump-tariffs-will-have-a-broad-but-trivial-impact-on-prices.html"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/commerce-secretary-wilbur-ross-trump-tariffs-will-have-a-broad-but-trivial-impact-on-prices.html</span></span></a><span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span> </span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">相关链接：</span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">1</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）有许多报道。比较全面的一篇：</span></span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2018/03/02/the-finance-202-trump-tariffs-threaten-to-unleash-economic-chaos/5a9850b730fb047655a06a3c/?utm_term=.6d5b8fb76f20&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2018/03/02/the-finance-202-trump-tariffs-threaten-to-unleash-economic-chaos/5a9850b730fb047655a06a3c/?utm_term=.6d5b8fb76f20&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1</span></span></a><span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">2</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）另一篇分析有些意思：</span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">James Hohmann: Trump triangulates on trade. Here are five takeaways from the tariff announcement.</span></span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span>https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/03/02/daily-202-trump-triangulates-on-trade-here-are-five-takeaways-from-the-tariff-announcement/5a98d4ab30fb047655a06a5b/?undefined=&utm_term=.99b216e021ab&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1</span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">要点：</span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span><span>1. This announcement is partly the consequence of a White House that has been unmoored since Rob Porter’s departure amid allegations of abuse by his two ex-wives. “Porter was part of an exodus of advisers who had worked to try to keep Trump focused and away from his protectionist instincts,</span></span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span> </span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span>2. Gary Cohn is on the outs. </span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span> </span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span><span>3. The tariffs, depending on how they are designed, may hurt the United States economy much more than they help.</span></span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span> </span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span><span>4. Trump is showing his age by focusing more on the old economy than the new economy.</span></span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span> </span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span><span><span>5. Because the rollout of the tariffs was not choreographed and there was no coordinated messaging coming out of the White House, the coverage of Trump’s announcement is overwhelmingly negative in the mainstream media. </span></span></span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span> </span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span> </span></em></p><em> </em><p><em><span> </span></em></p><em> </em><p><em> </em></p><em> </em>