<p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; background-color: #ffffff;">习近平提出中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦给民主台湾带来巨大压力。法新社认为，中共现在提出修宪，习近平可能有一生的时间实现他的野心，这更是让台湾“压力山大”。</p><div style="margin: 7px 0px 10px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%BC%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E7%99%BB%E5%9F%BA%E8%83%8C%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%97/a-42866022?&zhongwen=simp#" link="/overlay/image/article/42866022/40982847" rel="nofollow" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none; cursor: pointer;"><img src="http://www.dw.com/image/40982847_303.jpg" title="China Vorbereitungen für Parteitag der Kommunistischen Partei | (picture-alliance/dpa/AP/M. Schiefelbein)" alt="China Vorbereitungen für Parteitag der Kommunistischen Partei | (picture-alliance/dpa/AP/M. Schiefelbein)" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px; height: auto;" /></a><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #888888; padding: 4px 0px; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: 720px;">目前中国的国防支出仅次于美国，以1.1万亿元（折合1730亿美元）位居世界第二</p></div><div style="margin-bottom: 30px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #3e3e3e; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";"><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">（德国之声中文网）中共中央委员会提出修改宪法，取消主席与副主席任期限制，为习近平常年执政铺平道路，让他成为自毛泽东以来最有影响力的中国领导人。分析人士预测，无论是经济、国防还是外交等等多个方面，台湾都将面临来自北京当局的压力。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">北京将台湾看作是一个叛离的省份。香港时政评论人林和立向法新社表示："统一台湾会是习近平的一个主要心头之愿。他一心想统一，因为这将奠定他的历史地位。"</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">林和立补充说，统一台湾是习近平将中国打造为全球超级大国计划中的一个关键部分，他这样做可以实现甚至毛泽东没有做到的事情。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">直到二战结束，台湾经历了50年的日本统治时期，之后台湾受到主要盟友美国的保护。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">据估计，人大将在周日通过宪法修改建议，删除国家主席、国家副主席"不得连任多于两届"的规定。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">本周一举行的全国人大会议开幕式上，李克强讲话时谈到港澳台政策，他说，中国"坚持一个中国原则，在\’九二共识\’基础上推动两岸关系和平发展，推进祖国和平统一进程。坚决维护国家主权和领土完整，绝不容忍任何\’台独\’分裂图谋和行径。 "</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";">北京会不会"武统"？</span></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">北京时政观察人士华颇认为，他相信习近平首先将注意力转向国内问题，不过，解决所谓的"台湾问题"是每个中国领导人的愿望："习近平取得内部稳定后，将对台湾采取更加强硬有力的措施。" 华颇指出，北京可能也会采取武统行动。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">然而大多数观察人士认为，中国不会采取军事干预，这样做会引起美国做出反应，也损害北京的国际形象。他们估计，北京将积极继续军队"秀肌肉"的做法。 在过去的一年中，中国加强了在台湾周围海域的演习，台湾表示将增加军备投资，应对日益增加的威胁。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">另外，台湾还会面对新的外交和经济压力。 过去两年，中国在全球各地拉走了更多台湾的盟友。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">"诺丁汉大学中国政策研究所所长乔纳森·苏利文(Jonathan Sullivan)分析，北京将会使用强硬措施与魅力攻势相结合的方式，加强与台湾政界人物和台企的关系："继续使用胡萝卜加大棒策略中。"</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">法新社指出，习近平提出的，反对挑战中国主权的说法也针对香港。有香港活跃人士提出的"港独"激怒了北京。周一的全国人大会议上，李克强做报告时并没有像往届那样提到"港人治港"、"高度自治"等关键字眼。</p><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both;"><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%BC%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E7%99%BB%E5%9F%BA%E8%83%8C%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%97/a-42866022?&zhongwen=simp#" link="/overlay/image/article/42866022/40966489" rel="nofollow" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none; cursor: pointer;"><img width="700" height="394" src="http://www.dw.com/image/40966489_401.jpg" title="习近平需要一些具体的东西去证明为什么要延长限期……台湾会感受到越来越大的压力。" alt="Kombobild Chinese President Xi Jinping +Tsai Ing-wen" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px; height: auto;" /></a><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #888888; padding: 4px 0px; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: 720px;">"习近平需要一些具体的东西去证明为什么要延长限期……台湾会感受到越来越大的压力。"</p></div><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";">台湾会被当作筹码和例证？</span></p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">自1949年以来，台湾从未从正式宣布独立，中国表示，将对任何企图分裂的行为做出回应。北京对台湾总统蔡英文拒绝认同"一个中国"大为不满，蔡英文上台不久，中国2016年单方面切断了两岸官方常态联络机构的联系。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">台湾将继续寻求其传统盟友美国的支持，但分析人士认为，特朗普总统的决策难以预测。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">有一些台湾人士担心，北京与美国交涉朝鲜问题时，台湾会被当作筹码。不过有迹象显示，美国将进一步支持台湾象。上个星期，美国参议院通过一项法案，鼓励美国和台湾官员互访。这引起了北京的不满。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">1979年，华盛顿切断了与台湾的外交关系，但维持与台湾的贸易关系并向其出售武器。</p><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">分析人士认为，两岸僵局看不到终点。台湾大学政治学者张亚中表示："习近平需要一些具体的东西去证明为什么要延长限期……台湾会感受到越来越大的压力。"</p><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";"><div style="width: 720px; float: left;"><div data-id="41561628" data-title="以“颠覆国家政权”之名" data-date="20171128" style="float: left; width: 700px; height: auto; margin: 0px 0px 30px; background-color: #000000; position: static !important;"><ul style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; list-style: none inside; overflow: hidden; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; position: relative; width: 700px; height: 561.42px;"><li style="background-image: url("../cssi/list-blip.png"); background-position: 1px 10px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; opacity: 1; min-height: 544px; display: block; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 7;"><div style="float: left; position: relative; width: 700px; height: 394px; overflow: hidden; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-color: #111111; clear: both; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 10; cursor: pointer;"><img src="http://www.dw.com/image/40442293_303.jpg" title="China Prozess Lee Ming-Che (picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Wang)" alt="China Prozess Lee Ming-Che (picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Wang)" style="width: 700px;" /></div><div style="position: relative; left: 0px; bottom: 0px; z-index: 11; width: 700px; margin: 0px; padding: 15px; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; height: auto; min-height: 150px;"><div></div><h4>以“颠覆国家政权”之名</h4><h2>李明哲</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #bbbbbb; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: auto;">2017年11月，台湾人权人士李明哲在中国大陆被岳阳中级人民法院以“颠覆国家政权罪”判处5年监禁。李明哲曾举办网络政治讲座，并为中国系狱异议人士的家属提供帮助。</p></div></li></ul><br /><div style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; height: 40px;"><div style="position: relative; z-index: 100; left: 6px; bottom: 0px; width: 678.991px; overflow: hidden;"><div style="float: right;"><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; 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text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">1</a><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%BC%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E7%99%BB%E5%9F%BA%E8%83%8C%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%97/a-42866022?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">2</a><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%BC%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E7%99%BB%E5%9F%BA%E8%83%8C%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%97/a-42866022?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p2" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">3</a><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%BC%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E7%99%BB%E5%9F%BA%E8%83%8C%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%97/a-42866022?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p3" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">4</a><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%BC%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E7%99%BB%E5%9F%BA%E8%83%8C%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%97/a-42866022?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p4" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">5</a><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%BC%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E7%99%BB%E5%9F%BA%E8%83%8C%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%97/a-42866022?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p5" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">6</a><a href="http://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%BC%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%BB%9F%E4%B8%80%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E4%B8%BA%E7%99%BB%E5%9F%BA%E8%83%8C%E4%B9%A6%E5%90%97/a-42866022?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p6" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">7</a></span></div></div></div></div></div><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><br /></p></div></div>