<p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">中国国家主席</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/topic/person/xi-jinping" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">习近平</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">要求北京减少人口，他的亲信便下令</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171201/china-beijing-migrants/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">铲平数万名民工的家园</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">。习近平要求中国北方各省减少雾霾，于是干部们</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20180213/china-coal-smog-pollution/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">拆掉了暖气和煤炉</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">，让居民在家中挨冻。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">这些天来，当习近平讲话时，从共产党最高层的官员到最低级的村委会成员都在聚精会神地聆听。由于</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20180225/china-xi-jinping/" title="Link: https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20180225/china-xi-jinping/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">扫清了宪法中对他国家主席职务任期的限制</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">，加强了他对国家的控制，这些人面临的压力会有所增加。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">但正如近期这些案例所表明的，习近平令人生畏的权力可能会削弱有效的政策；底层官员为了达到或超额完成任务而紧急行动起来，往往亦会导致过度和混乱，从而引发公众愤怒。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">“每当中国进行自上而下的大规模运动或行动时，过度热忱的官员和过度服从都会导致问题，”位于纽约的外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)中国内外政策专家</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.cfr.org/experts/elizabeth-c-economy" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">易明(Elizabeth Economy)</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">说，她著有</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.cfr.org/book/third-revolution" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">一本关于习近平治国政策的书</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">“习近平领导下的中国将会特别容易遇到这一挑战，”她说。“他几乎完全以自上而下的方式运作，而他对控制的重视意味着反馈机制——也就是来自市场和公民社会的信号——不能很好地发挥作用。”</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">许多中国人对习近平雷厉风行、掌控一切的做法表示欢迎，因为他们觉得其前任</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/topic/person/hu-jintao" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">胡锦涛</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">的统治显得无所作为。在他治下，</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://zqb.cyol.com/content/2005-11/17/content_1204602.htm" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">人们都在哀叹“</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">中央政令有时出不了中南海”——中南海是共产党位于北京的总部所在地。2012年，胡锦涛将统治权交给了习近平。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">从那时起，习近平将自己定位为一个坚定果断、毫不动摇的领导人，决心通过</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20180227/xi-jinping-thought-explained-a-new-ideology-for-a-new-era/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">长期计划</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">，令中国成为受人尊敬的繁荣大国。周日，中国立法机关全国人民代表大会通过了一项宪法修正案，</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20180311/china-xi-constitution-term-limits/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">删除了对国家主席的两届任期限制</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">，使得习近平对中国的统治得以至少再延续十年。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">在人大于周六</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20180319/china-wang-qishan-vice-president/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">全票通过</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">之后，习近平开始了他的第二个五年任期。官员们表示，在本届任期之后继续延长习近平的统治，将在几十年间确保政策稳定。习近平获得延长任期的方式</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20180308/china-xi-jinping-party-term-limit/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">迅速而隐秘</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">，这令官员们明白，他可以击溃任何阻挠自己的力量。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">“习近平实际上在向反对他政策议程的人发出信号，表示他们别指望等着他卸任，而是需要加入他的议程，”国家安全委员会(National Security Council)前中国事务主管、现为布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)研究院的何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)说。“他肯定是觉得必须打击针对他议程的反对力量，否则不会冒着风险走出这一步。”</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">习近平已经通过</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171130/china-xi-jinping-anticorruption/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">反腐败行动</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">建立了广泛的权威，并且创建了</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171026/china-xi-jinping-titles-chairman/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">大量新的权力</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">和领导小组，将决策权让渡给他。他</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171011/xi-jinping-military-china-purge/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">对军队的整顿</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">也表明他有意与根深蒂固的官僚机构较量。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">周二在大会上宣布的部门和机构重组可以令习近平和其他领导人更好地引导官僚机构。周一将宣布的新一届政府人员构成很可能会令习近平的亲密盟友在他的政府中执掌大权，从而更容易沟通和完善政令。比如他的盟友王岐山就在周六成为了副主席。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">但是，习近平集中掌控庞大的官僚体系也会造成混乱和失控。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">一家</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20170328/chinese-economy-reform-critical-report/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">中国政府智库于去年表示</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">，官员往往不愿做出冒风险的决定，从而为自己招来腐败或政治上有异心的怀疑。但是，当被要求采取行动时，干部往往又希望避免偷懒之嫌。几位专家表示，最后可能导致一种复杂的混合，一方面对政令反应过度，另一方面又不愿主动采取行动。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">“命令都是从党的高层发出，而且实施时是不可行的,”安可顾问公司(APCO Worldwide)大中华区主席麦健陆(James McGregor)说，他为同中国官僚打交道的公司提供咨询。“这些日子以来，让官员做出决定是很困难的，因为他们都害怕做错事。”</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">中国自上而下的体制从来很容易出现失控情况。但是这类问题中的几个因素可能会在习近平的下一任期内放大。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">近年来，他在大多数省份和部委安排了忠于他的官员，狂热的支持者发誓无条件服从于他。他们的敬畏服从可能会使得模糊或冲突的政策也被严格地执行。很少有官员会因为过分急切地实施习近平的命令而受到严厉的惩罚。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">“忠诚不绝对，就是绝对不忠诚，”被习近平擢升到党内最高级别的狂热追随者之一</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2016/10-21/8039279.shtml" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">李鸿忠在2016年表示</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">习近平连通党和政府机构的行动可能会阻止中层的技术官僚改进政策。而习近平对人权律师、人权倡导人士、思想独立的记者及网络讨论的打击，压制了许多本可以对政府的失误决策提出质疑的声音。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">没人认为这样的过火会像毛泽东的大跃进及其随后的饥荒一样，带来什么灾难性后果。但清华大学知名社会学家孙立平警告，要反对会在下级中煽动起过度狂热的运动式体制机构。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">“有时，运动式治理会演变成官员之间的竞赛，你狠我比你还狠，你极端我比你还极端，”对于近期官员行为过火的事例，孙立平在</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://chinamediaproject.org/2018/02/13/mobilizing-for-the-china-solution/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">一篇文章</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">中这样写道，文章从上个月开始在中国的网络上流传，后被审查删除。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">“一刀切、大呼隆，层层加码，在任务完成之后，就是一地鸡毛，”孙立平写道，用了一句俗语来形容琐碎的小事。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">去年夏末，为减少中国北方的煤炭使用量，用更清洁的天然气取而代之，官员们拆除了煤炉并叫停了煤炭输送。然而由于天然气管道尚未完工，冬天到来的时候，天然气供应无法跟上。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2017-04/13/c_1120806042.htm" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">最早至少在2014年</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">，习近平就曾勒令减少北京人口。但行动进行得断断续续，直到习近平的亲信蔡奇去年借</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171120/china-fire-beijing/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">一栋公寓楼着火</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">之机，开始了大规模拆迁，显然是急于在北京市党委领导人的位子上留下自己的印记。最终，成千上万的人没有了家，忙乱地寻找避难之所。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">官员们也在争先恐后地实现着习近平最宏大的愿景，包括北京以南80英里处的一座庞大的示范城市——</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20170405/china-economic-zone-xiongan/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">雄安新区</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">。习近平大约</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1653717" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">在一年前</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">就已开始宣扬这个想法。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">并非习近平的所有政策都容易引发过度狂热。加州大学圣迭戈分校(University of California, San Diego)研究中国经济决策的教授巴里·诺顿(Barry Naughton)说，金融政策</span><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/world/asia/china-stock-market-crash-communist-xi-jinping.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">自2015年动摇了政策回旋</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">后已经稳定了下来。但如果中国经济遇到坎坷，要在支持增长和遏制债务之间作出艰难选择，这样的稳定或许不会持久。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">“在我看来，见风使舵、阿谀奉承、溜须拍马都变得越来越重要了，”诺顿说。“这将从整体上改变体制的运作方式。”</span></p>