<p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>整个五月，没有新闻比中国副总理刘鹤领衔的访美使团吸引更多目光。5月19日，中美两国《中美就经贸磋商发表联合声明》（以下简称声明）的出台，更是引发不同声音，如何看待这一事件？</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>首先，声明究竟说了什么？</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>简单来说，涉及三方面内容。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">第一，提到减少贸易逆差，但是没有提出具体数字。</strong>声明指出，双方同意将采取有效措施实质性减少美对华货物贸易逆差，“为满足中国人民不断增长的消费需求和促进高质量经济发展，中方将大量增加自美购买商品和服务。这也有助于美国经济增长和就业。”</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">第二，强调加强合作，这其实意味着本次谈判之后还有后手。</strong>声明指出，双方同意有意义地增加美国农产品和能源出口，美方将派团赴华讨论具体事项，同时双方同意继续就此保持高层沟通，积极寻求解决各自关注的经贸问题。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">最后，也提到减少分歧，主要体现为营商环境改善以及知识产权。</strong>这主要体现为双方扩大制造业产品和服务贸易创造有利条件以及争议最大的知识产权保护，“中方将推进包括《专利法》在内的相关法律法规修订工作。双方同意鼓励双向投资，将努力创造公平竞争营商环境。”</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>比起明确的文字，更值得深究的是声明透露了什么信息？这次声明初读很是含混，既没有表示具体数字，也没有谈到具体政策。然而全文看起来很简单，但是信息量不少，基本点在于双方谈拢了。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>所谓外交，其实很多时候，就是大家都可以接受的最大外交公约数，彼此都要面子。固然，买什么、如何买、何时买等问题没有写明，但纸面上的声明的模糊，其实为未来的操作留下空间。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>回看30多年前日美贸易战之时的《广场协议》，公告写得也很简单，但背后很多实质性措施都已经谈好，称为“无纸面记录”。与抽象简单的公告不同，这一份所有参与国都同意的“无纸面记录”，对汇率目标、行动方案、干预总规模、干预货币、各国认领干预份额都做了详细规定，最终的各国行动也基本忠实地执行了该约定。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>一个细节是，本次中美声明具体谈到了农产品和能源，我以前也猜测如此。这对于中国来说是一个让步，如果增加采购美国农产品与能源，相应地可能不得不减少从其他国家的进口，其中涉及到俄罗斯、委内瑞拉、澳大利亚等传统上的进口大国，其实需要中国做出相应调整，也会付出一定代价。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>更深一步看，本次会谈看似中美对局，其实是从经济层面而言，涉及两个国家四种路线的博弈。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>双方温和派都希望谈成，但是各自国内都有强硬派的声音。从美方来看，以对中国贸易态度而言，可以为鸽派与鹰派，鸽派以美国财长史蒂文•姆努钦（Steven Mnuchin）为代表，更在意中国贸易中中国分走多少好处，希望通过谈判拿回好处；另一边则是主张强硬的鹰派，比如以白宫贸易顾问彼得•纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）为代表，更在意狙击与惩罚中国。反过来，中国的情况也类似，有希望谈判的温和派，也有希望强硬对抗美国的声音。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>就谈判而言，双方的温和派都希望达成共识，而对抗则符合双方强硬派利益。所以这一场贸易谈判，正对应两个国家四个路线的分歧，刘鹤身份是国家主席特使、国务院副总理，他带回的协议其实也需要四个派别一定程度的默许。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>本次情况来看，温和派达成了协议，至少短期内不会有太多大冲突，中美阶段性共识初步达成。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">那么，到底谁赢了？</strong></p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>有朋友在我在公号《徐瑾经济人》直接发问。目前声明还是留下很多未解决的问题与细节：2000亿美元不见踪迹、特朗普表态软化的中兴事件没有出现在协议中、社交媒体关于外网消息满天飞。太多的流言，在没有实际信息之前，更多应该作为背景补充以及人心所向。抛开这些细节之外，或许可以说，对于中国民众而言，这次显然是利好，无论是享受更优质价廉的商品，还是未来可以稳定发展的环境。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>北大教授、经济人读书会书友苏剑老师曾经说，“美国是我国最大的顾客，是我们的生意伙伴”，也正因此，满足客户要求并不丢人，本就是商业活动的应有之意，要点在于“这就把我国改革开放的长远目标和我国顾客的诉求结合起来，既满足了顾客的要求，也加快了我国改革开放的步伐。”</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>这一观点见仁见智，但是在商言商其实是国人应该补上的一课，这也意味着，对于双方贸易与经济之外的谈判目标，不应该抱有太大期望。即使如此，中美双方决定不打贸易战，这一决定本身，其意义无论怎么强调都不过分，它很可能对中国乃至世界的未来道路都有重大影响，其意义要在数年之后才能被真正认识。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>回顾历史，国家道路的选择，如果缺乏外力，在国内各利益集团博弈之下，基本可以决定路径与格局，路径依赖制约之下，道路锁定的情况常见。这种情况之下，国际局势的变化，尤其是与主要大国的冲突，往往会带来意料不到的变化。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>无论历史上的大清还是八十年代的日本，都面临海外压力带来自身改变的案例，前者是从朝贡模式进入条约模式，后者则是通过广场协议等条款进入西方政策协同的世界——值得一提的是，国内对于广场协议导致日本泡沫这一认知存在误读。</p><p style=\’margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 1em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28.336px; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Verdana, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti SC", STHeiti, "Microsoft Yahei", SimSun, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #fff1e5; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\’>公允地说，如果贸易谈判可以促进中国国内无法推动的改革，对于中国并不算很坏的结果。面对巨大挑战是中美两国的共同处境，如果能够积极顺应、勠力改革，那么其实对于双方民众都是福祉。<strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">本文仅代表作者本人观点。</strong></p><strong></strong><em></em><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><strong></strong><em></em><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>