<div><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2018/Jun/610201810-2.jpg" width="660" height="371" alt="" style="font-size: 12pt;" /></div><div><span style="color: #ececec; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; background-color: #111111; font-size: 12pt;">金正恩抵达新加坡</span></div><div><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">美国总统特朗普称，下周二于新加坡举行的美国-朝鲜领导人见面会上，金正恩有“一次性”求和平的机会。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">周二的会面将在新加坡圣淘沙岛上的五星级酒店嘉佩乐举行。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">金正恩已经在6月10日下午抵达新加坡，他将是第一位与在任美国总统见面的朝鲜领导人。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">特朗普称此次见面是“带着和平的使命”，是“带着最真挚的心态在一个未知领域”进行谈判。特朗普刚刚结束在加拿大的G7峰会。会上，他与其他主要国家元首就关税问题发生了争吵。在去新加坡的路上，特朗普发了一条推特，表达了对“特金会”很乐观。美国希望此次会谈后，朝鲜能开启放弃核武器之路。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">在过去的一年半里，特朗普与金正恩的关系经历了激烈的动荡。</span></p><h2><span style="font-size: 12pt;">谈判如何促成？</span></h2><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111;"><div style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.609px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/720×405/p069cj3q.jpg" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px -25.6719px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; display: block; position: absolute;" alt="" /><div style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.609px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px; position: relative;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div id="sticky-player-1" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div></div></div></div></div><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">KIM</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">特朗普上任第一年，朝鲜不顾国际社会的频频警告，进行了多次导弹测试。对此，美国和朝鲜进行了多个回合的争吵。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">期间，特朗普成功让联合国加紧对朝鲜制裁，并成功让朝鲜的长期盟友中国加入制裁行列。特朗普还称，如果平壤继续威胁美国，他就要对朝鲜发动“烈焰与怒火”。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">金正恩也不甘示弱，他回骂特朗普，称他为“精神错乱”的“老糊涂蛋”（dotard）。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">尽管白宫对朝鲜施加了“最大压力”，但迹象显示朝鲜并没有被震慑住。从2017年9月开始，朝鲜持续挑衅，一共进行了6次核试验。金正恩还宣布，朝鲜完成了“成为核武器拥有国”的使命，朝鲜的导弹能直接打到美国。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2018年初，由于朝鲜与韩国的外交关系因冬奥会转暖，美国和朝鲜的关系也出现了转机。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3月，特朗普做出了震惊世界的举动，他接受了金正恩邀请他见面的提议，这一提议由朝鲜通过韩国转达至美国。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">但之后，特朗普又突然发推特称，要取消与金正恩的见面。之后，两国又进行了外交斡旋，现在，两方终于要在新加坡见面了。</span></p><h2><span style="font-size: 12pt;">两方各有什么需求？</span></h2><div><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2018/Jun/610201810-2-2.jpg" width="624" height="351" alt="" /> </div><div><span style="color: #ececec; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; background-color: #111111; font-size: 12pt;">特朗普从加拿大出发去新加坡。</span></div><div> </div><div><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">美国国防部长马蒂斯(James Mattis)近期称，美国想要朝鲜彻底放弃核武器，只有这样，联合国才会放松对朝鲜的制裁。但这并不意味着美国在新加坡就能如意，特朗普也称，朝鲜彻底放弃核武器会有一个过程。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">分析者认为，金正恩与世界上最强势的领导人见面，这已经是一种胜利了。分析也怀疑，金正恩费尽精力研制核武器，怎么可能就这么轻易放弃。有观点认为，他根本不可能放弃核武器，除非朝鲜半岛周边的所有国家，包括美国在内，全部卸除武器。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">当然，金正恩也说了，他现在要把精力集中在发展朝鲜经济上，因此他需要联合国放松制裁，同时需要国际投资。 问题在于，金正恩会做出何种让步，以及他是否会信守他做出的每一个承诺。他的前任领导人也曾经做出过废除核项目的承诺。</span></p><h2><span style="font-size: 12pt;">可能会发生什么？</span></h2><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2018/Jun/610201810-2-3.jpg" width="624" height="351" alt="" /> </div><div><span style="color: #ececec; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; background-color: #111111; font-size: 12pt;">6月8日，特朗普和金正恩的模仿者在新加坡街头占尽风头。</span></div><div> </div><div><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">虽然结果很难预测，但特朗普已经发出了信号称，他们可能会签署一个朝鲜战争正式结束的协议（朝鲜和韩国在1953年签署了停战协议）。特朗普称这点应该“比较容易”。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">特朗普称，如果他认为事态发展不好，他会走出会议室，如果进展顺利，他会邀请金正恩去白宫。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">美国国务卿蓬佩奥（Mike Pompeo）近期已经跟金正恩见了两次面，称他相信金正恩“已经做好了去核准备”已经会做出“很大且大胆的”变化。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">目前，韩国和朝鲜都没有做太多关于自身立场的说明。</span></p><h2><span style="font-size: 12pt;">为何选新加坡见面？</span></h2><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2018/Jun/610201810-2-4.jpg" width="624" height="351" alt="" /> </div><div><span style="color: #ececec; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; background-color: #111111; font-size: 12pt;">各国领导人入住的酒店，警备森严。</span></div><div> </div><div><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">新加坡很安全，而且之前也曾给其他高级别的会面提供场所。在新加坡，未经警察批准的游行是被禁止的。因此，此次峰会几乎没有被公众阻碍的风险。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">新加坡是美国的亲密盟友，但同时又是为数不多的跟朝鲜做生意的国家之一，朝鲜目前在新加坡也有大使。金氏家族也曾说过，在这个富有又现代化的国家很舒服。</span></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">峰会场所嘉佩乐酒店的入口很好控制，只有一条缆车，一条单轨铁路，一条人行堤道，以及一条机动车隧道。</span></p><h2><span style="font-size: 12pt;">其他国家如何看？</span></h2><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2018/Jun/610201810-2-5.jpg" width="624" height="351" alt="" /> </div><div><span style="color: #ececec; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; background-color: #111111; font-size: 12pt;">周六，首尔举行了支持峰会的游行。</span></div><div> </div><div><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">韩国</strong> 一直在致力于推动此次峰会并希望成功。韩国是美国和朝鲜的中间人，韩国总统文在寅也希望正式结束朝鲜战争。周六，首尔举行了支持峰会的游行。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国</strong> 是朝鲜的传统盟友，会密切关注此次峰会。中国不希望自己的战略利益在任何协议中被边缘化。中国希望保持自己的影响力，因此在峰会召开前，中国邀请了金正恩去北京见习近平。分析称，从长远的角度看，中国最不想见到的噩梦就是统一后的朝鲜和韩国与美国一起，在其边境布置军队。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">日本</strong> 长期生活在朝鲜半岛的威胁下，日本希望朝鲜终止核项目。同时，日本也在敦促白宫在此次峰会提及朝鲜绑架日本公民的事件。</p> </div> </div>