英伦热议:特朗普经济遏制中国的时机与道理

<div style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><div property="articleBody" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 53.7656px 0px auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="中国歼-31隐形战斗机" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/33CC/production/_102206231_b9c60007-a032-4886-8828-a184e11688d7.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">XINHUA</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">杰里米&#183;华纳认为中国的歼-31隐形战机完全是按照洛克希德&#183;马丁(Lockheed Martin)的F-35战机技术仿制。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">对中国贸易战是经济之争,还是要最终遏制中国崛起的雄心。另外,通过贸易战遏制中国经济进步,不让中国14亿人口有机会达到美国人的生活水平,道德上是否成立?</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美国总统特朗普对欧盟钢铝进口征收关税遭到欧盟报复,欧盟开始对包括酒类,花生酱和橙汁在内的美国产品增加关税。与此同时,美国对中国340亿美元的商品增加关税,北京也发誓要对美国大豆和其他农产品施加关税报复。特朗普指责中国"无意改变与收购美国知识产权和技术有关的不公平做法",因此威胁(6月18日)说,在此前公布的500亿美元征税清单基础上,可能再对价值2000亿美元的中国产品加征10%关税。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">特朗普增加关税对付欧盟和中国,如果他的关税措施仅限于那些对美国人生活影响不大的产品尚可,但对进口增加关税导致价格上涨,美国消费者自然会付出代价。因此有分析质疑特朗普对贸易的解读是否正确。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">按照特朗普的秉性看,他最终目的是什么谁也不清楚,可能连他自己都不知道。英国著名经济评论人士杰里米&#183;华纳(Jeremy Warner)说,特朗普的好战姿态是警告、还是要永久性打压中国的雄心和能力?美国总统似乎对欧洲也要跃跃欲试开打贸易战,而欧洲并没有对美国霸权构成威胁,不仅如此,欧洲还是美国最大的盟友。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">杰里米&#183;华纳周五(6月22日)在《每日电讯报》的文章中还举例质疑特朗普同中国打贸易战的逻辑。他以苹果X手机为例说,该手机售价为1000美元,生产成本为370美元,其中大部分归作为生产地的中国。但是手机的零部件来自世界各地,包括美国,知识产权也完全归美国所有。中国在增加价值中的份额最多不过6%。特朗普真的要为这区区6%同中国打贸易战吗?</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-44567245" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">特朗普贸易大棒另有深意 目标并非中国崛起</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-44538068" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">英伦热议:&#8220;西方有分裂危险&#8221; 都怪看错中国</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-44524003" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">英伦热议:&#8220;中国速度&#8221;令英国人吐槽铁路</a></li></ul><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/F397/production/_102195326_63647820-76bb-429b-acda-58a1c32a5fac.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/F397/production/_102195326_63647820-76bb-429b-acda-58a1c32a5fac.jpg" alt="春运" width="624" height="351" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">REUTERS</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">英国经济评论员提出问题:谋求在半途阻止中国经济进步是否合理?不让中国14亿人口有机会达到美国人的生活水平,道德上是否说得过去呢?</span></figcaption></figure><h2>"贸易恐怖主义"</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国批评美方采取"极限施压和讹诈的做法,违背了中美磋商共识,也令国际社会十分失望。中国媒体指责美国追求的并非"贸易平衡",而是用贸易关税大棒维护美国在政治、经济、军事、科技等方面的绝对霸主地位,显示了"宁可我负天下人,不可天下人负我"的霸主心态,是赤裸裸的"贸易恐怖主义"。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">特朗普认为,中国贸易政策是明显的重商主义,而且操纵货币,补贴出口,不公平地利用自由的西方市场,占尽好处,盗窃西方技术,取得了历史罕见的巨大经济发展成就。美国忍无可忍,要制止这种不公平的做法。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">《每日电讯报》的编辑杰里米&#183;华纳撰文说,即使美国对中国的假设成立,但现在先发制人发动贸易战,半途阻止中国发展,已经为时过晚。中国的经济列车早已上路。他说,该发生的已经发生,技术转移基本完成,在覆水难收的情况下,对中国施加压力,为时已晚。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国对美国技术主宰形成了真正的挑战,而且来势越来越猛。杰里米&#183;华纳说,特朗普高喊"美国第一",而中国则实实在在这么做。现在中国又俨然以"基于规则"的贸易秩序倡导者自居,而特朗普却成了极力破坏这种秩序的人。</p><h2>"不必妄自菲薄"</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">特朗普让美国人相信自己的国家处于衰落的边缘,需要采取先发制人的行动。美国国际战略研究中心(CSIS)的中国问题专家司考特&#8729;肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)说,"华盛顿许多人认为中国占尽目前体制安排的好处,必须要管住中国,否则就来不及了。"</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">但是经济评论作者杰里米&#183;华纳认为,美国不必低估美国人的创新能力和公司实力,美国在这方面仍然继续享有领先的主宰地位。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">他以苹果手机和中国的歼-31隐形战机为例说明中国要在技术上赶超美国,仍然要走很长一段路。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">杰里米&#183;华纳认为,中国的歼-31隐形战机完全是按照偷来的洛克希德&#183;马丁(Lockheed Martin)的F-35战机技术仿制,他还把中国这款新型战机说成是死亡陷阱(能导致致命事故之意)。</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-41013152" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; 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padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">中情局局长:美国最大威胁来自中国而非俄国</a></li></ul><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/1786/production/_102122060_gettyimages-950353006.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/1786/production/_102122060_gettyimages-950353006.jpg" alt="5G芯片" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">中国制造2025规划涉及的信息技术产业、高档数控机床和机器人、航空航天设备、海洋工程装备及高技术船舶、先进轨道交通装备、节能与新能源汽车、电力装备、农机装备、生物医药及高性能医疗器械等十个产业是第四次工业革命的核心产业。</span></figcaption></figure><h2>遏制的道德问题</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国崛起并在经济科技等方面赶超美国是进入21世纪以来中国的热门话题,也是世界舆论关注的焦点之一。中国人口众多,经济增长迅速,潜力巨大。但中国也存在许多经济、政治等方面的问题有待克服,同美国存在不小的差距。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">杰里米&#183;华纳认为中国单凭人口众多这点,最终一定能超过美国,但他认为这是一段漫长艰辛的道路。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">关于美国和西方如何面对中国崛起,这位英国经济评论员提出一个更深层的问题:谋求在半途阻止中国经济进步是否合理?不让中国14亿人口有机会达到美国人的生活水平,道德上是否说得过去呢?</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如果回答是否定的,即认为不应该阻止中国经济进步,那么美国就不应该像今天白宫说的那样去遏制中国发展,而是要以互惠方式鼓励中国发展。杰里米&#183;华纳认为,即使遏制中国发展的确是特朗普的最终目标,那么美国现在的鲁莽行径并非是达到此目标的正确手段。</p></div></div>