<p style="padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; background-color: #ffffff;">中方反击势在必行，特朗普丝毫没有退缩，还把征税规模提升了一千亿美元。世界两大经济体互不退让，会启动什么效应?</p><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%88%98%E6%9E%AA%E5%93%8D-%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93/a-44548049?&zhongwen=simp#" link="/overlay/image/article/44548049/38392660" rel="nofollow" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none; cursor: pointer;"><img itemprop="image" src="https://www.dw.com/image/38392660_303.jpg" title="USA Donald Trump und Xi Jinping (picture alliance/AP Images/A. Brandon)" alt="USA Donald Trump und Xi Jinping (picture alliance/AP Images/A. Brandon)" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px; height: auto;" /></a><p style="padding: 4px 0px; color: #888888; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: 720px;"></p></div><div style="margin-bottom: 30px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #3e3e3e; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";"><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">(德国之声中文网) 7月6日凌晨12:01分，美国对中国开始课征关税，中国也确认还击。两大经济体之间的关税大战正式开始。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">第一波，美国对中国价值340亿美元、818项的进口商品课征25%关税。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">由于中国称“不会先于美国实施加征关税措施”，因此，比华府早12个小时进入7月6日的北京先是按兵不动，等到美国开始再实施。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">中国商务部发言人在7月6日表示，美国“发动了迄今为止经济史上规模最大的贸易战，这种征税行为是典型的贸易霸凌主义”。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">中国外交部也在当天表示，作为反击，北京也已经于凌晨12:01分开始对同样额度（340亿美元）的美国进口商品课征关税。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><span style="font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; color: #000000;">威胁升高?</span></p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">贸易战前一晚，特朗普在进入空军一号前对记者说:“两周内再课160亿，我们还有2千亿的额度。要是他们再回课2千亿，我们又还有差不多3千亿的筹码。懂了吗? 所以我们有5百加2千加3千左右。”</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">这与先前提出的数字有落差。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">6月18日，特朗普透过白宫做出声明，已指示贸易代表考虑对价值2千亿美元的中国进口商品加征额外关税，税率10%；如果中方因此再对美加征关税，美方则会对另外价值2千亿美元的商品征收额外关税，总额高达4.5千亿。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">特朗普的最新说法比之前的高出一千亿，几乎相当于去年自中国进口总额。</p><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";"><div style="width: 720px; float: left;"><div data-id="44253231" data-title="中美贸易战 与我有何干？" data-date="20180616" data-firstcategory="19990032" style="float: left; width: 700px; height: auto; margin: 0px 0px 30px; background-color: #000000; position: static !important;"><ul style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; list-style: none inside; overflow: hidden; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; position: relative; width: 700px; height: 571.42px;"><li style="background-image: url("../cssi/list-blip.png"); background-position: 1px 10px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; opacity: 1; min-height: 544px; display: block; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 7;"><div style="float: left; position: relative; width: 700px; height: 394px; overflow: hidden; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-color: #111111; clear: both; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 10; cursor: pointer;"><img itemprop="image" src="https://www.dw.com/image/42778858_303.jpg" title="Symbolfoto Internetkriminalität (picture-alliance/chromorange/C. Ohde)" alt="Symbolfoto Internetkriminalität (picture-alliance/chromorange/C. Ohde)" style="width: 700px;" /></div><div style="position: relative; left: 0px; bottom: 0px; z-index: 11; width: 700px; margin: 0px; padding: 15px; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; height: auto; min-height: 150px;"><div></div><h4>中美贸易战 与我有何干？</h4><h2>症结在于“中国制造2025”</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #bbbbbb; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: auto;">最令美国耿耿于怀的是，中国强迫在华外国企业（包括美国企业）交出先进技术，作为进入中国市场的前提条件。而北京倾国家之力推动的“中国制造2025”战略则是对美国在多个科技领域霸主地位的“赤裸裸”的挑战。</p></div></li></ul><br /><div style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; height: 40px;"><div style="position: relative; z-index: 100; left: 6px; bottom: 0px; width: 678.991px; overflow: hidden;"><div style="float: right;"><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") -80px -80px no-repeat;"></a><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") -120px -80px no-repeat;"></a><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") -160px -80px no-repeat;"></a><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") -200px -80px no-repeat;"></a></div><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") 0px -80px no-repeat;"></a><span style="width: 535px; display: block; overflow: hidden;"><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%88%98%E6%9E%AA%E5%93%8D-%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93/a-44548049?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p0" style="color: #ffffff; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">1</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%88%98%E6%9E%AA%E5%93%8D-%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93/a-44548049?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">2</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%88%98%E6%9E%AA%E5%93%8D-%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93/a-44548049?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p2" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">3</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%88%98%E6%9E%AA%E5%93%8D-%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93/a-44548049?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p3" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">4</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%88%98%E6%9E%AA%E5%93%8D-%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93/a-44548049?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p4" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">5</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%88%98%E6%9E%AA%E5%93%8D-%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93/a-44548049?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p5" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">6</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%88%98%E6%9E%AA%E5%93%8D-%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E6%88%98%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93/a-44548049?&zhongwen=simp#" id="p6" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">7</a></span></div></div></div></div></div><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><span style="font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; color: #000000;">关税之役连锁效应</span></p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">如果中美没有办法谈成共识，又互不妥协，以双方一报还一报的逻辑走下去，接下来可能会按照这个剧本发展:</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">1. 美国开启第一波关税，先向总价340亿美元、818项中国进口商品课征25%关税，包括航空航天、通信技术、汽车零件等。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">2. 中国对同等价值的美国进口商品征收等额关税，包括农产品、汽车等。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">3. 美国第二波关税包含284项、价值160亿美元，受益于中国制造2025产业政策的产品。 </p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">4. 中国展开报复</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">5. 美国先后对价值2千亿以及3千亿美元的中国商品加征关税</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">第一、二步已经在7月6日这天成真，但是之后的每一步都仍有变数。美国官员正在考虑第3步，2周内会有定案。后面的第4步与第5步都还没有确定的时间表。因此，上述纯粹是特朗普对于最坏情况的沙盘推演。但未来实际发展还有待观察。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;"><span style="font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; color: #000000;">关税以外的“武器”</span></p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">中国因为贸易出超，对美国进口商品课征关税的筹码较少。但是，除了关税，中国还有其他策略可以消耗美国战力。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">《华盛顿邮报》报道，中国警告要进行“质量型”报复措施，包括在海关、检疫和防火检查等监管措施方面刁难美国公司。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">这个说法不是没有凭据。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">五月初中美代表谈判时，中国将美国进口水果的<a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E4%BD%8E%E8%B0%83%E8%B0%88%E5%88%A4-%E9%94%80%E5%8D%8E%E6%B0%B4%E6%9E%9C%E5%85%88%E9%81%AD%E6%AE%83/a-43649456" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none;">检查时间拉长</a>，导致水果腐坏。政府迟迟没有批准芯片制造商高通 (Qualcomm)收购荷兰恩智浦半导体 (NXP Semiconductors)计画。法院又以侵犯版权为由，下令暂停美国半导体工厂美光（Micron）26种产品在华销售。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">虽然这些事件无法证明和中美贸易战有直接关系，但都被指为是中国面对冲突时的可能策略。</p></div></div>