<br /><p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">这次美国贸易战牵涉到许多国家和地区：中国，欧洲共同体，加拿大，墨西哥，日本，南韩等。主场当然是中美之间。这篇文章限于中美贸易战，但这里的原则在不同程度上适用于这场贸易战的其它战场。原来许多人（包括我）期望川普的关税只是用来解决贸易冲突的谈判砝码。但这个期望破灭，美国对中国的关税几天前开始生效，中国的报复关税也几乎同时生效。对此美国威胁将再加报复关税（好像是八月底实施）。中美贸易战已经正式开幕。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">现在要预言这次贸易战将来的发展和结局还为时过早。这场中美贸易战可以比喻为</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">“</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">慢动作虚拳击（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">slow shadow boxing</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">“</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。就是说会长时间慢动作，每一拳都有不讲明的目的。仅加税和报复就可能有几轮。除关税以外，中美都还有其它牌可打。考量和预言这场贸易战需要考虑背景条件和双方的对策。有些背景条件现在就已经确定，有一些条件将随事态的发展而定。中美双方的每一个决策也重要。中方的对策不容易预测，我们先考虑美方的可能策略。这里川普本人是关键。美国总统在历来战略决策中都重要。与议会民主制不同总统在总统制民主中可以有很大权力（议会民主制也称西敏制因为它是从英国起始而英国议会厅在西敏里）。一句形容议会制总理的英文很确切：</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">First among equals</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。就是说议会制中大家都是平等的，总理只不过是众内阁成员中的第一人。具体情况当然与首脑本人也有关系。从川普执政一年多的决策中可以看出他相当独断专行（但还不至于听不进他人的意见）。所以分析川普的战略战术及其</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS""> temperament</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（性格，本性）是考量中美贸易战的第一步。 </span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">像川普这样的总统在美国历史上很少出现，近百年从未有过。他意识形态理念不强（有人说他极右／远右；这不准确）但有相当强的民粹主义倾向。民粹主义是从英文</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">popularism</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">来的，我觉得民粹主义这词翻译的不太好。政治上有时会出现一种民意思潮，它不能清晰地归于某常见的意识形态但又不是一种新的意识形态。这种民意思潮被称为民粹主义。有一点很关键：民粹主义和民粹主义的领袖不一符合民众的长远利益（一般来说部分符合，部分不符合）。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">我先指出川普的几个特点。第一点，川普的行动很难预测（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">unpredictable</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）。竞选时川普被记者问及他的外交政策，他回答我不会让对手知道我的策略。我当时认为他不愿讲是为了蒙混过关。这一年多以来，他的策略确实很难估测。这样做有好处也有坏处。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">其次，他怀疑现有建制（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">anti-establishment</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）。这点大家应该知道，从他的竞选可以看出，这也是民粹主义常见的表现之一。但多数人（包括我）认为他执政后仍然会大体依靠建制因为他以前的执政经验为零，无论国家级还是州级。执政后川普的确不相信建制。例如美国国务院许多位置到现在还空置，不少还是很重要的职位。最近川金会谈时居然临时从美国驻菲律宾使馆紧急调来北韩问题专家；会谈前不久把原来预定派往澳洲的大使紧急换任驻南韩大使；等等。对以前美国总统来说这些是不可思议的。但似乎川普政府的政策</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">works</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（当然现在还没有具体证明；将来我再补充）。</span></span></p> <p><span><span> </span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">第三，不事先确定目的／结局（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">end game</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">），争取最佳结果。许多评论员批评川普没有计划好</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">end game</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。他们没有理解川普本来就没有计划</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">/</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">预料</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS""> end game</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。这是他的通常工作方式。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">第四，杰</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">·</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">布什（小布什总统的弟弟）很早就说过川普的管理方式是</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">chaos</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（混乱）。有时可以用混水摸鱼来形容他的策略。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">第五，川普常说他很会作交易（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">deal making</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）。不少政界学术界人士批评川普做法太</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS""> transactional </span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（过于交易性）。这与川普过去成功的经历有关。不同行业的成功方式可能非常不同。大家可能熟悉苹果的创始人</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Steve Jobs</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">，微软的创始人</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Bill Gates</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">，亚马逊的</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Jeff Bazos</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。他们属于成功创业型的企业家。另一类商界成功人士是投资银行家。现在的财政部长<span style="color:#333333;background:white;">史蒂文</span></span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#333333;background:white;">·</span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"; color:#333333;background:white;">马努钦就是</span></span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">投资银行家。以前共和党候选人罗姆尼也算投资银行家但与主流投资银行家还是有相当大的不同。川普属于成功的地产商，与大多数企业家很不相同。地产商基本属于交易性质，即</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">transactional</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。地产经纪人只看短期没有中长期的战略观念（通常买卖住房是通过房地产经纪人）。川普是地产开发商，与地产经纪人不同需要一些策略和长远眼光，但与前面提及的企业家和银行家还是大不一样。（顺便提一句，我刚看到一篇曾与川普有交往的著名建筑商的访谈</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">–</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">见文后链接</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">–</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">川普的人格的确不怎样；不过这与本文无直接联系。）</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">现在转到正题。我以前写过两篇相关文章</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">[1,2]</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">，现在仍然适用。刚看到一位悉尼大学教授写的一篇很不错的评论</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">[3]</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。这篇唯一不足的是较少考虑中美双方承受程度之差别。从某种角度上来说，中美双方在贸易上的冲突不可避免。实际上重商主义国家发展到一定程度会与主要进口国发生冲突。以前日本美国之间也曾有过严重贸易冲突。经济学家一般来说反对贸易战，因为公平（或接近公平）贸易对双方都有利。如果两国贸易的平台基本公平的话，即使有贸易赤字货币汇率，利率等会自动调整。问题是中美贸易从来不在公平交易平台上（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">level playing field</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）。美国的抱怨有下面几点：没有遵守进</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">WTO</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">时的诺言开放中国金融保险等市场，中国政府不管美国奢侈品假货泛滥，盗版好莱坞电影，盗窃美国技术秘密，要求在中国设厂的美国公司转移技术。事实基本如此。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">上面指出的各种问题其实大家都知道。问题是如何应对。大多数政界学术界人士的看法都是通过谈判和外交手段解决。但美国用这些办法处理中美贸易问题已经有近二十年了，几乎没有任何进展。有一部分人认为美国应该联合其它西方国家（它们对中国有和美国一样的抱怨）一起向中国施压。如果我是川普，我大概会采取这种办法而暂时搁置其它国家的贸易问题。因为对美国来说，无论从性质上还是从数量上来说中美贸易问题最大。川普采取的策略是全面开花，各国一起上。考虑上面提到的川普处理问题的方式，他这次贸易战的策略就比较容易理解了。川普把现有贸易秩序全部打乱（第四点），怀疑现有建制有存在的必要（第二点），不定结局（第三点），行动不好预测（第一点），然后从中作交易（第五点）。这是一场相当大的赌博。我个人不会建议这样作。是否会成功？现在很难预测。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">其它关于贸易战的评论和报道多如牛毛。我看到华盛顿邮报的几篇还可以</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">[4-6]</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。华盛顿邮报最近</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Larry Summers</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">的一篇专栏（应该基本上与华夏快递讨论的</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">CNBC</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">一篇类似观点）就相当一般了。要理解中美贸易争端的深层原因，需要先从战略大局考量。我写过三篇与此相关</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">[2,7,8]</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">[7]</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">中有一点有些读者可能不解：纽约时报一条消息</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">“</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">特朗普的贸易战豪赌：等待北京先让步</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">”</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">”</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">我想坏了，这下要逼急（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">corner</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）习近平了。</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">”</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">这其实与上面分析的川普决策方式有关。好的战略家会给对手一条路，特别这是贸易战不是对不共戴天的敌人的热战。另外习近平要求救活中兴，川普答应了，可能条件是习近平帮川普摆平金正恩</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">/</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">北朝鲜核武。这已经超出这篇范围。但北朝鲜核武可是比贸易战严重的多。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">将要投稿时，看到纽约时报一篇报道</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">[9]</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">。利用本篇介绍的分析方法可以更深刻地理解此文。</span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">注释：</span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">1</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）韩家亮：</span></span><a href="http://chinainperspective.com/ArtShow.aspx?AID=190502"><span><span style="color:#1155CC;background:white;">中美贸易冲突分析与展望</span></span></a><span> </span></p> <p><a href="http://chinainperspective.com/ArtShow.aspx?AID=190502"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">http://chinainperspective.com/ArtShow.aspx?AID=190502</span></span></a><span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">2</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）韩家亮：<span style="color:#333333">怎样理解中国的经济增长？</span></span></span></p> <p><a href="http://chinainperspective.com/ArtShow.aspx?AID=191628"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">http://chinainperspective.com/ArtShow.aspx?AID=191628</span></span></a><span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">3</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）</span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Salvatore Babones: Trump Is Right: The U.S. Can’t Lose a Trade War</span></span></span></p> <p><a href="http://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-right-us-can%E2%80%99t-lose-trade-war-25202"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">http://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-right-us-can%E2%80%99t-lose-trade-war-25202</span></span></a><span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">4</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）</span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Robert J. Samuelson: We’re going to lose this trade war </span></span></span></p> <p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/were-going-to-lose-this-trade-war/2018/06/24/ff8dfb70-763c-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ec4334dfb6b5&wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/were-going-to-lose-this-trade-war/2018/06/24/ff8dfb70-763c-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ec4334dfb6b5&wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1</span></span></a><span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">5</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）华盛顿邮报社论：</span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Trump is playing a risky game of chicken</span></span></span></p> <p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-playing-a-risky-game-of-chicken/2018/06/24/7ac18502-7645-11e8-9780-b1dd6a09b549_story.html?utm_term=.330ba73f5aa2&wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-playing-a-risky-game-of-chicken/2018/06/24/7ac18502-7645-11e8-9780-b1dd6a09b549_story.html?utm_term=.330ba73f5aa2&wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1</span></span></a><span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">6</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）华邮报道：</span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">Why nothing seems to be stopping Trump’s trade war? </span></span></span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/in-symbolic-rebuke-senate-votes-to-seek-congressional-role-in-president-trumps-tariff-decisions/2018/07/11/def7d556-851a-11e8-8553-a3ce89036c78_story.html?utm_term=.b2f36433833d&wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/in-symbolic-rebuke-senate-votes-to-seek-congressional-role-in-president-trumps-tariff-decisions/2018/07/11/def7d556-851a-11e8-8553-a3ce89036c78_story.html?utm_term=.b2f36433833d&wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1</span></span></a><span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">7</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）</span></span><a href="http://hx.cnd.org/2018/06/26/%e9%9f%a9%e5%ae%b6%e4%ba%ae%ef%bc%9a%e8%b4%b8%e6%98%93%e6%88%98%e6%98%af%e4%b8%ad%e7%be%8e%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb%e7%9a%84%e8%bd%ac%e6%8a%98%e7%82%b9%e5%90%97%ef%bc%9f/"><span><span style="color:purple;background:#EFEFEF">韩家亮：贸易战是中美关系的转折点吗？</span></span></a><span> </span><a href="http://hx.cnd.org/?p=155530"><span><span><span style="font-size:12.0pt; line-height:115%;font-family:"Georgia",serif;color:purple;background:white;">http://hx.cnd.org/?p=155530</span></span></span></a><span> </span></p> <p><a href="http://beijingspring.com/bj2/2010/300/625201863544.htm"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">http://beijingspring.com/bj2/2010/300/625201863544.htm</span></span></a><span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">8</span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）韩家亮：<span style="color:#333333">国际政治、核武器、北朝鲜 </span></span></span></span><a href="http://www.chinainperspective.com/ArtShow.aspx?AID=195498"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">http://www.chinainperspective.com/ArtShow.aspx?AID=195498</span></span></a><span><span> </span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">9</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）纽约时报：美财长称中美贸易谈判</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">“</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">破裂</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">”</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">，遭两党立法者质疑</span></span></p> <p><a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20180713/china-trade-war-mnuchin/"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20180713/china-trade-war-mnuchin/</span></span></a><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">相关链接：</span></span></p> <p><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">（</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">1</span></span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">）</span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS"">The famed architect Frank Gehry on the anti-globalization backlash </span></span></span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/07/11/frank-gehry/?utm_term=.f355e63d17cb&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/07/11/frank-gehry/?utm_term=.f355e63d17cb&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=</span></span></a><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/07/11/frank-gehry/?utm_term=.f355e63d17cb&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1"><span><span style="color:#1155CC">1</span></span></a><span></span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span> </span></p> <p> </p> <!–[if gte mso 10]> <![endif]–>