<br /><p style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong></span></p><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 25.6px;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 556.364px;vertical-align: top;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 556.364px;vertical-align: top;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: -10px;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 0px;transform: rotate(0deg);border-right: 5px solid #ffffff;border-bottom: 5px solid #ffffff;word-wrap: break-word !important;border-top: 5px solid transparent !important;border-left: 5px solid transparent !important;"></section></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 556.364px;vertical-align: top;border-width: 0px;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-left: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 540.369px;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed #a0a0a0;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><em>1.哈维尔领导的革命“如天鹅绒般平和柔滑”，因此而得名。齐奥塞斯库夫妇被枪决后，罗马尼亚立即废除了死刑。</em> </p><p style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><em>2.东欧国民对“乱糟糟的民主”看法与我们不同，他们承认议会政治有毛病，但一切矛盾可以公开，比起旧体制 “高度一致”、报喜不报忧的传统，他们认为这是一种进步。</em></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><em>3.谁都知道东欧的“天鹅绒革命”是千百万民众自发参与的结果，尽管他们对经济转轨没有足够的心理准备，尽管“剧变后没有实现他们的所有梦想”，他们有抱怨，有怀旧，但是鲜有要倒退回去的</em>意愿。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 15px;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 20px;padding-left: 20px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 1px;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.563013698630137" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-w="730" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeO21KXG71dJsZBezriaJITkcR8C7mqcEpnqB7BR00iaYRiay1OJlm954XQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeO21KXG71dJsZBezriaJITkcR8C7mqcEpnqB7BR00iaYRiay1OJlm954XQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span></p><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 25.6px;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 21px;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><br /></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.9;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.665625" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeC3VKicNOCVyzC9qZDmKy9rZHrBM4gJa2VgXdDutlZZ3dQ7oRS5qCXww/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeC3VKicNOCVyzC9qZDmKy9rZHrBM4gJa2VgXdDutlZZ3dQ7oRS5qCXww/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: #888888;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">金雁，中国政法大学教授，博士生导师，中苏（俄）、东欧研究领域领军人物。所著《倒转“红轮”》被列为“2012年度新浪十大好书”之首。</span></em></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 5px;border-style: solid;border-color: #433f3f;background-color: #3f3b3a;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;color: #ffffff;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;">听听东欧人对剧变的认识</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">会议组织者给我的题目是：“东欧道路”，其实现在既没有“东欧”的称呼，也没有“共同道路”的提法。比苏联剧变早两年的东欧，虽然目前与我们的国家关系还算正常，但是却显得比较隔膜。对于他们的经济转轨过程，我们一向偏重于负面报道，说东欧受西方“和平演变”的“忽悠”吃了大亏。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">剧变后的东欧，被我们形容为：“糟政府、烂社会、议会就像马戏团；分企业、卖银行、民族国家全卖光，到处是一派乱糟糟的无序民主”。在2008年金融危机时期，我们的报刊使用了“东欧陷落”、“东欧贫血症”、“东欧遭遇滑铁卢”等耸人听闻的字眼，甚至有些幸灾乐祸的心态，似乎是为了证明我们先经济改革而后政治体制改革的英明。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">20年前我是东欧剧变的“现场观察者”，20年后我又浮光掠影地感受了金融危机下的东欧，可以说在这方面有一定发言权。对于当下的东欧国家，尤其是波、捷、匈、斯这些已经入盟的国家，<span style="font-size: 16px;max-width: 100%;">凡是尊重客观事实的人，</span>都不得不承认：这些国家都已经毫无悬念地融入了老欧洲。<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">“身在庐山”之人，与山外之人的感觉是完全不同的，他们有牢骚、也有怀旧，认为新欧洲与老欧洲比仍有差距，但并没有对“天鹅绒革命”感到后悔</strong></span><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.6277372262773723" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="548" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeUXFsyr2ick9VYyFIiaJN14W4T9wZUIQmdKQGFM6l0xOqenLWhRG7Zg9A/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeUXFsyr2ick9VYyFIiaJN14W4T9wZUIQmdKQGFM6l0xOqenLWhRG7Zg9A/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.9;font-size: 12px;color: #b2b2b2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2011年12月23日，布拉格圣维特大教堂，民众瞻仰哈维尔的素棺</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">对于“乱糟糟的民主”，东欧诸国的国民看法与我们很不同，他们承认议会政治有毛病，但一切矛盾可以公开，这本身就是一种“常规化”的表现。比起旧体制 “高度一致”、报喜不报忧的传统，现在这种“乱糟糟”的局面无疑是一种进步。而且他们认为，民主从来就不能解决所有的问题，民主最大的贡献就是让社会各方面的利益群体在议会这个公共平台上按照一定的规则来博弈，大家都使明的不使暗的。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">在<span style="max-width: 100%;">这些国家的议会里，</span>常常可以看见议员们在打架，有人就说民主太乱了，其实这只不过是转型国家政治发展的必经的过程。更何况</span>公开的博弈形式哪怕再不雅观，也比任何秘密政治要好，因为<span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">阳光是最好的消毒剂，没有阳光的角落不知道会滋长出什么东西。朝鲜倒是挺一致的，但是没有一个东欧人愿意选择这样无选择的“一致”，</strong>否则极左派早已成为第一大党了。</span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">至于分企业、卖银行，只要分得公平、卖得透明，那就是工会和民众的自我选择，比过去苏式计划经济的强制性合作要强得多，也比该国共产党的黑箱操作、权钱交易强得多。卖掉，也许不一定是最佳方案，而且批评声音一直不断，但这是全民参与的博弈过程，配合气氛始终占主导，没有出现过倒退与动荡。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">东欧的民众说：“过去那种‘领袖们’向‘普通老百姓’指导应当如何生活的时代结束了，在20世纪，那些人打着‘帮助普通老百姓’的旗号，施行了最恶劣的专政。”这种家长式的管制方式，也许的确带来过“需要叩谢皇恩”的福利，但是这种福利并没有阻挡人们对自由的渴望。<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">谁都知道东欧的“天鹅绒革命”是千百万民众自发参与的结果，尽管他们对经济转轨没有足够的心理准备，尽管“剧变后没有实现他们的所有梦想”，他们有抱怨，有怀旧，但是鲜有要倒退回去的意愿。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.6593806921675774" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="549" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeQDy5QRibr7VMKxa46POozpeLaoCYO4mVavAl7lp7z14vPpjI04UicNUw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeQDy5QRibr7VMKxa46POozpeLaoCYO4mVavAl7lp7z14vPpjI04UicNUw/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.9;color: #b2b2b2;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">哈维尔领导的革命“如天鹅绒般平和柔滑”，因此而得名</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">总体来讲，1989年东欧民众反体制的四大基石：非苏化、私有化、非军事化、亲西方化，是有社会共识的，绝不是一时的心血来潮。20年的转轨，左右轮流坐庄，各轮了两三次，在这一点上没有动摇。也就是说，东欧人不喜欢被“代表”，他们的选举文化证明了自己对模式的偏好，这恐怕才是最真实的感受。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">我们喜欢说，“苏联解体之痛、东欧剧变之苦”。他们却说，苏联霸权是建立在我们小民族痛苦的基础上的，在他们不痛的时候我们痛，而他们痛的时候正是我们梦寐以求的目的，是我们的梦想。波兰统一工人党领导人拉科夫斯基谈到东欧的剧变时说，“因为这一制度里，既没有自由，也没有公正”。波兰前总统瓦文萨在接受《南方周末》访问时说，“我不反对社会民主主义，我反对的仅仅是苏联的共产主义，因为它是一种僵化的非人性的社会制度”。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">苏联模式在东欧是移植过来，从来没有在本民族扎根，</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">此后1956年的匈牙利事件、1968年的布拉格之春、1980年的团结工会都体现了这些民族的抗争。东欧各国内部本来就积蓄着长期的民主化冲动，它的民主化浪潮是自下而上推动的，所以有心理准备。与独联体国家“从天而降”的民主化完全不同，那些国家的情况是，突然有一天老大哥说，队伍解散了，你们自谋出路吧，于是政府稀里糊涂地披上了民主化的外衣，这种自上而下的民主化注定了它的空心化，后来出现的问题与此有直接的关系。</span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.8015122873345936" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="529" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeoHibVRsseU2hCOdfd9QqUic3hkqAfbRkDCuBm911nX0ohlHicgD9RSUbA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeoHibVRsseU2hCOdfd9QqUic3hkqAfbRkDCuBm911nX0ohlHicgD9RSUbA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.9;color: #b2b2b2;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">1969年初在布拉格广场自*焚抗议苏军入侵的两名年轻人</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 5px;border-style: solid;border-color: #433f3f;background-color: #3f3b3a;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;color: #ffffff;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;">社会共识是一种神奇的力量</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">如果谈到经验，要说有什么共性的话，那就是除了经济转轨适应具体环境要具体考虑外，东欧各国认为有几点很重要：社会共识，社会建构，人文精神。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">具有社会共识非常重要，而且具有凝聚力的社会共识的重要性怎么估量都不过分。有一个全民族认可的主流价值，直接影响着转型国家的社会发展目标和社会稳定。它是需要大智慧、大平台的，有共识国家就不会乱，有共识社会就不会散，有共识就有希望，而没有了这一点就容易形成社会动荡和黑社会的“丛林化”局面。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">东欧国家主流价值基本上有两个纬度：一个是和1945年以前的传统对接，一个是与母体的欧洲文化对接。他们提出的口号是建立 “共同的欧洲家园”，重返我们的“欧洲的价值”，剧变中提出的口号是“回到1947年以前去！回到1918年的第二共和国时期！回到欧洲阵营中去！”他们不承认1945年是真正的解放，认为那仅仅是更换了占领者，而1989年才是二战真正的结束。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">1990年12月在华沙贝尔维德宫举行的新波兰总统的就职仪式上，二战期间流亡伦敦总统卡乔罗夫斯基将波兰第二共和国国旗、宪法原件和总统印信交给了瓦文萨，表示了剧变后的政府与波兰民族“历史正硕”的合法继承关系，瓦文萨通过这个方式让剧变后的波兰历史与传统对接。东欧这些国家认为他们是小民族，而小民族有一种世界性、普适性，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">现在西欧是稳定的民主社会，在文化上与东欧又有一致性，向西靠的结果一定会强于原来在苏联体制下时的状况，欧盟成员国的身份不仅有安全保障，而且还有经济援助，促进所在国的议会民主和市场经济，何乐而不为呢？</strong>如果刻意绕开西方已有的经验，另辟蹊径的结果可能反而是一种新式的倒退。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2018/Aug/8222018POLAN.jpg" alt="" width="544" height="293" /><br /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.9;font-size: 12px;color: #b2b2b2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">1980年瓦文萨组织波兰工会罢工，要求言论自*由、释放政*治犯</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">其实这个主流文化是什么并不重要，重要的是社会共识，有了社会共识，再难的转轨也能度过，就像波兰在剧变之前，共产党执政时期，物价刚上涨两位数，就罢工不断；而团结工会时期，物价上涨达到2000%，大家也咬牙顶了过去。这就是社会共识的重要意义。建立社会共识要有一个智慧的团队，要有民众认可的本国历史的核心阶段，要有一个道德偶像的关键人物，比如马萨里克、纳吉等等。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">他们担心自己被留在这个“已被抹掉的地区”，生存环境毫无保障，东边的俄罗斯持有“核武器和能源”两大武器，随时都可以威胁到他们的利益，于是民众沿着历史惯性寻找新的安全保护伞，民众对加入北约的支持率和积极性之高超过政府。<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">东欧人对这次“回归欧洲”评价很高，把它并列在欧洲的五大重生之一</strong>：基督教使罗马重生；文艺复兴使希腊精神复活；宗教改革使督教重生；新教伦理和工业革命使欧洲重生；欧盟一体化使东欧国家重生，重新回到欧洲大家庭的队伍中。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">从1997年以来，欧盟委员会每年对入盟国家的评估涉及31个范围，指出他们距离入盟标准的差距和努力的方向，“给那些被排除在外的国家发出一种明确的信号，通过进行必要的变化，能够得到更多的回报”。对新欧洲国家来说，银行业的全球性流动已经形成，借贷方便多了，虽然欧盟对债务的规定有“赤字不超过GDP的3%，债务累计不超过GDP的60%”的政策限制，但是因为缺乏硬性制裁，有规定等于形同虚设，危机对政府造成的冲击远远大于百姓，因此民间感觉与政府不同。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.6087719298245614" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="570" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeBZZ8oJQxC2PjSPrhbRc8Em9vmS2fWLGEVjWAC1nUNoazpIIkVibO2Qw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeBZZ8oJQxC2PjSPrhbRc8Em9vmS2fWLGEVjWAC1nUNoazpIIkVibO2Qw/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.9;font-size: 12px;color: #b2b2b2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">1989年12月，布加勒斯特，民众声讨齐奥塞斯库的经济政策</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">反观俄罗斯就有很大的不同，混沌的“国家思想”使他们整合难度加大，在传统的意识形态跨掉以后，这个曾经“凭借思想联合起来的共同体”，至今没有形成自己的主流文化。自从经历了 “社会主义意识形态空场”以后，俄罗斯就面临国家认同和“国家思想”重建的迫切问题，俄罗斯各派政治力量先后提出过“主权民主、东正教精神、欧亚主义和帝国学说”等作为新的意识形态方案，但是因为缺乏共识，都没有坚持下来。由于摆脱不掉“前帝国”的惯性，现在俄国最大的问题是缺乏目的性明确的“社会战略”，整个俄国处在一种焦虑综合症的状态下，既有“身份认同”的焦虑，也有“向何处去”的选择焦虑、安全焦虑、整合焦虑与人口焦虑<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">所以俄罗斯处在一种摇摆当中，它直接影响到国家发展的均衡性和持续性。有人把这种状况归纳为“缺乏主导性特征”的“俄罗斯猜想”。说白了就是社会共识不足。归根结底一句话，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">有了社会共识再大的难关都能渡过，否则就会做成“夹生饭”。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 5px;border-style: solid;border-color: #433f3f;background-color: #3f3b3a;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;color: #ffffff;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;">千万不能忽视社会建构</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">第二条经验就是把“社会建构”放在重要的位置。有人说，新中国成立的60年是“前30年学苏联，后20年学美国的各种流派，现在正进入第三个阶段，学欧洲。学习欧洲的多层治理，学习欧洲的社会保障，学习欧洲的和谐与道义，学习欧洲的社会现代化”。不管这个说法准确与否，但转轨国家积累的社会转型经验值得借鉴。人们往往注意到政治制度和经济转轨这些显性的因素，而忽略社会建构，其实它的重要性一点也不亚于前者。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.5614366729678639" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="529" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIePMc3BJjW7qp4WWvfic7So5jkw1JJsgL0GNtpl34DGBcWCQCUpVCk6zQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIePMc3BJjW7qp4WWvfic7So5jkw1JJsgL0GNtpl34DGBcWCQCUpVCk6zQ/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: #888888;">处决齐奥塞斯库夫妇<span style="font-size: 12px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.9;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">后，罗马尼亚立即废除死刑</span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">东欧已经从“社会-国家一体化”的意识形态下脱离出来，从转轨初期的工会不像工会、政党不像政党、公益组织不像公益组织发展到现在明确的“三分天下”。<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">它改变了传统的治理模式，变“政治化的国家”为“社会化的国家”，使社会力量和政治制度之间的紧张关系变为相互依存的平衡关系，形成一种内在性的社会建构。</strong>在当今的社会，“国家无所不能”的时代结束，“强政府”时代结束，政府的频繁更换，使它从原来与国家重合的身份中剥离出来，入盟后更带来了“国家虚拟化”、“国家弱化”和“去权威化”的思潮，国家的控制能力和社会动员能力都大大减弱。要想不出现“丛林化”和“无序化”的局面，让各类自治类型组织填补政府所承担的功能非常重要。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">公民参与介入各种社会组织，调动全社会的力量解决社会保障和各类问题，最典型的是工会在转轨后得到重生。</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">工会经历组织碎片化过程后目前彻底转变，出现了工会多元主义。欧洲工会联合会要求，雇员少于50人的，没有工会代表的单位必须成立工人工作委员会。社会契约和三方机制协议在控制工作条件方面是有效的，值得我们借鉴。社会机制与社会组织发育相对良好，成为国家与民间之间的桥梁，能够在国家、市场和社会的三维体制中承担相当的责任。教会、NGO、行业协会、利益成员组织各司其责，即监督政府又制衡市场，各种利益可以在社会的平台上沟通，使政府养成在议论纷纷中执政的心态。</span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">剧变以后东欧国家的NGO都在呈几何数般地增长，且资金来源复杂化和价值取向个性化。国家政治之外的力量强大，社会团体有广阔的发展空间，它的自我建构、自我修复能力增强。<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">别看今天游行示威，明天政府危机，社会的弹性机制良好，决不是我们想象的天下大乱局面，形成了社会的有机性和天然层级结构。</strong>东欧的社会是一种复合性主体，每一个社会结构都是一个有机的生命体。由于自治社会存在，政治民主化的难度和风险要小得多。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.7063339731285988" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="521" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIekQdiaUIz6kcuicabt8wLyMp8bdQ6CrIgFkmIRGB18JOTmzy9tcx2pr3Q/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIekQdiaUIz6kcuicabt8wLyMp8bdQ6CrIgFkmIRGB18JOTmzy9tcx2pr3Q/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.9;font-size: 12px;color: #b2b2b2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">立陶宛维尔纽斯大学，欧洲最有影响力的大学之一，由教会创办</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">市政广场的作用远远不止在举行公共庆典，更何况他们的公共庆典都是政府出钱来调解社会矛盾的重要补充。在东欧“公共庆典是社会的润滑剂”，这是从希腊罗马延续下来的传统。比如在佛罗伦萨，1899年政府就举行过一次为期9天的谢罪游行，让民众发泄不满；美第奇家族经常在公共庆典上大摆筵席，这是争取市民最好的手段，他们为“自己的财富来源有一部分不正当所得而痛心”，希望通过慈善和谢罪来减轻负罪感；另外也颁布各种名目繁多的“禁奢法”。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">广场型文化，把广场作为民意的检测地，不但是娱乐和商业中心，而且是一个批评政府的地方、一个抗议的中心、一个民意的检验中心。它的开放性可以突破封闭状态，它的竞争性是个人展示的平台，它的创造性是人文和艺术大放异彩，增强凝聚力。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">与国家层面的政治冷漠相反，社会层面的直接民主大行其道是目前的一个特点，即政党衰落，社会组织兴起。</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">主要特点有：政党大多数党员对党内政治和决策的影响力十分有限，政党的代表性不足；党派制度的狭隘性和意识形态说教性过时；政党与政党的差异在逐步缩小，有趋同的倾向；政党改革的原始动力不足，党内的领导怕政党改革动摇自己的领导地位，政党内部交流很少，在政治活动中忽视了党员的利益，开始走下坡路。而社区中依靠民间自身的力量解决各种复杂的问题成为一种新气象。人们不再像过去一样靠参加某一个政党来表达自己的政治诉求，在多元文化环境中，单一的核心价值已丧失魅力。</span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">由于网络成为“沟通综合体”，“新的直接民主”成为可能。社会的内在动力强大弥补了政府撤出留下的位置。2010年4月10日“黑色星期六”是二战以来波兰高层精英损失最多的一次，但这没有引发波兰社会根本性的变化，社会秩序良好、股市上扬。这种自我修复能力以前所没有的。东欧国家都是小国，并不强大，但是它有一种内在的饱满和情绪上的舒缓。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.6652892561983471" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="484" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIehWemicgqLByPGzzMLialSVerSrTOHJps8zzStoBlpvO4Cyz58HLsEHeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIehWemicgqLByPGzzMLialSVerSrTOHJps8zzStoBlpvO4Cyz58HLsEHeQ/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.9;color: #b2b2b2;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">布拉格共产主义博物馆，门前俄罗斯套娃长着獠牙</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">反观俄罗斯，虚张声势的强大中有着脆弱的焦虑，俄国的强国家思维对社会结构的再造不利，长期以来被管制的社会是没有自愈能力的，社会的能动性很差，只有</span>索尔仁尼琴<span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">等人看到了“管制社会”放开以后带来的人的“自主意识”和“自我负责”的水平存在很大的难题<span style="max-width: 100%;">[千字君注：点击上图可购买</span>索尔仁尼琴《古拉格群岛》(精装，绝版）<span style="max-width: 100%;">]</span>。1993年11月索尔仁尼琴回国后号召人民参与并发展过去的地方自治运动，并定期出版《地方自治通报》，叶利钦于1996年夏天签署了地方自治法令，但是一直成效不显著。</span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2004年乌克兰颜色革命以后，俄罗斯又对NGO严加控制，制约了公民社会的发展，致使政府与社会呈现两种思维、两种话语。俄罗斯的NGO组织单一，主要集中在环保、慈善、残障方面，由于国家管制，它们在公信力、资源的使用方面都存在很大问题，这类政府操纵下的非政府组织只不过就是政府机关包装下的资源转换的机构罢了，都有浓重的政治色彩。<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">官方对它的态度十分功利，只想通过它们赈灾扶贫，吸引外资发展经济，而害怕它横向联系，在这种情况下社会团体只是一种垂直型的隶属结构，在社会建设中是以打压社会自主性为主的，导致社会越建越小。</strong>就如同没有臭氧层，阳光炙烤大地，而如果人们自主、自愿、自励、自律，从国家人变成社会人就不会出现这种局面。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 5px;border-style: solid;border-color: #433f3f;background-color: #3f3b3a;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;color: #ffffff;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;">对后工业化时代文明的思考</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">剧变后的东欧总体来说并不太富裕，民众满意度也不尽相同，但是却有一些值得我们深思的地方，比如在物质达到一定水平以后，鼓励人们多花点时间思考：什么是“较高的生活质量”？对人类而言什么是真正重要的事情？人类具有一些共同的原始点，在权力与市场的夹击下如何做到增进团结、消除矛盾、协调社会？怎样提升公共道德？</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.6703296703296703" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="546" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeaflNibNHtfNVl8n0sj0X2bibu6tBRrm7EzlYFrZDnYN6LgsAsgU3w1eA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; top: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; width: 677px !important; height: auto !important;" _width="677px" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/G9eianxZBic9YKnvL0XKgrxt4Wo1iaNKdIeaflNibNHtfNVl8n0sj0X2bibu6tBRrm7EzlYFrZDnYN6LgsAsgU3w1eA/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" alt="" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.9;font-size: 12px;color: #b2b2b2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">我相信你们让我担当此职，不是为了让我重复谎言……40年来，我们生活在道德被污染的环境中。——哈维尔1990年新年致辞</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">对文明的思考说来也简单，那就是重现“人文精神、人的自由发展和自然化的理论体系”，人不仅仅是物质的动物，它还追求意义，追求崇高，过度夸大和消费的带来的负面效应是：鼓励贪欲容易对人类价值形成误导；地球承载不了人类所有的欲望；罗马帝国的衰亡和中世纪黑死病都是对人类贪欲的惩罚。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">东欧经济发展速度虽快于老欧洲，慢于中国，但是比较悠闲和均衡。<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">很多人已经认识到，过去不惜一切代价追求国家强力，从人民剥夺财富、资源和自由来获取满足国家行为的现代化是错误的。</strong>而现在不惜一切代价追求经济增长的方式也将会被证明是错误的，它们的提法是，不拜倒在物质主义、经济主义和消费主义的大旗下，坚持超越的信念，保留人类的精神家园。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">东欧人喜欢用汤因比的一句话来形容苏联模式的垮台，“从文明衰落所造成的痛苦中学到的知识可能是人类进步最有效的工具”，而现在他们正在从摆脱旧模式造成的痛苦中来走向复兴。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: #888888;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">注：本文由金雁讲话整理，标题、图片、导语系千字君所加，转载请注明作者、出处及编者。</span></em></p>