<div style="font-family: Ubuntu, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="touch-action: manipulation; line-height: 32px;"><a target="_blank" href="http://s2.mingjingnews.com/#sina_weibo" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: transparent; color: #0a299c; text-decoration-line: none; float: left; line-height: 16px; padding: 0px 2px; cursor: pointer;"><span style="clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); clip-path: polygon(0px 0px, 0px 0px, 0px 0px); overflow: hidden; height: 1px; width: 1px; position: absolute !important;">Sina Weibo</span></a><div style="clear: both;"></div></div></div><div id="post-body-466417832111323025" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; margin: 0px; background-color: #ffffff;"><p> </p><p><br /></p><p> </p><p><img height="508" src="http://scd.cn.rfi.fr/sites/chinese.filesrfi/imagecache/rfi_16x9_1024_578/sites/images.rfi.fr/files/aef_image/xjp_10.jpg" width="900" style="max-width: 100%; height: inherit;" alt="" /></p><p> <em>【《內幕》編者按：文章為7月6日《中國研究院》第50次研討會，此次會議由陳小平主持，主題為中美貿易戰的走向，與會嘉賓有程曉農博士、經濟學者張艾枚、經濟學家呂樸、美國南卡羅萊納大學講座教授謝田、自媒體主持人秦偉平、歷史學家劉仲敬。本刊經授權，刊登這次訪談根據錄像整理的文字稿。】</em></p></div><div><p><br /></p><p>西方沒有問題，它是技術中心，只有它輸出，沒有它輸入的。它輸入的都是原材料，對它來說不算很重要。而中國處在世界邊緣地帶，這個中斷對它就是致命的。封鎖20至30年，中國就連越南都打不贏！因為越南在越南戰爭時期，得到的是蘇聯70年代的技術，打西方不行，但是打人民解放軍被蘇聯拋棄以後的50年代的技術，那是綽綽有餘的。在最好的情況下，中華人民共和國決裂以後，也會變成這種狀態。在最壞的情況下，它就像是不再能騎馬射箭的滿洲人一樣，被國內的被殖民者看破虛實以後，落到留在中原的滿洲人和蒙古人那種下場，淪為袁世凱，或者是唐繼堯、曾國藩這些人的征服對象了。</p><p>但是即使是這樣，它為什麼還要動作？這裡面是帶有一定的恐嚇性。例如，它做出那些宣傳性的動作，在很大程度上，不是針對西方的，而是針對國內的曾國藩和袁世凱的繼承者的。它想要像醇親王恐嚇袁世凱一樣，告訴他們，我們滿洲人仍然是像乾隆皇帝那時候一樣的牛逼，就算我們打不過歐洲人和日本人，打你們還是綽綽有餘的。但是實際上，他在當時已經不具備能，真正能夠壓制袁世凱的實力了。當然袁世凱也沒有這樣的把握，所以他撤袁世凱的職，袁世凱還是乖乖聽話了。直到保路運動興起，清軍被證明其實也不過這樣，然後袁世凱對他的忠誠就到頭了。</p><p>現在的中國共產黨，其實就處在這種狀態。它要想恢復到1950年代那種想殺誰就殺誰、想整誰就整誰的狀態，這是不可能的。但是它的潛在的競爭者，就具體說，就是改革開放以來成長起來的新地主、新資產階級，有沒有袁世凱的實力那麼強大，那還是有待於考量的事情的。真實情況比較可能處於兩者之間，所以雙方在未來的博弈中間，都會有相互試探的動作。這個相互試探的動作，一定要發展到雙方都能夠看出對方的真實實力以後，才能夠決出真正的勝負，才能夠排出誰能夠充當統治者。</p><p>這個過程是少不了要流血的。對於共產黨來說，它選出習近平這樣的人，也是不可避免的。因為它順著改革開放的道路要走下去，它就一步步地走進了西方擁抱熊貓派為它設計的道路去，這就意味著它會一點一點地變成國民黨，然後變成國民黨以後，國民黨的下場，大家都看到了。共產黨內，習近平在共產黨內的勢力並不是很大，但是不願意讓共產黨變成國民黨的勢力卻是非常大的。</p><p>如果習近平僅僅依靠他自己的勢力，他不足以做像他現在做的那些事情。但是不願意讓共產黨變成國民黨的勢力，這些巨大的勢力，除了擁戴習近平以外，確實沒有其他道路走。如果習近平不做他現在所做的所有的事情的話，那麼共產黨早晚要走上那條道路，所以他這麼做，至少是在權貴集團內部，也有相當的支持者。</p><p>但是他走到這一步，也已經是騎虎難下了。繼續走下去，最好的結局就是中華人民共和國被排除出西方國際體系以後，對方不用把你怎麼樣，僅僅是因為你自身的開發和發展能力低弱，你跟西方國家以及西方國家願意輸血的周邊國家的差距會不斷地拉大。</p><p>我們不要忘記1950年，蘇聯支持毛澤東趕走蔣介石的那個時代，台北還是個鄉下小鎮。上海市就算是不如東京和橫濱，也是比日本的絕大多數地區，比韓國全國，都要強出一大頭去的。你如果在1950年去了台北以後，你很可能會後悔不已，也許是回上海更好。然後30年以後，上海人如果能夠得到一個去日本的機會的話，就要覺得自己是祖宗積德了。為什麼？因為日本、韓國和台灣仍然在西方體系之內，能夠跟西方交流。就像是坐上了一輛公共汽車的乘客一樣，自己不用費勁，車往前移，你就跟著走。沒有跟西方交流，就像是沒有坐上公共汽車，而在底下走路。無論你走得有多累，你跟公共汽車上的乘客，那些坐在座位上的乘客之間的差距，是注定會越拉越大的。拉到一定程度，崩潰就是不可避免。但是這個對它來說，還不算是最壞的。</p><p>最壞的狀況，甚至是它可能不能，因為毛澤東當時，他擁有蘇聯剛給他輸入的全套幹部隊伍。這套幹部隊伍是外來的，他們跟本土社會的精英，就是毛澤東手下打倒的地主和資產階級的關係，就像是多爾袞和順治皇帝手下的那些滿洲將領，跟明朝那些官僚士大夫的關係一樣，沒有關係。你被我打倒了，我可以殺掉你，不殺你，就是讓你走運，你應該感恩戴德。他們什麼都會做。</p><p>習近平</p></div><a href="http://bravo.mingjingnews.com/2017/01/bravo.html" target="_blank" style="background: #ffffff; 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