<p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国国家统计局10月19日发表的数据显示,自今年以来,中国经济增速持续放缓,其中第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长率为6.5%,低于此前路透社预测的6.6%。同时,该增长率也是2008年全球金融危机以来中国最慢的季度增长率。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">统计局发表的数据称,中国前三季度国内生产总值为650899亿元,其中第一季度同比增长6.8%,第二季度增长6.7%,而第三季度增长6.5%。数据还显示,9月工厂产量增长低于预期,而10月零售销售则略高于预期。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国2018年的GDP增长目标为6.5%左右,尽管前三季度增速仍未低于目标值,但随着中美贸易战影响的逐渐展现,中国第四季度经济的增长可能面临更大压力。</p><h2>经济危机</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">凯源资本董事总经理陆修泉(Brock Silvers)告诉BBC中文,这一低增速符合外界的普遍预期。“中国对内投资也在降低,同时,债务仍然是一个巨大的风险,加上全球利率的上升,货币就贬值了。在某种程度上,中国鼓励货币贬值并以此来对抗美国加征的关税。因此,经济增速变缓并不意外。”</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">陆修泉认为,真正的问题是,中国增加流动性及基础设施支出的政策是否能成功将降幅降至最低,或者中国的宏观经济数据是否在某种程度上没有反应真实状况。</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-45821200" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">经济向好却股市下跌:美股“崩盘”原因与解读</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-45522113" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">“私企退场论”: 国进民退加剧 中国民企惶恐情绪蔓延</a></li></ul><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">今年9月,中国前央行行长周小川在接受CNBC采访时还表示,贸易战的负面影响不是很大,对中国GDP的影响不到0.5个百分点。但10月,国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告贸易战对中美两国乃至世界经济的长期负面影响时指出,贸易战对中国造成的损失将大于美国。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/F28C/production/_103929026_gettyimages-862982240.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/F28C/production/_103929026_gettyimages-862982240.jpg" alt="10月19日,中国国家统计局发布了中国第三季度经济增速。" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">10月19日,中国国家统计局发布了中国第三季度经济增速。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">多年来,中国一直在努力更多地依靠国内消费而不是出口来实现增长。中国在进行大量基建的同时也产生了大量的债务,因此中国政府一直在努力控制这些债务以及房地产泡沫对经济增长带来的影响。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">最近几个月,中国已采取一定措施支持经济发展,例如,7月,中国央行向国内金融体系注入了5020亿元人民币资金,以帮助提振日趋疲弱的经济。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">BBC亚洲商务记者瓦斯瓦尼(Karishma Vaswani)称,一位中国观察员近期告诉她,中国的选择并不多,因为中国负债非常高,也在试图管理自身经济的系统性风险,因此政策制定者不愿意像2008年之后那样采取措施刺激经济。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“北京正在两条战线上作战,所以他们能用的资源并没有那么充分。同时,中国的对手美国身上的不确定性及反复无常性也在日益增加。这些都不利于中国的经济前景。”瓦斯瓦尼说。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“除非与美国达成意外贸易协议,否则中国经济将迎来第四季度的萧条。北京现在最明智的选择可能是做出让步并与美国达成贸易协议,然后公开宣布获胜并转向更紧迫的经济问题。”陆修泉说。</p><h2>股市恐慌</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">与疲软的中国经济并行的,是不断下跌的中国股市。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国信达证券研发中心近期发布的报告显示,2018年初至今,全球主要股指下跌幅度最大的为深证成指,其次为上证综指,跌幅分别超30%和20%,并且2018年全部A股上涨个股数量创新低,仅有6.86%的个股保持上涨。报告分析,中国国内金融区杠杆带来的流动性紧缩是影响股市市场信心的内因。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/0C14/production/_103929030_gettyimages-1052168530.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0C14/production/_103929030_gettyimages-1052168530.jpg" alt="当前中国股市估值已处于历史较低水平。" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">当前中国股市估值已处于历史较低水平。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">在中国国家统计局发表数据的同一天,中国国务院副总理刘鹤接受中国央媒采访时表示,中国股市出现明显波动和下滑是由诸多因素造成的。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“中美贸易摩擦对市场也造成了影响,但坦率地说,心理影响大于实际影响,目前中美正在接触。”刘鹤称。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">对于近期蔓延的“私营经济退出论”的恐慌,刘鹤也做了回应,称“民营经济在整个经济体系中具有重要地位,贡献了50%以上的税收,60%以上的GDP,70%以上的技术创新,80%以上的城镇劳动就业,90%以上的新增就业和企业数量。如果没有民营企业的发展,就没有整个经济的稳定发展。”</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">对于刘鹤的此番发言,有微博网友评论称,“口惠而实不至”。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">除了刘鹤,中国央行行长易纲、银保监会主席郭树清和证监会主席刘士余也在同一天就A股发声,暗示A股应该可以表现得更好,试图“稳定军心”。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">易纲称,当前中国股市估值已处于历史较低水平,与中国稳中向好的经济基本面形成反差。刘士余则暗示,A股将引来更多入市资金,因为中国会“鼓励私募股权基金通过参与非公开发行、协议转让、大宗交易等方式,购买已上市公司股票,参与上市公司并购重组”。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">对位三位的喊话,网友并不买账。有网友评论称,“没有具体政策刺激的话,光力挺该垮一样要垮”。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">还有网友称,“搞得一地鸡毛,形象崩塌,诚信缺失,现在喊话有什么用?”</p>