<p style="padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; background-color: #ffffff;">习近平近日在中国南部的视察访问，让许多人联想起邓小平当年的"南巡"。在六四之后保守派气势高涨的背景下，邓的南巡被视为为继续"改革开放"定下基调。而北京政治观察人士白信认为，26年后习近平的"南巡"却可能为这一政策的敲响丧钟。</p><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" link="/overlay/image/article/46052910/45993153" rel="nofollow" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none; cursor: pointer;"><img itemprop="image" src="https://www.dw.com/image/45993153_303.jpg" title="Eröffnung Hongkong-Zhuhai-Macao-Brücke Xi Jingping (picture alliance/AP Photo/A. Wong)" alt="Eröffnung Hongkong-Zhuhai-Macao-Brücke Xi Jingping (picture alliance/AP Photo/A. Wong)" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px; height: auto;" /></a><p style="padding: 4px 0px; color: #888888; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: 720px;">资料图片：习近平在港珠澳大桥开通仪式上</p></div><div style="margin-bottom: 30px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #3e3e3e; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";"><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">（德国之声中文网）在一个关键的历史时刻，习近平结束了南巡。虽然他在此行说了很多次坚持改革开放、深化改革开放，但是，似乎除了重复这些口号，几无新意，与公众对他此行的期待存在一个巨大的落差，习近平仿佛陷入了某种失语状态。种种迹象显示，这种失语要么意味着十九届四中全会前夕北京形势微妙，习近平似乎陷入了空前复杂的权力挑战格局，要么意味着习氏执政活力趋近穷尽，未来的长期政治停滞正在到来。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">与历次出访、调查有很大不同，习的此次南巡行程覆盖深港澳和珠三角，也深入到粤北的清远，但是媒体每天跟踪报道只有一些语录式的零星片语，连一篇完整的讲话都没有，这和习过去六年动辄长篇大论的作风大相径庭。在改革开放四十周年之际，也是北京宣传部门大力鼓噪宣传的年份，他如此错失一个公开讲话的良机，阐述他不断重复的改革开放，实在令人百生疑窦。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">即使在<a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E6%B8%AF%E7%8F%A0%E6%BE%B3%E5%A4%A7%E6%A1%A5%E5%BC%80%E5%B9%95-%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E7%94%A8%E6%84%8F%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95/a-45993021" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none;">港珠澳大桥通车典礼</a>上， 习也只是匆匆宣布通车，而没有预期中的对大桥通车意义特别是香港公众所期待的大湾区一体化做一个政策说明。大桥通车原本就在香港引发不少疑虑，公众还没有从稍早的高铁通车带来的一地两检冲击中回复过来，对大湾区一体化进程存在各种担心，对习近平的南巡充满期待。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">毕竟，香港在未来的发展，不仅有关香港在大湾区一体化、以及与内地的经济关联，也涉及这个东方之珠在南海经济圈和"一带一路"中的定位，已非香港自身能够决定，而需中央政府的定义。值<a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E5%9B%9B%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%88%98%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E6%B5%8B%E8%AF%95/a-46037823" style="color: #0087eb; text-decoration-line: none;">中国改革开放四十周年</a>之际，习近平的历史性南巡却未较邓小平1992年南巡至深圳更向南延伸、甚至影响香港。不但对香港未来不置一词，更无香港公众期待中的蓝图规划。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">同样诡异的，习近平访深期间，还避开了招商局和招商局内的改革开放纪念馆，而且，全程未提邓小平 ；也未参观深圳的高科技、互联网企业，这些大湾区一体化的创新龙头企业，颇令人寻味。或者只是为了有意避开中美贸易战中的争议性企业？</p><div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei";"><div style="width: 720px; float: left;"><div data-id="46004610" data-title="香港—澳门—珠海：世界最长跨海大桥" data-date="20181023" data-firstcategory="19990021" style="float: left; width: 700px; height: auto; margin: 0px 0px 30px; background-color: #000000; position: static !important;"><ul style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; list-style: none inside; overflow: hidden; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; position: relative; width: 700px; height: 543.991px;"><li style="background-image: url("../cssi/list-blip.png"); background-position: 1px 10px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; opacity: 1; min-height: 544px; display: block; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 9;"><div style="float: left; position: relative; width: 700px; height: 394px; overflow: hidden; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-color: #111111; clear: both; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 10; cursor: pointer;"><img itemprop="image" src="https://www.dw.com/image/45981394_303.jpg" title="Am Rande der Hongkong-Zhuhai-Macao-Brücke wurde eine Insel inklusive Rastplatz geschaffen. (Foto: picture alliance/Zumapress)" alt="Am Rande der Hongkong-Zhuhai-Macao-Brücke wurde eine Insel inklusive Rastplatz geschaffen. (Foto: picture alliance/Zumapress)" style="width: 700px;" /></div><div style="position: relative; left: 0px; bottom: 0px; z-index: 11; width: 700px; margin: 0px; padding: 15px; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; height: auto; min-height: 150px;"><div></div><h4>香港—澳门—珠海：世界最长跨海大桥</h4><h2>水上休息区</h2><p style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #bbbbbb; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; width: auto;">在香港的这个人工岛屿上，车辆可以进入海下。此外，汽车和卡车司机也可以在岛上停下来休息。估计这里每天的汽车流量可达到6万，人员流量可高达25万。</p></div></li></ul><br /><div style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; height: 40px;"><div style="position: relative; z-index: 100; left: 6px; bottom: 0px; width: 678.991px; overflow: hidden;"><div style="float: right;"><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") -80px -80px no-repeat;"></a><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") -120px -80px no-repeat;"></a><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") -160px -80px no-repeat;"></a><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") -200px -80px no-repeat;"></a></div><a rel="nofollow" style="color: #888888; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif; display: block; float: left; width: 16px; height: 12px; background: url("../cssi/icons-pagination.png") 0px -80px no-repeat;"></a><span style="width: 535px; display: block; overflow: hidden;"><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" id="p0" style="color: #ffffff; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">1</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" id="p1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">2</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" id="p2" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">3</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" id="p3" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">4</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" id="p4" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">5</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" id="p5" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">6</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" id="p6" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">7</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" id="p7" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">8</a><a href="https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%A2%E5%BA%A7%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E5%8D%97%E5%B7%A1%E5%A4%B1%E8%AF%AD-%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%88%E7%BB%93/a-46052910#" id="p8" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding: 4px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei", sans-serif;">9</a></span></div></div></div></div></div><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">类似的，他在广东其他地方的视察中，虽然只言片语间都有应对时下民营经济的恐慌等等，但是除了坚持、推进、深化改革开放等等简单口号，再无进一步阐述，毫无新意，陷入了一种失语状态。显然，这和1992年邓小平南巡时借用左右意识形态争论制造的突破情势不同，对今天自命"定于一尊"的国家领袖来说，如此简单敷衍的应对不足以满足公众的巨大期待，也与一位领袖必须承担的政治责任很不相称。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">这就让外界不得不怀疑习近平在北京是否陷入了某种权力斗争的胶着状态。迟迟不宣布召开四中全会本身，就已经表明中央并未形成共识，习近平或许正在承受各种潜在的压力，上述表态甚至南巡本身都有些身不由衷。也就是说，他虽然说了很多次继续、坚持改革开放，但是并未对如何深化和坚持改革开放做清晰构想，此次南巡很大程度上只是一个姿态性的举动。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: "MS Song", "MS Hei"; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px;">换言之，从习近平对改革开放的口号式、机械式重复而缺乏内涵与展开的话语模式中，似乎可以看出他的心态封闭。过去六年的新毛主义话语似乎在当前错综复杂的历史性挑战面前陷入了内卷化的贫困，难以产出有新意、有创意、有信心的话语和政策，而话语和理论内卷化往往是内心封闭的结果，在一年来党内外的批评和来自美国的现实压力下，他似乎感受到了严重挫折，正在回归福建执政期间所显露的羞于社交的自闭心理。而若此种情形长期持续下去，中美贸易战的僵局恐怕也要持续，而这并不是最危险的。如果高层政治话语和心态陷入如此内卷化和封闭，那几乎就意味着苏联帝国勃涅日列夫时代的重现，也就是一个长期停滞的僵化政治时代。当然，这就是改革开放的终结。</p></div></div>