<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">中期选举是在什么时候？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">2018年11月6日。叫上朋友一起去。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">会涉及华盛顿哪些层面？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">435个众议院席位和33个参议院席位。</div><div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">值得关注的事项包括：国会两院将由哪个政党控制，并获得对特朗普总统及其政府的监督权。（提示：如果有机会，民主党人将比共和党人更积极地<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/03/us/politics/democrats-trump-impeachment.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/03/us/politics/democrats-trump-impeachment.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">展开调查</a>）此外，选民一般都会获得“I Voted”（我投票了）贴纸，</span>那是经常能引起周围人欢呼的东西。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">不妨了解一下：众议院议席每两年选一次。由于参议员的任期为六年，且是错开的，所以今年秋天有33个州要选参议员。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">华盛顿以外的地方呢?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">6665个州职位和成千上万个地方职位。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">别忘了还要选州长、州立法席位和其他众多非联邦机构的职位，包括市级。今年有36个州将选出新的州长。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">谁会赢得众议院?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">肯定是民主党。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">或者共和党。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">反正是其中一个。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大家一直在谈论所谓的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/19/upshot/democrats-midterm-elections.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">“蓝色浪潮”</a>，让民主党拿下参众两院的多数席位。有可信的迹象表明，民主党今年<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/25/us/politics/midterm-primaries-voter-turnout.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">充满活力</a>。但强劲的经济，以及特朗普的贸易保护举措，将激励大量的共和党人出来投票。所以，难以保证哪个党将大胜——只会有很多势均力敌的竞争。看看那些<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">民调结果</a>，作出自己的判断。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">如果民主党拿下众议院，会带来什么？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">政治上：展开调查，高声演说<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">，也许还会启动<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/us/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats-north-carolina.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">弹劾程序</a>。立法上：恐怕难有成就，回归到分裂政府状态。民主党人会认为这是一个重大的进展。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">如果共和党守住了众议院，会发生什么？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">政治上：华盛顿的一党统治进一步加强，特朗普可能更加为所欲为，几乎可以肯定不会遭到弹劾。立法上：更多的放松管制，也许还有更多的减税，也许还会进行<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/politics/obamacare-repeal-vote.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/politics/obamacare-repeal-vote.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">废除《合理医疗费用法案》(Affordable Care Act)</a>的又一次尝试。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">民主党需要</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">夺过</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">多少席位，才能在众议院成为多数党？</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">23席。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">他们要如何实现这个目标？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">先得拿下希拉里·克林顿在2016年所赢选区的23个共和党席位当中的一部分。</div> <div style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; width: 37.875rem; min-height: 1px; padding-right: 0.9375rem; padding-left: 0.9375rem; flex: 0 0 auto; max-width: 37.875rem; margin-left: calc((100% – 606px) / 2); font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333;">但民主党在数十个选区看到了明确的机会，从多元的都市区到郊区（这里许多受过大学教育的选民看不起特朗普），到一些农村席位。我们在这里建了一个众议院争夺<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">战的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/19/us/politics/midterm-elections-congressional-districts.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/19/us/politics/midterm-elections-congressional-districts.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">战场指南</a>。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">有多少美国人生活在竞争激烈的国会选区?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333;">5000多万。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333;">在众议院的435个席位中，大约75个竞争激烈。每个选区大约有70万人。所以，在竞争激烈的选区，有超过5000万人。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">哪些州的众议院之争最激烈?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333;">这30个州。</div><div></div></div></div><div> </div><div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">各地都存在十分关键的争夺：加州、东北部（宾夕法尼亚、纽约、新泽西）、中西部（艾奥瓦、伊利诺伊、明尼苏达），甚至是传统的共和党据点，如德州<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">。我们在<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/house-race-ratings.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">跟进</a>那些竞争最为激烈的州。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">我的投票重要吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">重要。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我的意思是，当然，在特定的选举中，你的那一票不太可能决定胜负。但这<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/us/virginia-tie.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/us/virginia-tie.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">并非不可能</a>！而且，即使在超过一票决定的选举中，整个过程也具有公民意义。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">此外，中期选举的投票率一般低于总统选举。所以这是反对派人士打破统计预期的好机会，如果这是你感兴趣的目标的话。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">我可以提前投票吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">这取决于你住在哪里。在一些州，提前投票已经开始了。这是一篇<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/04/us/politics/early-vote-elections.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/04/us/politics/early-vote-elections.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">很好的总结</a>。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">我</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">最</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">晚</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">可以什么时候</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">注册？我去哪里投票？</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">每个州规定不同。<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.usa.gov/election-day#item-37327" title="Link: https://www.usa.gov/election-day#item-37327" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">这个页面</a>是个有用的指南。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">我的投票安全吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/02/us/politics/russia-election-security-midterm.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/02/us/politics/russia-election-security-midterm.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">可能吧</a>。<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/31/us/politics/election-security-bill.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">也许</a>。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">但实际上：有关选票公正性的保护正面临严重质疑。而且，与以往一样，白宫是一个不可知因素<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">。特朗普总统经常质疑情报界对俄罗斯干涉2016年大选的共识，他已签署了一项惩罚外国干预的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/us/politics/trump-sanctions-election-interference.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/us/politics/trump-sanctions-election-interference.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">行政命令</a>，但两党的立法者<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/12/us/politics/trump-executive-order-election-interference-senate.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">一直在推动</a></span>更剧烈的措施。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我们在<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/20/us/politics/russia-interference-election-trump-clinton.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/20/us/politics/russia-interference-election-trump-clinton.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">这里</a></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/20/us/politics/russia-trump-election-timeline.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">这里</a>详细拆解了我们对俄罗斯一事的了解</span>。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">社交媒体在这次中期选举中起什么作用？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">作用很大。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">Facebook、Twitter和Snapchat等平台的重要性对竞选活动来说不是什么新鲜事，但政治人物从未有过如此多绕开传统媒体的选项<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">。一个至关重要的例子：候选人们的目标是制作<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/10/us/politics/midterm-primaries-advertising.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/10/us/politics/midterm-primaries-advertising.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">下一个病毒式传播视频</a></span>，将其作为昂贵的电视广告的代理，并经常大量依赖社交媒体来分享信息。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">Facebook</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">有采取什么不同的措施吗</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">？</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">有鉴于大规模数据泄露和（真正的）虚假新闻<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">，Facebook自2016年以来<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/17/us/politics/cambridge-analytica-trump-campaign.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/17/us/politics/cambridge-analytica-trump-campaign.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">表现不佳</a></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">。除了用无处不在的广告<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4zd7X98eOs" title="Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4zd7X98eOs" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">模糊地道歉</a>之外，该公司已表示</span>正在全力应对这两方面的问题，但我们已经看到影响竞选活动的威胁在2018年是非常真切的。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">该公司提到了外界试图影响中期选举的尝试，其策略与2016年俄罗斯的情况非常相似。正如我的同事凯文·鲁斯(Kevin Roose)最近所写的那样，Facebook面临的众多挑战之一是“区分真实用户发出的普通咆哮和愤怒与国家支持的左右舆论企图”。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">特别法律顾问调查会如何影响中期选举？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">很难说。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">迄今为止，很多民主党候选人在很大程度上回避了俄罗斯事件，他们更愿意谈论国内事务。但从政治角度上来说，距11月6日仍然有很长一段时间，由特别检察官罗伯特·S·穆勒三世(Robert S. Mueller III)领导的调查（或其他对总统及其身边人的调查）取得的重大突破，可能会成为“十月惊喜”。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">何种政策讨论主导了竞选？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">医保普遍是一个大问题，争论有两条主线：民主党人和共和党人之间就《合理医疗费用法案》的功过（仍在进行的）讨论，以及民主党人和民主党人之间关于全民联邦医疗保险(Medicare)是否是长期对策的讨论。其他议题有：移民、教育和控枪。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">民主党也有机会拿下参议院吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">当然，但有很长一段路要走。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">2016年特朗普获胜的州中——其中有一些州是大胜——有10名民主党人正竞选连任。相比来看，民主党只在少数几个州有切实的机会，因此他们几乎没有犯错的余地，而共和党人已经占据了微弱的多数。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">民主党必须赢下共和党控制的哪几个席位</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">才能</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">有机会夺取参议院？</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">内华达州、亚利桑那州和田纳西州。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">德克萨斯州也处在关注之下，众议员贝托·欧洛克(Beto O’Rourke)与参议员特德·克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)进行了激烈竞争——后者是民主党人乐于去深恶痛绝的人。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">如果众议院与参议院分裂，任何重大立法在两年内通过的几率是多少？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">非常非常非常非常非常小！</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">什么样的共和党人通过了初选？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">那些看起来最像特朗普的人。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">他们在共和党初选中做得很好，经常得到总统本人的背书。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">含蓄是个很稀罕的东西了，尤其是在竞选广告中。在佛罗里达州，罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">成功得到州长竞选提名的过程中，他年幼的孩子<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/us/politics/ron-desantis-bio-facts.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">一度</a>穿起了</span>“让美国恢复伟大荣光”(Make America Great Again)的连体衣。在佐治亚州共和党州长候选人布莱恩·坎普(Brian Kemp)的另一则广告中，他坐在一辆卡车里，承诺“如果需要我亲手把作奸犯科的非法移民抓起来送回家”，他会去做。但大选中的选民真的想要更多的特朗普主义吗？我们拭目以待。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">这真的是“女性之年”吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">看起来无疑是这样的。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">今年秋天有创纪录的257名女性参加众议院和参议院竞选，赢得众议院初选的女性达到235名，为本国有史以来最多的一次。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">女性在州长职位的初选中也打破了记录，女性对女性的竞争比以往任何时候都多。在许多激烈的竞争中，女性已经从充斥着男性的初选人海中脱颖而出。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">尽管女性被提名人数创历史新高，距离国会实现和国家人口一致的男女比例还很遥远。今年的许多女性候选人都是在竞争激烈的地区与男性竞争，或者与男性在任者竞争时机会不大。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">有哪些候选人让民主党人感到激动？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">民主党的未来似乎是年轻、进步和极为多元化的——从民主社会主义者、纽约初选中击败了现任众议员的<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/27/nyregion/alexandria-ocasio-cortez.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/27/nyregion/alexandria-ocasio-cortez.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a>)，到民主党佛罗里达州长提名人安德鲁·吉勒姆(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/us/politics/andrew-gillum-florida-governor.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Andrew Gillum</a>)，乃至正努力在乔治亚州的竞选中成为美国第一位非裔女性州长的斯泰西·阿布拉姆(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/22/us/politics/georgia-primary-abrams-results.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Stacey Abrams</a>)。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">有哪些候选人让共和党人感到激动？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">民主党参议员们对10个特朗普获胜选区的重选感到紧张。其中有：共和党人在密苏里州能看到一些优势，那里的<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">民主党参议员克莱尔·麦卡斯基尔(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/18/us/politics/mccaskill-missouri-midterms.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Claire McCaskill</a>)正在努力击退38岁的州检察长乔希·霍利(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/13/us/politics/josh-hawley-missouri-senate.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Josh Hawley</a>)。佛罗里达州的情况也是如此，比尔·尼尔逊(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/06/us/florida-bill-nelson-rick-scott.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Bill Nelson</a>)将对阵州长里克·斯科特(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/09/us/florida-rick-scott-senate.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/09/us/florida-rick-scott-senate.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Rick Scott</a>)，后者是一名富有的商人。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">谁能在今年创造历史？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">有很多人。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/us/politics/andrew-gillum-florida-governor.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/us/politics/andrew-gillum-florida-governor.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">安德鲁·吉勒姆</a>将是第一位领导自己所在州的非裔美国人。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/22/us/politics/georgia-primary-abrams-results.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/22/us/politics/georgia-primary-abrams-results.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">斯泰西·阿布拉姆</a>将是首位领导一个州的非裔美国女性。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">田纳西州有一个空缺的参议员席位，共和党提名人、众议员玛莎·布莱克本(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/09/us/politics/blackburn-abortion-tennessee-senate.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/09/us/politics/blackburn-abortion-tennessee-senate.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Marsha Blackburn</a>)可能成为该州首位女性参议员。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在佛蒙特州，民主党人克里斯蒂娜·哈尔奎斯特(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/us/politics/christine-hallquist-vermont.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Christine Hallquist</a>)是有史以来首位成为主要党派州长提名人的跨性别候选人。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">密歇根州的拉希达·塔利布(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/08/us/politics/rashida-tlaib-congress-muslim.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Rashida Tlaib</a>)和明尼苏达州的伊尔汗·奥马尔(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/us/politics/primary-results-minnesota-wisconsin.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Ilhan Omar</a>)都在谋求众议院席位，二人都将成为国会首度出现穆斯林美国女性。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">科罗拉多州的贾里德·波利斯<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/22/us/colorado-governor-race.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Jared Polis</a>)将成为首位当选州长</span>的已出柜男同性恋者。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">各种丑闻影响到众议院的竞选形势了吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">这个嘛……</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">两名来自绝对红色选区的共和党国会议员——纽约的克里斯·柯林斯(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/11/nyregion/chris-collins-new-york.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/11/nyregion/chris-collins-new-york.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Chris Collins</a>)与加利福尼亚州的邓肯·亨特(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/26/us/duncan-hunter-corruption-scandal.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Duncan Hunter</a>)近期遭到起诉。包括总统在内的共和党人如今都表达了对于丢掉这些席位的担忧。由于是司法部决定在如此临近11月的时候提起诉讼的，特朗普把责任归咎于司法部长杰夫·塞申斯(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/03/us/politics/trump-sessions-midterms.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">Jeff Sessions</a>)。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">总统以政治理由为那些被控犯罪的人辩护，这常见吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">不常见。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">选举日那天，华盛顿哪些权势人士会</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">遭受最大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">损失？</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">如果民主党人不能拿下众议院，很难想象南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)在众议院民主党领袖位子上还能坐多久。如果共和党人阴差阳错丢掉了参议院，他们的多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)很可能不会喜欢过重新成为少数党的日子。例如，如果没有50个共和党人的投票，确认另一位保守派最高法院大法官将会很难。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">有哪些值得关注的选票提案吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">有好几个！</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其中有：几个保守州——犹他、内布拉斯加、爱达荷——将考虑<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/09/us/politics/utah-medicaid-expansion.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">扩大联邦医疗补助的提案</a>，支持者们希望能击败曾经从立法方面阻止这种努力的保守派议员。一些西部州的创制权投票涉及能源定价——包括加州一个关于<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/02/us/california-ballot-initiatives.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">州汽油税</a>、华盛顿州一个关于<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_Initiative_1631,_Carbon_Emissions_Fee_Measure_(2018)" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">碳排放</a>的创制权投票。此外，在佛罗里达州，一个备受关注的举措将恢复那些服过刑的</span>重罪犯<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/magazine/ex-felons-voting-rights-florida.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">投票权</a>。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">中期选举只是一个对特朗普的公投吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">基本上是，但也不全是。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">地方问题永远是重要的，有时候关系重大。此外，共和党国会的政策——例如税改及废除医保的努力——对许多选民来说可能是强有力的动力，而他们投票的理由可能与特朗普本身没什么关系。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">对共和党候选人来说，特朗普能带来好处还是一个负累？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">这就像房地产市场：重要的是位置、位置和位置。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">总的来说，在他受欢迎的地方，总统是很有用的，在不受欢迎的地方没那么有用。（很令人震惊，没错。）但全国各地的许多共和党人都很欢迎他的帮忙。2016年，特朗普嘲笑过特德·克鲁兹的妻子、父亲及他的信仰。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">如今，面临着一场艰难重选的克鲁兹计划让特朗普成为德克萨斯州一场集会的中心。</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">我能相信民调吗？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">可以，也不可以！</div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">总的来说，民调更多的是对选民和议题的揭示，而不是对选举日的精确预测<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">。今年，许多预测暗示民主党夺回众议院的几率大于50%。但没人能保证结果一定如此。关于我们不知道（也不能）确定的事情，《纽约时报》“结语”(Upshot)栏目的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #326891;">实时民调项目</a>是一个兼具令人信服的数据和极度诚实的绝佳例子。</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">OK，中期选举结束了，然后呢？</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin: 0px 0px 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">开心、解脱、绝望。而且基本上2020年总统大选紧接着就开始了。</div> </div>