“天河工程”還有水可調嗎？ – 纵览中国-China In Perspective

近來，一個叫“天河工程”的國家重點研發項目引起了廣泛社會關註，多名學者指斥為“荒誕”，但相關研發單位沈默以對。這個“天河工程”其實是一個大規模人工降雨試驗，最早是由青海大學校長王光謙院士於2015年提出的，試圖把三江源地區產生的天然水氣調動到黃河流域，以紓解北方的乾旱。“天河工程”的理論根據是一篇2016年發表於《中國科學：技術科學》的論文，題目為《天空河流：發現、概念及其科學問題》。作者三人，王光謙領銜。該論文發現，“（大氣中）通量強度很高的條帶構成的網絡結構是水汽匯聚、輸送最為集中、強度最大的網絡, 與地表河流具有相同的功能和類似的分級網絡屬性, 可將其稱為‘天空河流(River in the Sky)’, 或簡稱‘天河(Sky River)’。”美國國家海洋和大氣管理局（NOAA）研究員、氣象學家杜鈞認為：“天河，氣象上一般稱為‘大氣河流’（atmospheric river），並不是一個新概念，而是一個大家都熟知的大氣現象。這個概念最早由麻省理工學院的科學家在上世紀九十年代初提出來，在天氣預報中經常應用。例如美國西海岸的大暴雨往往同大氣河流相聯。這個概念本身並沒有問題，但它完全是一個自然現象，人是沒有能力去制造它或控制它流向什麽地方，或不流向什麽地方的。”國防科技大學氣象海洋學院教授陸漢城認為：“天河工程”從理論到技術都很荒誕，甚至抄襲氣象科學家早就發現的觀測研究，“把名詞稍微換了一下”。“這是一個既沒有科學基礎也沒有技術可行性的荒誕幻想項目，居然得到立項支持，是不可思議的。人民的血汗要珍惜！”   <!–[if !mso]> v\\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} o\\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} w\\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} .shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} <![endif]–><!–[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]–><!–[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> 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font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;} <![endif]–><!–[if !mso]> v\\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} o\\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} w\\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} .shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} <![endif]–><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2018/Nov/11292018TIAN1.png" width="550" height="428" alt="" /><div></div><div> </div><div>“天河工程”團隊發表的中國上空整層水汽通量的水平分布圖：紅色圈內是中國東南地區，黑色框內即是三江源區。圖上的每一個格點都有一個小箭頭，箭頭的方向代表水汽輸送的方向，長度代表水汽輸送的大小。較粗的綠色箭頭就是圖中最大的“天河”，它將孟加拉灣的水汽輸送到紅色圈內（即長江、珠江流域）。較細的綠色分箭頭即“天河工程”。</div>   既然遭到內行指控“抄襲”，事情就比較嚴重，當事者實在應該出來說幾句話，不能裝耳聾。至少應該承認“天河工程”的幾位先行者，何必掠人之美？ 據我所知，關於在青藏高原建立水汽通道、通過調入印度洋的暖濕氣流來解決我國北部地區的缺水問題的“空中調雲”設想，其始作俑者是錢學森。有資料記載，錢學森先生1954年回國後，曾在某次對北航學生講話時提岀了一個“工程氣象學”的設想：把雅魯藏布江流域多余的降雨量從空中以“雲狀態”調至我國西北降落下來。讓這些水不是流入印度洋而去滋潤我國大西北的荒漠。他說，這是一件功德無量惠及子孫造福民族的極具長遠戰略意義的大事。切望政府能集中相關專家進行可行性硏究。一旦證明可行，則不論投入多大人力財力物力都是值得的。 在錢學森之後，至少還有幾位學者於1987年和1998年兩次鄭重提出“空中調雲”，在青藏高原建立水汽通道的設想。除此，影響最大的還要算有“中國首富”之稱的民營企業家牟其中。1997年，牟其中向國家獻策，將喜馬拉雅山脈炸開50公裏的口子，讓印度洋暖濕氣流北上，濕潤中國幹燥的大西北，根本改變氣候。後來牟其中因詐騙罪入獄，人們都說這是個瘋狂的夢。 但就是這個夢，這個引進印度洋氣流的狂想，網上的討論竟然持續至今。 一位叫萬重的自稱“西藏深度遊玩家”的網友寫道：倘若印度洋溫熱氣流進入，喜馬拉雅山脈大量的雪山積雪和冰川會快速融化，巨量融水導致西藏河谷和峽谷的人類無法生存，農田無法耕種，道路90%都會完蛋；水汽繼續進入高海拔的羌塘高原，唐古拉山脈、岡底斯山脈、昆侖山脈的積雪和冰川相繼融化，常年的高原凍土解凍，到處都是爛泥，青藏鐵路完全中斷。四川和青海山區降雨增加，地質災害不斷。水汽長途進入更縱深的地區，黃土高原降水增多，幾大水系水量成幾何級數增加，水土流失更加嚴重。長江、黃河等水系沿岸城市大多被淹！ 網友劉晨也認為：這就好比x時代的畝產萬斤，母豬賽大象一樣荒謬。不過要是成了的話，沒準會導致黃河長江水量增加，黃土高原大面積被侵蝕，水土流失加重，黃河長江的河堤可能不保，以前做的水電站基本都會洗洗睡了。損失實在太大，比起讓西部氣候變濕潤這種好處實在是太不值得了。 我以為，這種反對意見的核心，就是把生態問題看作生態問題。生態問題要用恢復生態平衡來解決，而不能以工程手段來解決。工程手段即使奏效，其後果也難以預料。可能解決了一個小問題，製造了一個大問題。 我不是氣象學家，不敢說王光謙院士的暢想是瘋狂，但可以提供一個令人絕望的事實：“天河工程”是把寶押在三江源充沛的水汽之上，但是，因生態環境急劇災難化，三江源已經沒多少水了。 <div><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2018/Nov/11292018TIAN3.jpg" width="559" height="418" alt="" /> </div> 三江源自然保護區   所謂三江源，是指位於青海省的長江、黃河與瀾滄江的源頭地區。這裏地處高原，終年不化的積雪是這幾條大江大河的源泉。近幾十年來，整個三江源地區的生態環境急遽惡化，試以黃河源曲麻萊縣和瑪多縣為例：2004年，曲麻萊縣氣象局局長尕才披露：常年性高山積雪已減少95%，導致域內百分之50%河流幹涸，其余河流流量下降50%，地下水位在10年間下降5公尺。瑪多縣4000多個湖泊只剩下300多個，乾涸了90％以上。三江源地區有冰川雪山，素有“中華水塔”之美譽。“水塔”幹了90％甚至95％，還能剩下多少水給“天河工程”調來調去呢？   2018年11月26日 <!–[if !mso]> <![endif]–>