<figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯，G20会场位于Costa Salguero展览中心。" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/10037/production/_104519556_e42a7ec0-a447-4c53-84d1-a0cf41f5543e.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">EPA</span></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">徘徊不前的中美关系期待突破，谈判地点不在北京中南海或华盛顿白宫，而是阿根廷首都布宜诺斯艾利斯的晚宴餐桌。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">在即将举行的二十国领导人峰会（G20）期间，美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平预计会以晚餐会形式进行会谈。这将是中美贸易战爆发后两国领导人首次会面。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">对于会谈的前景，香港经济学家、香港中文大学前校长刘遵义接受BBC中文采访时认为，中美两国有可能在峰会上提出促成贸易停战的原则。但两国间的竞争是长期的、不可避免的战略性比拼，贸易争端不可能在短时间内解决。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">澳新银行大中华区首席经济学家杨宇霆也对BBC中文表示，峰会将缓和中美两国贸易对抗的紧张气氛，减少针锋相对的行为，但未必是贸易关系走向良好的转折点。</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-46292969" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">美国航母访港与中美关系是否回暖的争论</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-41943816" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">习近平特朗普博弈 谁是最后的大赢家？</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-39513342" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">习特会：中美领袖的核心利益是什么？</a></li></ul><h2>叫阵</h2><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/15E70/production/_104521798_3957ff9a-43b2-485f-856c-599fc0f52bc2.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/15E70/production/_104521798_3957ff9a-43b2-485f-856c-599fc0f52bc2.jpg" alt="，" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">EPA</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">11月27日，峰会会场进行最后的布置。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">根据目前为止的公开报道，特朗普与习近平将在12月1日周六共进晚餐并展开会谈，这很可能是两人离开布宜诺斯艾利斯前的最后一项官方行程。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">上一次习特会要追溯到去年11月特朗普访问北京，当时两人表现热络，一同游故宫、赏京剧。茶叙期间，特朗普还掏出了平板电脑向习近平夫妇展示外孙女用中文演唱、背古诗的影片。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">然而，随着中美贸易战开打、双边关系急转直下，特朗普与习近平一年未有会见。两人上一次的通话是在11月初，确认会在G20峰会期间会面。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">就在市场谨慎期盼中美关系回暖、观望G20习特会成果之时，特朗普抛出爆炸性发言。他周一接受《华尔街日报》访问，明确表示“几乎不可能”延后或暂停提高中国商品的关税，意味着他将按原计划在2019年1月1日将对2000亿美元中国产品加征的关税从10%上调到25%。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普还说，他对目前贸易战的进程非常满意，美国只用了一小部分“弹药”。他不仅可以针对总值2670亿美元的其他中国输美商品征收关税，还有提高关税水平的空间。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">自诩是谈判天才的特朗普不太可能在抵达谈判桌前就把底牌亮出，有分析称，他在峰会前几天这一敏感时机的强硬表态，有可能是一枚“烟雾弹”，争取在谈判桌上占据更强势的位置。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">在周二的G20行前的白宫吹风会上，美国国家经济顾问库德洛（Larry Kudlow）继续向北京施压，指白宫对中国对贸易问题的谈判立场感到失望。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“我非常失望，我知道总统也极其失望，因此周六的晚餐会是一个展开新一页、缔造突破的机会，”库德洛说，“习主席要加紧行动，给我们提供一些新的想法。”他强调，华府与北京在知识产权盗窃、迫使美国公司转让技术等美方不满的问题上，依然存有分歧。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">峰会前美方的表态为即将到来的习特会泼冷水，令中美贸易战继续展示出鏖战的趋势。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">相比之下，中方在峰会前行事低调，并未作过多表态。针对特朗普的坚持上调关税的发言，中国外交部发言人耿爽在例行记者会上表示，两国经济团队正在保持接触，中国愿通过谈判磋商解决经贸问题，同时也会坚决捍卫自身合法权益。</p><h2>谈判团队</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">晚餐会时间初定，谁将坐上谈判桌？</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">香港媒体《南华早报》引述一位参与筹备习特会的人士称，多少人将坐在习近平与特朗普身边，是一个关键问题。这位人士透露，晚餐会的模式很可能是“一加六”，习近平与特朗普分别带领六位幕僚，中美团队面对面而坐。若计划有变， “一加二”、“一加四”的模式也不无可能。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中方代表可能包括国务委员杨洁篪、中共中央办公厅主任丁薛祥、副总理刘鹤、外交部长王毅、中国驻美大使崔天凯等人。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">早前有传，负责中美贸易谈判的刘鹤曾有计划在感恩节后到访华盛顿，与美国财政部长姆努钦（Steve Mnuchin）会面协调峰会谈判，但计划最终有变，刘鹤转而取道德国后前往阿根廷。两国高层未提前会见，意味着习特会将承担大部分的谈判工作。中美高层官员的上次会见是11月初在华盛顿举行的第二轮中美外交安全对话。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/785C/production/_104521803_79e1ee6c-371c-40f5-8071-39f192698eec.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/785C/production/_104521803_79e1ee6c-371c-40f5-8071-39f192698eec.jpg" alt="，" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">REUTERS</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">有消息称，被认为是对华鹰派人物的白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）没有受邀参加习特晚餐会。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">美方的团队代表预料将在国家安全顾问博尔顿（John Bolton）、国务卿蓬佩奥（Mike Pompeo）、财政部长姆努钦（Steve Mnuchin）、商务部长罗斯（Wilbur Ross）、国家经济顾问库德洛、美国贸易代表莱特希泽（Robert Lighthizer）、美国驻华大使布兰斯塔德（Terry Branstad）之中产生。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">值得留意的是，《南华早报》引述消息源称，被认为是对华鹰派人物的白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）没有受邀参加晚餐会。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">11月中旬，向来支持对中国采取更严厉的关税惩罚的纳瓦罗在华盛顿的智库会议上警告，对贸易战停歇抱有希望的华尔街不应插手美国对华关税问题。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">白宫国家经济委员会主任库德洛在次日罕见公开批评纳瓦罗失言，直指后者发言“离谱”，暗示纳瓦罗并非白宫官方幕僚，只是以私人身份与特朗普保有沟通。纳瓦罗与库德洛的交锋让特朗普对华政策团队的内部矛盾进一步公开化。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">纳瓦罗在G20会谈中的缺席意味着，相对支持自由贸易的美方经济幕僚可能在人数上占上风，估计美方代表团也希望规避风险，避免立场极鹰派的纳瓦罗让会谈脱轨。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">立场各异的幕僚将如何影响特朗普的对华看法令人玩味，但毫无疑问的是，作为总统的特朗普将是最终决策者。</p><h2>能达成休战协议吗？</h2><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/C67C/production/_104521805_gettyimages-1059036038.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/C67C/production/_104521805_gettyimages-1059036038.jpg" alt="，" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">11月8日，中国领导人习近平在北京会见95岁的前美国国务卿基辛格。中美高层沟通在贸易战开始以后呈现出停滞状态，但习近平在11月和特朗普进行了一次通话。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">经过长时间的对峙和隔空交火之后，习近平与特朗普将谈些什么？</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">外界普遍认为，双方可能提及朝鲜半岛、南中国海、台湾等议题，但中美贸易战将是习特会的重中之重。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">美国商务部部长罗斯较早前表示，两位领导人不会讨论政策细节，而是会谈论大局势。“如果会谈进展顺利，它会设下往后的（贸易谈判）框架，”罗斯说，“但在一月前，我们绝对不会有一个正式的、完整的合约。那是不可能的。”</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">不仅美国高官轮番释出对习特会成果悲观的信号，多位美国匿名官员、华盛顿智库研究员的表态也显示，华府对习特会能达成巨大突破普遍不抱期待。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">路透社引述资深美国官员称，中国早前以书面回应了美国对中国提出的贸易改革要求，其中列出142项话题，分别收录在三个类别：中国愿意进一步协商的问题、已经在采取行动的问题，以及中方认为毫无讨论余地的问题。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">这名匿名官员还表示，中方的这份回应“不太可能导向习特会上的突破”，因为美方不能接受中方“不可讨论”的议题名单。这位官员指出，美方对中方的回应持怀疑态度，因为中国没有达成很多此前许下的经贸改革承诺。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">另一位知晓中美贸易谈判进展的匿名官员则评价，中国的书面回应只是“老调重弹”，跟之前的改革承诺相差无几。这位官员认为，峰会可能达成的一种成果，是华盛顿暂停提高关税，以换取中国在短时间内的某些行动，而两国会继续商讨那些更长期、棘手的话题。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">美国智库战略与国际研究中心的亚洲经济资深顾问古德曼（Matthew Goodman）估计，习特会能否达成贸易战暂时停火的协议是51比49的几率。古德曼倾向预期中美能达成防止贸易战升级、限制关税影响的某种共识。“我不认为这是特朗普圈子中一些幕僚想要的结果，但我认为总统可能会觉得，他可以把这个协议宣传为某种积极的成就。”他在战略与国际研究中心的G20前瞻简报会上向记者表示。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">不过，即使中美在习特会上同意偃旗息鼓，不代表中美经贸摩擦能在一夜间消失。“即使能同意停火，也不会解决问题。在美国经济、中美经贸关系中，依然会存在着深层次、结构性的挑战。” 古德曼认为，要彻底治病除根，还需两国打造一个面向未来的谈判框架，认真探讨关于出口补贴、工业政策等结构性问题。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">澳新银行大中华区首席经济学家杨宇霆对BBC中文表示，这次峰会将缓和中美两国贸易对抗的紧张气氛，减少针锋相对的行为。他说，双方可能会在峰会上表示希望和解的意愿，但峰会未必是贸易关系走向良好的转折点，“不要高兴的太早”。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">香港经济学家、香港中文大学前校长刘遵义在BBC中文的访问中预测，中美两国有可能在峰会上“达成框架协议，提出促成贸易停战的原则性行为”。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但他认为，中美两国已经在经济和技术方面展开了全面较量，两国间的竞争是长期的、不可避免的战略性比拼，并不局限于贸易争端，不可能在短时间内解决。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">鉴于特朗普一贯不按理出牌的风格，刘遵义表示“很难说”特朗普是否会决定继续加增关税。但即使美国全面升级关税管控，中国的损失也不会太大，而对美国的企业和消费者却有很大影响。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">刘遵义举例，一部500美元的苹果手机在中国产生的GDP大概不会超过20美元，因为苹果手机的芯片、屏幕等零配件都是从其他国家进口。就算增加关税，或转移生产，对中国GDP的影响也很小。而对于美国消费者来说，则是多了一笔开支。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">他说，全面升级贸易战最终“给中国GDP增速造成的总损失估计不会超过1.1%”，而这种打击也“完全可以处理”。他在即将出版的新书《中美贸易战及未来的经济关系》中做了全面估算。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111;"><div style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.602px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/720×405/p06r19ws.jpg" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px -25.6641px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; display: block; position: absolute;" alt="" /><div style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.602px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px; position: relative;"><div style="border: 0px; 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color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.602px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px;"><div id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-1wrp" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.602px; vertical-align: baseline; z-index: 999; position: relative; height: 0px; width: 616.211px;"><iframe id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-1" name="smphtml5iframemedia-player-1" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://emp.bbc.com/emp/SMPj/2.23.6/iframe.html" gesture="media" allow="autoplay" title="特朗普和习近平还是哥们吗？" style="border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 616.211px; height: 346.602px;"></iframe></div></figure></div><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div></div></div></div></div><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;">特朗普和习近平还是哥们吗？</figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">如果美国以继续增加关税的手段开启新一轮贸易打击，杨宇霆表示中国一定会采取反击。他说，中国“可能继续提高对美贸易关税，或者在其他方面采取制裁”。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">刘遵义不建议中国采取以硬制硬的方式，“再增加关税最多会让自己的企业吃亏”。他提醒，中国的当务之急是加紧研发高科技。2017和2016年中国研发出了全球最快的超级计算机，证明中国有能力，只是尚需时间和资源，以达到量产规模。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">对于中国如何解决内部经济问题，他认为不要把眼光只集中在美国市场，而要“继续对其他国家开放，全面降低关税”，中国也需要适量增加内需。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">为了减少中美贸易逆差，杨宇霆建议美国把低成品产品的生产和出口慢慢转移到越南、印尼等劳动力成本较低的东南亚国家，以减少对美总体出口总额。而中国可以集中对美出口高增值产品，这样可以做到双赢。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">刘遵义认为，美国应该增加对中国的出口，尤其是农产品和能源，这样可以平衡双边贸易。他说，中国对肉类、谷物等农产品的需求在持续扩大，也会不断增加天然气的需求，而美国是农业大国和净能源出口国，两国互惠互利才能共同促进经济发展。</p>