<figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="(Original Caption) 01/29/1979-Washington, DC: Chinese Vice-Premier Deng Xiaoping speaking during welcoming ceremony as President Jimmy Carter looks on." src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/9361/production/_104992773_gettyimages-515554064.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">1979年1月，邓小平访美与时任美国总统卡特握手见面。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><em style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">（注：本文不代表BBC立场和观点）</em></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">喜气洋洋的2019年刚开始，台湾总统蔡英文和中国国家主席习近平的讲话中，提醒世界在中美关系正常化40年后，当年影响正常化的台湾问题，至今仍然是未解决的潜在爆发问题。蔡英文总统坚决断言，台湾要保持自由民主体制，以对等方式与中国交涉，习近平主席则坚决断言，维护国家主权决心不变，不承诺放弃使用武力。中美建交40年，到底带来了什么后果？</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 23px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">经过长时间的谈判后，北京和华盛顿在1979年1月1日正式建立外交关系，令两个“输家”出现。最为明显的是蒋介石的“中华民国”政府，国民党政府在国共内战从大陆逃到台湾，即使蒋介石在1975年离世，台湾仍然实行独裁统治。第二个最大输家是苏联，当时苏联忧虑中美和解会对其不利，改变西方国家对抗莫斯科的势力平衡，最终也真的有所改变。</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-46719017" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">中美建交40年：台湾如何在大国之间找出自己的路</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-46705476" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">“耸人听闻”的新冷战之说和越加政治化的中美关系</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-46453914" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">观点：中美贸易战休战与渐行渐远的中美关系</a></li></ul><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/B5CA/production/_105083564_50989ec9-3ddb-44c6-96d4-474699f5ce29.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/B5CA/production/_105083564_50989ec9-3ddb-44c6-96d4-474699f5ce29.jpg" alt="台湾总统蔡英文" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">AFP</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">台湾总统蔡英文寻求以对等方式与北京交涉。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">许多在台湾的人，当时十分担心中美关系正常化，会令他们被中共吞并，当中很多人正是为了逃避中共政府而到台湾。但后来，台湾成为了明显的赢家。他们起初在国民党治下被打压，蒋介石实行列宁主义式独裁，严苛地压在民众身上，但如今，他们有全球最有活力、最成功的民主选出的政府，除了拥有法治、愈来愈保障人权，也促进了其经济及社会发展。当然，他们仍在面对中国的威胁和压力，中国在邓小平40年前才刚开始恢复国力下，现在已是一大国。在台湾的努力、美国的《台湾关系法》以及其他国家非正式支持下，台湾的人现在过得比1979年时更好，否则，他们可能仍然被蒋家国民党所统治，而非在1980年代末开始发生连串事件，令政党现在需要在更趋民主的社会中竞争。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中美关系正常化，中共无疑是最大的赢家，最快见效的好处，是北京在与苏联产生忧虑的争端中得到更大的支持。而更为重要的是，从长线来看，是支持了邓小平的“改革开放”政策，这些政策开展的时机，正是中美关系正常化前一段不久的时间。虽然日本、其他欧洲大国、联合国或一些国际组织，在没有美国支持下，也可能推进中国现代化，但程度不一样，中美关系正常化真的开启了北京与世界合作的洪闸，刺激中国有令人叹为观止的经济及社会发展，其政治、外交和军事实力也有很大的增长。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111;"><div style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.602px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/720×405/p06cxqzy.jpg" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px -25.6641px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; display: block; position: absolute;" alt="" /><div style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.602px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px; position: relative;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div id="sticky-player-1" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><figure data-playable="{"settings":{"counterName":"zhongwensimp.world.story.46773109.page","edition":"US","pageType":"eav2","uniqueID":"46773109","ui":{"locale":{"lang":"zh-hans"}},"externalEmbedUrl":"https:\\/\\/www.bbc.com\\/zhongwen\\/simp\\/world-46773109\\/embed","insideIframe":false,"statsObject":{"clipPID":"p06cxq3y"},"playlistObject":{"title":"\\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\u4f1a\\u5982\\u4f55\\u5f71\\u54cd\\u4f60","holdingImageURL":"https:\\/\\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\\/images\\/ic\\/$recipe\\/p06cxqzy.jpg","guidance":"","embedRights":"allowed","summary":"\\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\u4f1a\\u5982\\u4f55\\u5f71\\u54cd\\u4f60","liveRewind":false,"simulcast":false,"items":[{"vpid":"p06cxq41","live":false,"duration":175,"kind":"programme"}]}},"otherSettings":{"advertisingAllowed":true,"continuousPlayCfg":{"enabled":false},"isAutoplayOnForAudience":false}}" id="media-player-1" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.602px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px;"><div id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-1wrp" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.602px; vertical-align: baseline; z-index: 999; position: relative; height: 0px; width: 616.211px;"><iframe id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-1" name="smphtml5iframemedia-player-1" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://emp.bbc.com/emp/SMPj/2.23.11/iframe.html" gesture="media" allow="autoplay" title="中美贸易战会如何影响你" style="border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 616.211px; height: 346.602px;"></iframe></div></figure></div><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div></div></div></div></div><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;">中美贸易战会如何影响你</figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">我们应该怎样去评估美国在中美关系正常化上的得失？这如今成为美国，以至其他地方的一个新兴争议话题。许多精明的评论者谴责美国过去40年与中国互动，形容是灾难性错误，有人认为“中国是美国外交政策最大的失败”，美国协助了中国成为自己的对手，让其挑战自己在二战后建立的霸权地位。一些人声称，虽然在1970年代关系正常化看似是合理的一步，但其结果却造成了一个对美国利益而充满危险的当代威胁，要维持世界和平，便要有新政策，专门用作压制中国实力扩张。正如一位备受尊敬而清醒的前加拿大驻华大使最近所言，“中国是愈来愈不负责任的强权和伙伴，只有方便时才会假装跟从国际规范”。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">要重申当年关系正常化的智慧——我必须指出，我是美国在1966至1978年间致力与中国关系正常化的其中一分子，在建立外交关系后首两年半，我住在中国，带领美国学术及专业人士一同协助建立可信的法律系统，以解决文化大革命后的混乱。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/795C/production/_104886013_7540c9ef-4b74-4b41-b403-db106c8cc183.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/795C/production/_104886013_7540c9ef-4b74-4b41-b403-db106c8cc183.jpg" alt="习近平与特朗普2017年合照" width="976" height="678" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">要评估关系正常化的成功与后果——我们要视乎当时有没有其他存在的方案。1971年，美国终于不能够阻止中共加入联合国，长达逾20年的政策失败了。到1970年代末，邓小平要开放自己国家的合作和改革，成为国际政治中一股强大的洪流，对邓的决定有正面评价，如果我们当时选择抗拒这股洪流，同样可能会失败。邓小平的新政策适合当年中国发展，亦有利于世界和平，有无美国的参与，也有很大机会能够成功。如果美国选择不参与中国的新政策，但中国又成功了，美国在亚洲便会被孤立，或会失去一些机会和责任，最终在中国崛起下，还是要决定放弃已没甚作用的对抗政策。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">如果美国拒绝参与，而邓小平失败了，那么这场失败也会成为持续中国对美国怀抱敌意重要的一部分，结果可能令长期受苦的中国人民再次陷入混乱之中；另一方面，中国再次对世界及美国实行强硬的对抗政策。美国前总统卡特在《华盛顿邮报》撰文，正常化后，东亚及太平洋地区有得来不易但相对稳定的和平，否则我们可能面对比今天更严峻的危机。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">当年，中美关系正常化的过程，由时任总统尼克松启动，但没有完成；后由里根和卡特接任，卡特在关系正常化完成过程中，未被认为有很大的功劳。他近期的文章强调，中美关系正常化后，两国经济融合，令两国成为“世界繁荣的发动机”。而包括我在内，很多1972年便认识中国的人，或是现在熟悉中国的人也会认为，关系正常化为中国人民带来经济及社会福利上有巨大改善的机会。尽管，他们仍然在极为独裁的体制下生活，无论在中国内外的人均想看到，中国除了在经济和社会现代化方面外，也有政治上的改善，但事实仍然打击了他们的希望。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">要评估40年前关系正常化的重要性，其中重要的一点是，如其他政策一样，不能够预期它能确保未来的结果。未来一直在变，有不同的可能性。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/126E5/production/_97439457_gettyimages-184287950.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/126E5/production/_97439457_gettyimages-184287950.jpg" alt="中美国旗" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">ISTOCK</span></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国现在果敢的外交政策，及针对其国内令人沮丧的打压，未必是正常化下的必然结果。如果历史把事件推向另外一个方向发展，结果可能完全不同。如果在1980年代，中共领导人倾向自由派及进步力量的胡耀邦和赵紫阳，能够与其他领袖保持关系，可能可以更有技巧地应付支持民主的示威者；又如果，邓小平在1989年6月4日，决定不用武力镇压大型示威；又如果，总理朱镕基成功带领中国加入世贸后，又成为一个在党内拥有全权的开明领袖？</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">人民对习近平极度的权力垄断愈来愈不满，既伤害了中国，也对外国造成影响，或许如此，中国可能因此走向更自由化及多元化的方向。我在1968年撰写了有关中國刑事司法的书籍，当时正是文革的高峰，我当时提出，毛泽东在他国家引发持续的悲剧，最终会启发起一些回应，促进中国人民及世界有更好的日子，结果也是这样。无论有没有任期限制，习近平也不会永久执政，虽然世事无绝对，但中国国内及国际政治，包括中美关系，好可能会有很大的改善。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">当习近平政权正向自由派国际秩序构成重大战略挑战，作为过渡期，美国对其他民主国家必须调整政策，但同时不能过度反应，造成不明智的风险，威胁到与中国关系正常化的成果和40年的进展，以及其国际关系。我们不应该“把婴儿与洗澡水一起倒掉”（Throw out the baby with the bath，意旨不分良莠，好坏一起丢）。</p>