<figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="在香港，游行人数除了作为社会运动的一个纪录，更是“舆论战”。" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/13D0A/production/_107526118_hi054796191.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">REUTERS</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">在香港，游行人数除了作为社会运动的一个纪录，更是“舆论战”。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">香港每年7月1日都有团体举办游行，今年也不例外。游行结束后，外界除了关注政府的回应外，还会留意官方和游行举办方各自公布的参加人数，因为它不单是一个数字，还是各方舆论的角力场。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">政府公布的数字往往会比游行主办方公布的数字低，偏差有时候会达数倍，一高一低的有关数字常引发争议。例如，早些时候香港民间人权阵线（简称“民阵”）为反对《逃犯条例》修订举行数次游行，对于6月16日举行的游行，主办方“民阵”称有约200万人参加，香港警方却说高峰期只有约33.8万人。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">香港报章和网络对每次游行后各方公布的人数都充满质疑，一边认为警方故意代表官方压低游行数字，减少游行带来的舆论影响；另一边认为游行主办方故意夸大数字，营造“民意庞大”的效果。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">分析人士对BBC中文指出，香港的游行示威文化演变多年，官方和民间都会利用这个数字营造各方想要的效果，但这种纯粹对人数的争议其实没有太大实质作用，重要的是观察参加游行人士的背景，才能了解民意的走向。</p><h2>数字之争</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">这种数字之争几乎是香港每次游行集会后必然上演的情况，争议也并不仅限于民主派团体举行的游行。例如，2017年七名警务人员在“占领中环”示威期间被指殴打一名示威者罪成，支持警方的团体曾经举行游行，主办方指有约3500人参加，但警方公布最高峰时间只有约1800人。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">另外，亲建制派团体2014年曾经举办反对“占领中环”的游行，主办方称约有19万人参加，警方就说有11万人参加。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">最受关注的是每年都在香港维园举办的1989“六四”周年晚会和香港主权移交纪念日当天举办的“七一”游行。其中，主办今年“六四”晚会的“香港市民支援爱国民主运动联合会”（简称“支联会”）公布有大约18万人，警方的数字就指出最高峰时期只有约3.7万人，这个说法随即引来不满。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/1641A/production/_107526119_hongkong_victoria_park_protest_map640-nc.png" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/1641A/production/_107526119_hongkong_victoria_park_protest_map640-nc.png" alt="维多利亚公园" width="640" height="455" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /></span></figure><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/132E2/production/_107226587_hi054423791.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/132E2/production/_107226587_hi054423791.jpg" alt="参加今年“六四”晚会的人士坐满了维多利亚公园六个硬地足球场和旁边的草坪。" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">AFP</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">参加今年“六四”周年晚会的人士坐满了维多利亚公园六个硬地足球场和旁边的草坪。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">香港“民阵”副召集人梁颖敏接受BBC中文访问时指出，她的团体与警方开会商讨今年的“七一”游行时，对方指维园的中央草坪可容纳三万多人，而今年“六四”晚会时出席晚会的人除了坐满草坪，旁边的六个小型足球场也坐满。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“为什么警方开会时跟我们说草坪已经可以容纳三万多人，但我们看见整个维园都坐满人时，他的估算才三万多人？这个问题真的要问警方。”</p><h2>“粗略估计数字”</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">香港警务处书面回应BBC中文查询时指出，警方点算集会人数的方法是在集会进行期间，派员于多个高点作出观察，以及点算某一时段在不同区域所聚集的人数，从而评估参与集会的人数。警方又说，评估集会人数只是一个“粗略估计数字”，用来调派资源，数字只用作内部参考之用，不会主动公开。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">警方公布6月16日游行的参与人数时特别提到，当天只计算途经原定游行路线的人数。当天许多游行人士使用非原订路线前往游行终点，但警方没有提到，是否计算了这些参加游行的人。</p><div style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div role="region" aria-label="Facebook 用户名 BBC 中文網（繁體）" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: inline-block; position: relative;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-48754602#jump-linkhttps://www.facebook.com/bbcnewstrad/videos/394086158118919/" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3); border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">跳过 Facebook 帖子 用户名 BBC 中文網（繁體）</a><div data-href="https://www.facebook.com/bbcnewstrad/videos/394086158118919/" data-width="552" fb-xfbml-state="rendered" fb-iframe-plugin-query="app_id=&container_width=448&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fbbcnewstrad%2Fvideos%2F394086158118919%2F&locale=en_GB&sdk=joey&width=552" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: inline-block; position: relative; border-radius: 3px; max-width: none;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; position: relative; width: 552px; height: 400px;"><iframe name="fd05b9303d456" width="552px" height="1000px" title="fb:post Facebook Social Plugin" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" scrolling="no" allow="encrypted-media" src="https://www.facebook.com/v2.3/plugins/post.php?app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter.php%3Fversion%3D44%23cb%3Df1d15d66e96ac34%26domain%3Dwww.bbc.com%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.bbc.com%252Ff3a87930fba3b1c%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=448&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fbbcnewstrad%2Fvideos%2F394086158118919%2F&locale=en_GB&sdk=joey&width=552" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; position: absolute; visibility: visible; width: 552px; height: 400px;"></iframe></span></div><p id="jump-linkhttps://www.facebook.com/bbcnewstrad/videos/394086158118919/" tabindex="-1" style="font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">结尾 Facebook 帖子 用户名 BBC 中文網（繁體）</p></div></div></div></div><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">BBC中文另外也向“民阵”查询计算游行人数的方法，“民阵”回应指他们派出三批义工团在天桥等高点观察，计算每横排的人数，最后相加。而针对6月16日的游行时，义工团按当时情况分工到非原定游行路线按人流速度、密度和在场纠察报告的即时情况，作出估算。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">除了官方和游行主办方，香港大学多年来都透过民意研究计划，尝试提供一个客观的游行统计数字。<a href="https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/chinese/features/july1/headcount/2018/index.html" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">计划在去年的“七一游行”透过人手在某一个高点进行点算</a>，之后再以随机抽样电话调查方式核查，估计参加游行的人数在2.6万至3.1万人之间，而警方和游行主办方分别指有一万和五万人参加该次游行。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">民意研究计划总监钟庭耀接受路透社访问时指出，游行人数的统计近来越来越政治化，“一边越来越夸大，一边就越来越压缩，两边都已经脱离现实。”</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-48511746" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">六四30周年：维园纪念会场内外的民主呼声</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-48729091" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">逃犯条例修订争议：一首圣歌为何成为香港示威主题曲</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-48658331" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">香港逃犯条例强推或给中美关系增添新变数</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-48659394" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">香港“近两百万人”示威加深台湾对中国的恐惧与不信任</a></li></ul><h2>各自解读</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">香港岭南大学社会学及社会政策系副教授陈效能留意到，许多传媒在报道6月16日的游行时都偏向采用“民阵”公布的近“200万人游行”的数字。她接受BBC中文访问时指出，这个数字会被用来“达到某些目的”，例如如果一份报章希望强调一个立场，它就采用那个数字。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“不同的阵营或不同看法的人都可以根据这两个不同的数字，去说他们想说的事情。”</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">翻查报道，大部份报道6月16日香港游行的国际媒体都援引“民阵”所说的近“200万人游行”的数字，包括英国《卫报》、美国《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》等。BBC国际媒体观察部（BBC Monitoring）的分析也留意到，伊朗等地网民讨论香港的游行时，都使用这个数字。</p><div style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 40px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><div data-idt-uuid="ef938d67-f2ba-4663-9d61-95a47ce68d41" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div data-graphicuuid="ef938d67-f2ba-4663-9d61-95a47ce68d41" dir="ltr" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 591.563px; box-sizing: border-box;"><h2>歷年七一遊行各方公佈的遊行人數數字</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 20px; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-word;">警方和遊行主辦方公佈的數字往往有很大的差距</p><div data-vegacontainer="true" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><canvas width="592" height="430" role="img" aria-label="A chart" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></canvas><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div><span style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2px 0px 0px; padding: 4px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; max-width: 100%; width: 591.563px; box-sizing: border-box; word-break: break-word; display: flex; align-items: flex-end;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; max-width: 100%; width: 591.563px; box-sizing: border-box; word-break: break-word; display: flex; -webkit-box-pack: justify; justify-content: space-between;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">資料來源：香港大學民意研究計劃</div><svg height="15" width="45" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" aria-label="BBCLogo" viewbox="0 0 211.122 60.482" rtl="ltr"><g fill-rule="evenodd"><defs></defs><clippath id="SVGID_2_"><use xlink:href="#SVGID_1_" overflow="visible"></use></clippath></g></svg></span></span></div></div></div><div style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 40px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><div data-idt-uuid="8dec7a29-f62d-4971-8967-38e89ba59657" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div data-graphicuuid="8dec7a29-f62d-4971-8967-38e89ba59657" dir="ltr" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 591.563px; box-sizing: border-box;"><h2>香港六四維園燭光晚會出席人數</h2><div data-vegacontainer="true" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><canvas width="592" height="430" role="img" aria-label="A chart" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></canvas><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; max-width: 100%; width: 591.563px; box-sizing: border-box; word-break: break-word; display: flex; align-items: flex-end;">香港警方在個別年份沒有公布出席人數，警方計算方法為「最高峰時期」的人數</span><span style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2px 0px 0px; padding: 4px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline; max-width: 100%; width: 591.563px; box-sizing: border-box; word-break: break-word; display: flex; align-items: flex-end;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; max-width: 100%; width: 591.563px; box-sizing: border-box; word-break: break-word; display: flex; -webkit-box-pack: justify; justify-content: space-between;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">資料來源：香港媒體、支聯會及警方</div><svg height="15" width="45" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" aria-label="BBCLogo" viewbox="0 0 211.122 60.482" rtl="ltr"><g fill-rule="evenodd"><defs></defs><clippath id="SVGID_2_"><use xlink:href="#SVGID_1_" overflow="visible"></use></clippath></g></svg></span></span></div></div></div><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">香港理工大学社会政策研究中心主任钟剑华指出，警方提供的数字只计算依照原本路线游行的人，但事实上附近的街道也有许多人在游行。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">他接受BBC中文访问时说，他留意到警方近年似乎会故意把参加游行或集会的人数压低，他认为游行主办方会因应这种情况故意高估游行人数，令公众对游行人数的印象不会被警方的数字拖下去。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">钟剑华认为，各界可以没完没了地为具体的游行人数争吵，但这并没有意思，因为一个不争的地方是游行的确吸引了很多人参加，而最重要的反而是这些人的背景，例如是这次反对《逃犯条例》修订的游行。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“这次游行多了许多年青人参加，也有许多之前没有参加游行的年长人士。我觉得游行人士的组合更值得社会考究。”</p>