<h1><br /></h1><div property="articleBody" style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 53.7656px 0px auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2019/Jul/7312019FRONTHK.jpg" width="660" height="371" alt="" /><br /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">EPA</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">2019年7月31日，香港东区法院门外的抗议者</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">英国和美国的媒体近日接连出现有关香港抗议的评论文章。其中，英国《金融时报》一篇评论认为，香港成了新冷战的热点。无巧不成书，长期主张遏制中国的美国战略问题专家约瑟夫∙鲍斯可（Joseph Bosco）则在华盛顿的《国会山报》（The Hill）发表另一篇文章中指出，在这场“中国对西方发动的新冷战”中，香港人正在“领头对抗中华人民共和国”。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">鲍斯可在《国会山报》发表的评论认为，只要香港抗议目标局限在针对香港特区政府和警察，北京就会克制而不过度干预，因为他们可以把香港抗议说成当地的骚乱和破坏。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">分析认为， 北京最惧怕的是香港抗议扩展成为一个反对中央政府的全国抗议运动。不过，鲍斯可指出，北京拥有信息控制手段，“不让中国人得到香港抗议的消息”，而香港示威者似乎也没有办法突破中国封锁消息的“竹幕”。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">在这一点上，英国《金融时报》专栏作家吉迪恩•拉赫曼（Gideon Rachman）则认为，北京很可能会优先考虑对香港的政治管控，而把经济考量放在一边。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">拉赫曼说，过去在全球化蓬勃发展的年代，人们认为香港是商业城市的最佳体现，香港人只关心生意和消费，并不关心政治。但是现在整个世界，关注经济胜过政治的时代已成为过去，而香港再次走到新时代的前沿。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/A107/production/_108132214_hk.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/A107/production/_108132214_hk.jpg" alt="《金融时报》专栏作家吉迪恩•拉赫曼" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">TWITTER</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">《金融时报》专栏作家拉赫曼认为，香港抗议运动似乎仍然在升级，势头不见衰减。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">香港走到</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“新冷战”前沿</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">吉迪恩•拉赫曼说，香港在中国崛起和世界经济全球化过程中曾发挥过重要作用。30年前，中国成为世界工厂就是从香港投资开始，并且得益于香港同国际接轨的经验。他承认，现在香港仍然是中国和西方之间的一个关键门户。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">不过，世界进入后全球化时代，民粹主义骚乱，美国和中国的关系紧张加剧，使得香港再次走到了前台。近月以来，700多万香港民众受到一波又一波示威抗议的影响。抗议由最早的“反送中”引起，现在发展成为更广泛诉求的抗议，包括反对警察暴力和要求全面普选。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">拉赫曼说，香港抗议会继续下去，并且可能变得越来越暴力和失控。他本人在香港市中心看到街头燃烧，临时障碍，冲击防暴警察，示威者堆积砖石用来投掷。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">他认为，不难看出香港的混乱与华盛顿和北京两强对峙之间的联系。许多示威者举着美国国旗，他认为中国肯定会以此来指证美国为染指香港抗议的“黑手”。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">鲍斯可则在他的评论中说，香港抗议者显示了智慧和勇气，美国政府也应该表现出同样的智慧和勇气。美国和西方国家掌握更先进的通讯手段，应该跟随香港抗议者，义无反顾地发起针对中国领导人的点名羞辱的舆论攻势。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">香港人权与民主法案</strong></p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/C817/production/_108132215_04a8637d-4758-4736-91a2-dc3b04496a16.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/C817/production/_108132215_04a8637d-4758-4736-91a2-dc3b04496a16.jpg" alt="共和党参议员卢比奥" width="624" height="351" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">华盛顿的反中情绪现在成为国会两党重量级人物的共识，包括众院议长佩洛西，共和党参议员卢比奥等政要政界人物都立挺香港的抗议诉求。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">《金融时报》的拉赫曼向聚集在星条旗下的一些香港抗议者提问，发现他们都急于看到美国国会能通过讨论中的《香港人权与民主法案》，即威胁取消美国与香港之间的贸易特惠关系，关税和技术转让方面的优待。美国曾表示，如果香港的自治受到北京威胁，威胁就会成为现实。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">与此同时，华盛顿的反华情绪已经成为国会两党有影响人物之间少有的共识点，包括众议院的议长佩洛西，共和党参议员卢比奥等政要政界人物都立挺香港的抗议诉求。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">香港抗议者中包括有办公室白领和青年学生。他们中间很多人向美国总统特朗普发出呼吁，要求得到支持。特朗普因敢于制裁中国而受到香港许多民众的敬仰。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">谈到美国总统，拉赫曼却不以为然。他说，特朗普出尔反尔，崇拜威权主义的做派应该引起香港抗议者的警惕。他认为，即使没有美国制裁，如果中国强硬干预香港，例如派解放军进入，便会引发信心危机，导致国际商家撤出香港。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">有评论说，现在北京或许已经并不需要香港继续作为对西方开放的门户。拉赫曼认为，虽然中国今非昔比，比30年前富裕得多，但香港仍然能为大陆发挥关键作用。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/11637/production/_108132217_eeb7763d-c09d-432f-8b6e-03019f4ab767.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/11637/production/_108132217_eeb7763d-c09d-432f-8b6e-03019f4ab767.jpg" alt="香港示威者希望美国制裁威胁会迫使中国对他们的要求作出让步。" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">香港示威者希望美国制裁威胁会迫使中国对他们的要求作出让步。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">比如，中国公司在国际市场融资仍需要香港股市，香港的法律服务和保险业中心地位，中国富有家族在香港投资和维持银行账户，因此北京应该愿意维持香港现状。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">香港</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">呼吁国际施压</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">分析指出，香港示威者似乎对此十分清楚，因此希望能够通过美国的制裁威胁迫使中国作出让步。其中一些人甚至似乎愿意看到美国撤销香港的特殊待遇，愿意忍受由此带来的经济损失。他们引用一句类似“不破不立”的成语，呼吁国际间对中国施压。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">拉赫曼认为，这种激进情绪和街头口号“光复香港，时代革命”应引起北京警惕。“光复香港，时代革命”的口号出自主张本土自决和香港独立的的活动人士梁天琦。目前他正在狱中服刑。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">对北京来说，维持对香港的政治控制可能是当务之急。拉赫曼认为，如果中国政府认为部署军队会奏效，肯定会这么做，而且不会犹豫；不过，北京深知派解放军进入香港的风险。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">在中国媒体方面，即使民族主义情绪浓烈的《环球时报》最近有关香港的评论都不赞成解放军入港干预。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">评论认为，那样做会招致当地反弹，不利于控制香港。现在看来，中国可能会进一步等待抗议失去势头，等待秋后中学生和大学生都返校上学。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">分析文章也观察到，至少眼下的情形是，抗议运动仍然在升级，势头不见衰减。</p></div>