中美贸易战:美国总统特朗普发推文,指称人民币汇率破七是汇率操纵

<figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="100元人民币" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/A85B/production/_104099034_mediaitem104099031.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">REUTERS</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">人民币对美元汇率11年来首度跌破7.0心理大关</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国人民币对美元汇率跌破7.0心理大关不久,美国总统特朗普发推特,指称中国操纵汇率。人民币对美元汇率自2008年以来首次跌破7.0大关。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普在推文中对美国联邦储备委员会喊话说:&#8220;中国让他们的货币贬值到历史低点。这叫&#8216;操纵汇率&#8217;。联邦储备委员会你们听见吗?这是严重违规,必将最终让中国(实力)更加削弱&#8221;。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">自从特朗普宣布将对几乎全部中国对美出口产品征收关税的决定之后,美中贸易战战火重燃。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国政府方面8月2日表示将对美国宣布的对中国输美3000亿美元商品征收关税10%的决定作出反击。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普推文是否意味着美国政府将定义中国为汇率操纵国,还有待观察。一旦美国将某个国家定义为汇率操纵国,将可以依法实施严厉制裁。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">此前,特朗普曾经多次威胁将把中国定义为汇率操纵国,但是迄今为止还没有兑现威胁。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/E479/production/_108198485_trumpchinatwitter.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/E479/production/_108198485_trumpchinatwitter.jpg" alt="特朗普推文" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">TRUMP TWITTER</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">特朗普推文</span></figcaption></figure><h2>&#8220;汇率操纵国&#8221;定义</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">&#8220;汇率操纵国&#8221;的概念来自美国财政部,其背后有3条认定标凖:</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;">该经济体与美国贸易顺差超过200亿美元;</li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;">该经济体经常账户顺差占GDP比重至少为3%;</li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;">持续干预外汇市场,推动其货币价格往一个方向发展。</li></ul><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">如果一个经济体同时满足3条标凖,即会被美国认为是汇率操纵国。一旦认定为汇率操纵国,则美国将启动谈判并可能出台报复性措施。而如果只满足其中两条标凖,美国会把这一经济体纳入汇率政策监测名单。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">目前,中国、印度、日本、德国、韩国和瑞士将继续留在监测名单中,美国将对这些国家进行额外的审查。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">美国财政部曾在1988年将台湾和韩国列为汇率操纵国。中国最近一次被美国列入汇率操纵国发生在1994年。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/10301/production/_98950366_presentational_grey_line464-nc.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/10301/production/_98950366_presentational_grey_line464-nc.jpg" alt="Presentational grey line" width="464" height="2" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">人民币贬值:一把危险的双刃剑</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">BBC中文驻美记者 冯兆音</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">贸易战持续升温,中国以人民币汇率&#8220;破7&#8221;作为美国威胁上调10%的回应。美股道琼斯指数5日急挫700点,损失近3%。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">自从贸易战开打以来,人民币一直面临下行压力,但中国官方一直减缓贬值速度,而此番终于允许突破7元人民币兑1美元的重要心理关口,这象征着中国官方政策的关键转变,作打持久贸易战的准备。人民银行在其后立刻举行记者会,也揭示其对&#8220;破7&#8221;早有预期,且已获得领导层的批准。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">不容忽视的是,人民币贬值是把双刃剑。经济学人智库分析指出,货币贬值能提振出口,帮助减少关税上调对中国出口的冲击;另一方面,货币贬值一旦管控不佳,后果不堪设想。它可能导致大批资本外流、伤害市场信息、增加房地产业的金融风险。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国官媒报导则强调人民币破7是&#8220;正常波动&#8221;。新华社引述人民银行有关负责人称,人民币汇率破7并非犹如年龄增长、冲毁堤坝这样不可逆的过程,而是可升可跌。&#8220;7更像水库的水位,丰水期的时候高一些,到了枯水期的时候又会降下来,有涨有落,都是正常的。&#8221;</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/10301/production/_98950366_presentational_grey_line464-nc.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/10301/production/_98950366_presentational_grey_line464-nc.jpg" alt="Presentational grey line" width="464" height="2" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /></span></figure><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/C7AD/production/_103471115_uschinacontainers.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/C7AD/production/_103471115_uschinacontainers.jpg" alt="US-China shipping containers clash" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span></figure><h2>人民币破七</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">长期以来,人民币兑美元汇率存在&#8220;保七&#8221;的心理关口。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">2008年次贷危机时,人民币大幅升值,汇率从7.8一路下跌到6.8。中国央行为了稳定人民币汇率,盯住美元,使人民币汇率稳定在6.8-6.89。2016年,人民币面临贬值压力,美元兑人民币中间价一度达6.96,中国央行动用大量外汇使汇率停在7元大关之前。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">此后,市场对&#8220;保七&#8221;形成心理预期,认为央行会动用政策手段使汇率稳定低于这个数字。因为一旦突破这个关口,可能导致投资者对人民币未来贬值的预期进一步放大,使外资加速撤离,届时稳定汇率的难度将大大增加。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">今年6月,中国人民银行行长易纲称,中国有能力应对中美贸易战恶化对汇率的挑战,人民币汇率的某个具体数字并不一定特别重要。这句话被广泛解读为央行已不再把&#8220;保七&#8221;作为底线。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">周一人民币&#8220;破七&#8221;之后,央行相关负责人也出面淡化&#8220;破七&#8221;的意义。该负责人称,这个&#8220;7&#8221;不是年龄,过去就回不来了,也不是堤坝,一旦被冲破大水就会一泻千里;&#8220;7&#8221;更像水库的水位,丰水期的时候高一些,到了枯水期的时候又会降下来,有涨有落,都是正常的。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">不过去年底,央行调查统计司原司长盛松成撰文称,人民币汇率&#8220;七&#8221;是重要的心理关口,&#8220;破七&#8221;对人们心理预期的冲击非常大,汇率跌破关键关口会引发大面积止损性的交易,人为地&#8220;制造&#8221;汇率贬值,导致汇率超调。因为做外汇的人都在看,也在看中央银行的决心,一看原来可以不&#8220;保七&#8221;,那就去做空,本来不做空的现在也做空了,本来做多的现在也不做多了。到7就止住了?止不住的,7.1,7.2,7.3都会来的。</p>


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发布于中美关系