“五大訴求缺一不可”可實現嗎？ – 纵览中国-China In Perspective

香港特首林鄭月娥終於在9月4日下午正式宣佈撤回《逃犯條例》的修訂案，滿足了市民“使用法律語言”終結修訂的訴求，在她早前所說的“壽終正寢”的基礎上規範了這一決定，也就是回應了“五大訴求”中的第一個。客觀上使反修例運動失去了存在的基礎，但從目前情況看，顯然還未能有效平息這場運動。運動主體的網民認為，林鄭拖到現在才正式撤回修訂案，已經錯失了兩次糾錯機會，使反修例運動衍生的包括抗議警方濫暴和啟動雙普選在內的運動內涵火速擴展，超越了修例本身，而成為略為失控的反政府、爭民主、護人權社會運動。泛民陣營和網民陣營的最新反應是維持“五大訴求缺一不可”不變，不達目的誓不休。網民列出的九月份的一系列集結活動倡議在網絡流傳發酵，主要形式是以不合作、公民抗命和軟暴力為趨勢的表達性集結，亂局仍將持續，甚至成為常態。林鄭撤回修訂案，確實回應了溫和反對派的訴求，相對平息了他們的怒火，因為在反林鄭的市民當中，相當一部分表示過對“五大訴求”部分答應願意“收貨”，至少“袋住先”。這部分市民包括泛民中的溫和派，以及不願意看到香港社會持續生亂的中間派市民。剩下的對“五大訴求”執著的市民則會再接再厲，為更下一城而抗爭。一名勇武派的背後策劃及資助者7月底就對筆者說，當林鄭沒有在6月中及時撤回修訂案後，年輕的街頭勇武者用連續的衝擊來震撼港府的施政，置林鄭管治於半癱瘓狀態，其士氣如虹，掀動著國際關注，目的就是要得寸進尺，滿足“五大訴求”，甚至逼解放軍入城，“攬炒”（魚死網破）香港。因此，現在的正式撤回，對反對派緩和訴求不起作用，反而大振反對派士氣，認為勇武抗爭取得了階段性勝利，何不“宜將剩勇追窮寇”？另一方面，對林鄭撤回修訂案持正面看法的建制派人士以及稱為“藍絲”的建制支持者而言，撤回決定解決了頗為爭議的法律問題，表達了政府的誠意，使反修例人士沒有了藉口繼續沒玩沒了的示威和暴亂，希望香港重回正軌。還有一些分析人士認為，林鄭正式撤回修例案是為了應對日後的街頭暴亂，為必要時行使《緊急法》掃除障礙，同時在反修例的市民中起到分化作用，減少勇武和暴亂支持者。在目前警方和勇武派的對峙僵持情況下，市民對撤回修例“袋住先”和“五大訴求缺一不可”自然形成兩大派別，雖然示威主體的市民堅持缺一不可，但抗爭前景出現了不明朗的局勢，如果港府不答應剩餘的訴求，或者只是修補其中的訴求（例如加強警監會的人員配備），那麼抗爭者如何繼續日後的行動？硬暴力和軟暴力已經讓警方逐步適應了對策，并被動地訓練出壓制策略，得不到什麼便宜，而升級勇武烈度大有可能進一步逆轉民意，和理非的集結作用不大，擾民的舉動（例如癱瘓交通和佔據道路）又不能爭取更多的支持者，也不能長久，那麼如何實現“五大訴求缺一不可”？到頭來會不會成為一句缺乏有效行動的口號，或者成為一個香港社會長期的隱疾，隨時可以爆發？面對示威者“攬炒”，建制派的壓力也很大，他們希望停止暴力，回歸穩定，但無良方；求安定的市民也苦惱，他們一方面希望治安無恙，生計不損，另一方面對特區政府怨言多多，不滿其施政，并支持烈度低的抗爭。如果反對派堅持缺一不可，紛亂之勢難以平息，激化到頂點就可能實施《緊急法》，香港便掉入萬劫不復的懸崖，變成死城，全社會要為這個結果買單。2014年“佔中運動”期間，圍繞著撤離還是堅守街頭，反對派陣營分歧很大，協調不果，最終在精疲力盡之時被警方輕鬆清場而結束了運動。反修例運動的中堅力量主要來自“佔中運動”的勇武者，他們摒棄了和理非方式，採用了新的勇武和暴力手法，逼政府就範，現在同樣面對類似的選擇，但明顯是主流反對派堅持缺一不可，方式上可能會採取來去無影（Be water)的游擊快閃來對付警方的壓制，仍可對政府形成懊惱的壓力。建制力量同樣也經過盤算，政府的拳頭大，警力充足，泛民所批評的“以暴制暴”不可避免，大逮捕隨之而來，示威者處於戰略下風。如果衝突升級，港府很有可能實施《緊急法》，限制許多自由和行動，官方已經有輿論準備了，這也是官方版本的“先禮後兵”。在建制退一步進兩步的潛在高壓下，在官方輿論營造的“顏色革命”陰謀的指責下，反對派的“五大訴求缺一不可”，行動上如何演繹，需要反對派的政治智慧。跨界別的對話平台可能是一條出路，但網民的代表沒有出現，政府找不到談判對手，滿眼都是隱形的對手，只能一手硬一手軟來對付局面。從長遠看，缺一不可的不妥協帶來的持續抗爭和動亂，始終會面臨集權對手的強力打壓而令自己的生存空間大大收縮，由於中共的鬥爭哲學一成不變，香港街頭暴力的硬碰硬對於未來香港的政改談判和民主進程不利。<!–[if gte mso 9]><xml><o:DocumentProperties><o:Revision>1</o:Revision><o:Pages>1</o:Pages><o:Lines>1</o:Lines><o:Paragraphs>1</o:Paragraphs></o:DocumentProperties></xml><![endif]–><!–[if gte mso 9]><xml><o:OfficeDocumentSettings></o:OfficeDocumentSettings></xml><![endif]–><!–[if gte mso 9]><xml><w:WordDocument><w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel><w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery><w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery>2</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery><w:DocumentKind>DocumentNotSpecified</w:DocumentKind><w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing>7.8 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></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table 3D effects 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table 3D effects 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Contemporary" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Elegant" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Professional" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Subtle 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Subtle 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Web 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Web 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Web 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Balloon Text" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Grid" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Table Theme" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Placeholder Text" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="No Spacing" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="List Paragraph" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Quote" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Intense Quote" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> </w:LatentStyles></xml><![endif]–>