香港示威進入“多元抗爭”階段 – 纵览中国-China In Perspective

香港從6月初開始的反修例運動至今，以“勇武”為主要特色的遊行加衝擊給當局帶來了比2014年”佔中運動”更加震撼的效應，并取得了階段性成果，迫使林鄭特首正式宣佈撤回修例案。儘管特區政府沒有滿足示威者的其它四個訴求，但運動的慣性還在持續，網民和市民的士氣仍維持一定的溫度，“五大訴求缺一不可”的共識仍在發酵，下一步的博弈會出現多種場景。這次運動有別於“雨傘運動”的主要特點是：勇武和暴力程度更高，形式更加多樣化，組織更加精密化，靈活性更大，支持面更廣。經過前段時間的多次與警方防線的對峙和衝擊，產生了沒有人命死亡但煉獄般火爆程度相當的場面，軟暴力、硬暴力與和理非結合的遍地開花現象使當局一時無法適應，而運動產生的震撼被國際媒體廣泛報道，香港成為了國際關注點，隨之而來的香港經濟受到波及，旅遊業、零售業、酒店業和貿易物流業遭到嚴重衝擊，失業情況加重，預計有100萬人受到失業威脅。建制陣營的悲情訴說，目的只是力圖使沉默大多數驚醒而參與“止暴制亂”，但並沒有觸及示威者和反對派的要害。事實上，示威者正是需要這種效果，這種“攬炒”（魚死網破）的效果，因為如果沒有這種現象出現，便不能引起港府的重視，不能吸引國際的目光，不能得到西方的政治支援。雖然大多數民意支持反修例，反暴力，但民主派認為，暫時的混亂和經濟受損是香港需要經歷的陣痛，否則難以削弱建制力量幾年來的壓制優勢，難以為香港突破政改瓶頸提供契機，也就是為了香港人的長遠利益作出的短暫犧牲。早前參與遊行的百萬香港人，一方面希望香港維持安定局面，一方面又反對林鄭和中央政府的諸項政策，因此對於示威者的激進行為給予理解甚至支持，眼看運動走向激烈對抗，有可能處於“緊急法”實施的邊緣，民意逐漸偏向和理非的抗爭模式，不支持示威者擾亂公共秩序，也不願意看到更多的青年學生與警方拼命、受傷、被捕。因此，運動的走向隨之朝多元化發展，形成了目前和理非加勇武，百花齊放，創意抗爭的“戰略相持態勢”。網民和市民發明了多種表達和抗爭模式，例如人鏈燈光、多場所集結、合唱“光復香港時代革命”歌曲、連儂墻、遊行、外訪、罷課、研討會、圍堵警署等形形色色的活動，走向多元模式，間歇性發起少數人的游擊暴力，維持火候，加劇當局的神經緊張。原來示威者期待激進的衝突可以刺激特區和中央政府，令解放軍出動，完成毀滅一國兩制和香港聲譽的任務，但是政府方面沒有上當，而是加強了警力，升級了鎮壓，在消耗戰中逐步削弱示威者的戰力。因此示威者調整了戰術，在多元化反制上動腦筋。在市民憂慮“緊急法”實施的時候，示威者採取邊緣操作，臨界點作戰，既不給政府升級鎮壓製造藉口，又不讓運動走向式微，犧牲在政府的拖延戰術中。反對派認為，多元化的抗爭藝術可以保住原有的民意支持，直到11月底的區議會選舉到來，民主派將會借運動之勢取得勝選優勢。許多民主派核心人物認為，隨著10月1日國慶節的到來，香港反修例衍生的爭民主抗爭將會出現新一波高潮，有大事發生，其中，9月15日由民陣爭取的大遊行受到警方反對後，會如何演繹，值得關注，而這一天的市民動向則是國慶日另一波大動作的參考指標。<!–[if 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locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="List Paragraph" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Quote" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Intense Quote" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 1" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 2" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 3" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 4" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 5" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Shading Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Light Grid Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Dark List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> <w:LsdException locked="false" priority="99" semihidden="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6" ></w:LsdException> </w:LatentStyles></xml><![endif]–>