“双十一”又卖疯了 谁说中国经济在下行?

<div> <span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'>11月12日零点整,2019年&#8220;双十一&#8221;购物节落下帷幕。阿里巴巴的实时交易数据显示,今年天猫&#8220;双十一&#8221;的总成交额达到2684亿元人民</span><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'>币,比去年同日高出四分之一。都说中国经济在下行、物价在攀升,为什么一年一度的购物狂欢今年反而闹得更欢了呢?自由亚洲电台记者家傲,邀请了中国金融学者贺江兵、旅美经济学者秦伟平、以及现居美国的自媒体人刘大圣,就今年&#8220;双十一&#8221;强劲的销售数据进行了讨论。</span><strong></strong><em></em><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">记者:数据显示,各大电商今年&#8220;双十一&#8221;的销售表现创下新高。阿里巴巴旗下的天猫只用了64分钟,就突破了1000亿元人民币的成交额,较前一年缩短了约43分钟。苏宁易购零点后一小时的订单量比去年增长了近九成。贺江兵先生,这些数据出乎您意料了吗?</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">贺江兵:这并没有出乎我的意料。因为&#8220;双十一&#8221;持续了很多年了,无论是商家、还是电商平台,都为此做好了充分准备。现在基本上都不用宣传&#8220;双十一&#8221;了,所以有这样的数据并不让我感到意外。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">记者:秦伟平先生,这些可观的数据出乎您意料了吗?</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">秦伟平:我对这些数据的真实性(存疑)。各大电商平台和品牌商是否存在刷单行为,我还是表示怀疑的。总体来说,我没有什么大的疑问,就是针对数据的真实性还有些疑问。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></p><div style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; height: auto; letter-spacing: normal; margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 20px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 549px; word-spacing: 0px;"> <div style="max-width: 100%; width: 549px;"> <img title="一幅中国双十一购物狂欢节的广告(Public Domain)" style="height: auto; margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; padding-bottom: 20px; width: 100%;" alt="一幅中国双十一购物狂欢节的广告(Public Domain)" src="https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/hc-11112019113836.html/yt1111b.jpg" /> </div> <div style="box-sizing: border-box; float: left; font-size: 12px; font-style: italic; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: -6px; max-width: 100%; padding-bottom: 7px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 10px; padding-top: 5px; width: 100%;"> <span style="width: 549px;">一幅中国双十一购物狂欢节的广告(Public Domain)</span> </div> <div id="zoomattribute" style="margin: 0px; border-image: none; top: 0px; width: 100%; height: auto; color: #333333; font-size: 10px; vertical-align: middle; position: relative; max-width: 100%; float: right;"> <a title="一幅中国双十一购物狂欢节的广告(Public Domain)" style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/hc-11112019113836.html/yt1111b.jpg"> <img style="border-bottom-color: currentColor; border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: currentColor; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: currentColor; border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: currentColor; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; float: right; height: auto; margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; padding-bottom: 20px; vertical-align: top; width: 18px;" src="https://www.rfa.org/rfa_resources/graphics/icon-zoom.png" alt="" /> </a> </div> </div><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><strong>为什么中国人还在拼命买?</strong></p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">记者:贺江兵先生,众所周知,中国经济正在明显下行,通货膨胀也在增高。在这样的情况下,为什么中国广大消费者&#8220;买买买&#8221;的势头仍然不减反增呢?</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">贺江兵:这是合理的。有个著名的经济学现象叫做&#8220;口红效应&#8221;,就是说在经济萧条时期,口红会热销。廉价的奢侈品会畅销,物美价廉或者打折的东西也会卖得比较快,大家都想买便宜货。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">&#8220;双十一&#8221;这天(商家)的确在优惠。我今天也网购了,买了一台65寸的TCL电视。它平常的售价是4000元,今天才3300多元,省了650元钱。我今天还在天猫上注意到,这家店今天卖了3000台相同产品。也就是说,光这一个型号的电视就卖了900万元。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">记者:秦伟平先生,您对此怎么看?</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">秦伟平:在我看来,(消费势头)并没有不减反增。&#8220;双十一&#8221;相当于中国的购物节,它把前后半个月所有的销量在这一天当中呈现出来。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">可以这么讲,在&#8220;双十一&#8221;之前的半个月,网络销售一直处于相对冷清的状态,大家都在等那一天的大促销。那&#8220;双十一&#8221;过后的半个月,网络上基本也没什么销量。这从传统经验和消费者心态方面都可以表现出来。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">因此,这一天销量的井喷并不能代表中国消费者的购买力非常强,或是与经济下行的数据不吻合。这实际上是一个月的销量体现在了一天的数据上,仅此而已。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">另外,我认为这反而是实体经济的一个写照。中国的实体经济的确非常惨淡,大家希望通过这一天的购物优惠来减少消费支出,尽可能地满足自己的消费需求,而这可能会让实体经济雪上加霜。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><strong>&#8220;双十一&#8221;成了一种文化</strong></p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">记者:刘大圣先生,作为一名刚来美国不久的中国年轻人,您认为大陆的同龄人为什么这么热衷&#8220;双十一&#8221;购物呢?</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">刘大圣:首先是因为便宜。我在中国上大学时,我的同班同学和室友会提前半个月,就把11月份想买的东西定好了,我们就坐等&#8220;双十一&#8221;的到来。那一天的东西确实会相当便宜。根据我的了解,一般情况下会(比平时)便宜两成左右。当然,我的一些同学推测,一些淘宝商家可能先提了价之后再降价,这可能也是中国的一个商业规则吧。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">但是我觉得&#8220;双十一&#8221;更像是一个文化现象。&#8220;双十一&#8221;原来在中国叫&#8220;光棍节&#8221;。在我上大学的2013年,大家突然间把&#8220;光棍节&#8221;变成了一个购物节。大家毕竟是大学生,可能内心也很空虚。从那时起,&#8220;双十一&#8221;就逐渐成为一个文化现象了。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><strong>学者:销量造假大有可能</strong></p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">记者:秦伟平先生,刚才您提到了销量造假的可能性。不光您这么认为,我也看到有其他舆论也有这种怀疑。您为什么怀疑销量数据呢?</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">秦伟平:这是中国网络销售市场长期存在的一个问题。不管是对于品牌商来说、电商平台来说、还是政府统计部门来说,把品牌销量和网络销售数据维持在一个高速增长的状态有利于营造一个良好氛围。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">也就是说,让消费者觉得这个品牌卖得非常好,卖得好肯定是因为它的性价比或竞争力高,这可以吸引更多的消费者去购买。对于天猫这样的电商平台来说也是同理。这个平台好,商家和消费者都会去那里做买卖。对于政府有关部门来说,不是说经济不好吗,但是我们的网络消费每年都在增长啊。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">(数据造假)会造成这种错觉。从商业角度来说,他们是有共同利益的。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">记者:秦伟平先生,&#8220;双十一&#8221;购物节越来越受国外品牌的重视。在今年的天猫&#8220;双十一&#8221;晚会上,更有美国当红女星泰勒&#8226;斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)压轴献唱。今年&#8220;双十一&#8221;预计约有2万多家国际商家提供折扣等优惠活动。您认为&#8220;双十一&#8221;将带来怎样的全球性影响?</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">秦伟平:我觉得中国的&#8220;双十一&#8221;和美国的&#8220;黑色星期五&#8221;(Black Friday)一样,可能会成为一个越来越成熟的商业模式。在美国的&#8220;黑色星期五&#8221;,商家都知道这是一个很好的促销时机。我相信,&#8220;双十一&#8221;未来可能就会成为中国的&#8220;黑色星期五&#8221;。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">国际品牌如果有意在中国市场大力发展的话,一定不会错过这个机会。当然,我们希望&#8220;双十一&#8221;市场能够更加健康的发展。在鼓励理性消费的前提下,中国消费市场的潜力还是非常大的。</p><span style='display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",微软雅黑,"STHeiti",华文黑体,"SimSun",宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'> </span><p style="color: #333333; font-family: &amp;quot;Microsoft YaHei&amp;quot;,微软雅黑,&amp;quot;STHeiti&amp;quot;,华文黑体,&amp;quot;SimSun&amp;quot;,宋体,sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">记者:家傲&nbsp; 责编:申铧&nbsp; 网编:洪伟</p>&nbsp;</div><div> </div>