肺炎疫情如何令中国“崛起大国”的光环黯然失色

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line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">重疾老人绝望中从高处一跃而下,无人照看的儿童饿死</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">在家,</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">因投医无门病死街头的无名患者</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">,&nbsp;</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">缺乏防护设备的医护在社交媒体上呐喊求助。这些既不是中国历史书里的记载</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">,</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">也不是灾难电影的场景</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">,</strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">而是新冠疫情暴发后,发生在当代中国的惨剧。</strong></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">新型冠状病毒引发的肺炎被世卫组织命名为COVID-19。在短短两个多月内,它从中国中部城市武汉蔓延到了全中国和全球100多个国家,导致中国内8万多人感染,3000余人死亡。感染人数和死亡人数远超2003年的SARS(非典/沙士)疫情。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">在这场与病毒的斗争中,武汉等多地史无前例地被封锁近两个月,让这个1000多万的大都市变成&#8220;鬼城&#8221;,绝望之城;全国范围内,几乎所有的娱乐场所关门、学校停课。甚至,中国最重要的年度会议&#8220;两会&#8221;四十多年来首次被迫延期举行。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">这仿佛与数月前的场景形成天壤之别。去年10月,中国庆祝中共统治下的国家建国70周年,伴随着大街小巷一片欢腾祥和和阅兵仪式上昂首挺胸的士兵,最高领导人习近平自豪地向数亿民众宣告,&#8220;没有任何力量再能撼动国家的地位。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">新冠病毒肆虐下,突如其来一场危机似乎一夜间把这个崛起的大国打回了原形, 让其僵化的官僚体制,严苛的信息管控等弊端暴露无遗,虚高的强国形象在公众眼中瞬间倒下,公共卫生系统应急预警机制形同虚设。</p><figure style="border: 0px; 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max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 976px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">EMPICS</span></span></figure><h2>错失良机</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">伴随官方通报的确诊病例数字每日不断刷低,中国国家卫健委3月12日宣称,本轮疫情本土流行高峰已经过去。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">几乎同一时间点,中共领导人习近平疫情爆发两个多月来首次来到武汉。这期间,他虽屡屡强调自己是这场&#8220;战疫&#8221;斗争的总指挥,却鲜少出现在公众视野中。如今,中国当局越来越相信本国的疫情高峰已经过去,出现在媒体镜头前的习近平的神情貌似也轻松了不少。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但这次疫情全面暴露了中共体制中僵化的官僚制度及由此让中国社会所付出的巨大代价。种种迹象表明,僵化的官僚制度使得中国在这次疫情中错过了最初防控疾病的最佳时机。一个显著的例子便是疫情初起时上报系统的混乱与中断。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">在2003年SARS疫情过后,中国花费数亿元资金建立起&#8220;中国传染病疫情和突发公共卫生事件网络直报系统&#8221;,意在使得地方上突发出现的新疫情在出现最初数小时内便可直接上报至中国疾控中心。这一系统本应在这次发挥早期预警采取措施的作用。但在疫情防控至关重要的初发阶段,这个系统一度因为行政介入被晾在一旁。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">内地媒体《中国青年报》调查发现,12月底疫情发端时,武汉医院采集到的病例样本最早并未上报给中国疾控中心,而是送往民营机构检测,直到1月2日疾控中心才收到第一份来自武汉的样本。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">《中青报》报道中引述消息人士表述称,1月11日左右,武汉卫生部门官员开始指示当地医院对不明原因肺炎病例要&#8220;慎重上报&#8221;,经逐级检测并在湖北省卫健委同意后才可以上报,之后多日武汉医疗系统停止使用这一内部系统上报肺炎疫情,而武汉卫健委的官方通报中,1月6日至17日均无新增病例。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国疾控中心副主任向媒体表示,武汉是在中国国家卫健委介入调查并要求直报后才开始上报病例的,但中间一段时间因为&#8220;不知道什么原因&#8221;停了下来。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2020/Mar/3212020WUHAN2.jpg" width="676" height="450" alt="" /><br /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">武汉</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">这段时间恰好正值湖北省&#8220;两会&#8221;召开期间。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">每年三月份的&#8220;两会&#8221;是中国最重要的年度政治活动之一,对维护中国领导人和共产党的形象地位至关重要。 各级地方政府会召开本地&#8220;两会&#8221;,为在北京召开的&#8220;全国两会&#8221;做好铺垫。这期间,全国的&#8220;维稳&#8221;措施升级,对所谓的负面新闻压制不断。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">1月6日至17日期间,武汉市与湖北省相继召开&#8220;两会&#8221;,在官方媒体对会议的报道中,没有见到任何官员有提到与疫情有关事宜。湖北&#8220;两会&#8221;闭幕后,武汉卫健委才分别在18日与20日两次通报新增病例百余例,但这个数据的真实性仍然受到怀疑。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">由多名中国疾控中心研究人员发表的论文显示,1月22日之前,不仅在武汉,整个湖北已有数百人发病。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px 165.16px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; max-width: 640px;"><div style="color: inherit; 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vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">许多民众认为,武汉与湖北官员的&#8220;不作为&#8221;使得湖北没能及时对疫情作出反应,错过了时机。但更深层次的原因在于,多年来中国官场上缺乏监督,&#8220;只对上负责不对下负责&#8221;的风格在各级机构根深蒂固,这种情况下,官员的主动性与能动性都受到打击。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">武汉市长周先旺曾在接受采访时承认,早期信息披露滞后的是因为需要得到&#8220;中央授权&#8221;。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">斯坦福大学社会学教授周雪光指出,中国体制近年来愈发&#8220;刚性&#8221;,制度约束越来越多,官员自主能动性越来越小。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">&#8220;这个刚性体制导致了两个可能的问题:第一,自下而上的信息流通困难;第二,启动应急对策的时间滞后,&#8221;他在与BBC中文的专访中表示。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">疫情变得一发不可收之际,1月20习近平作出回应,三天后,武汉封城。在中共中央政治局常务委员会2月3日召开的会议上,习近平提出,这次疫情是对中国治理体系和能力的&#8220;一次大考&#8221;。之后他接连撤换湖北及武汉的&#8220;一把手&#8221;官员,选择自己信任的政法系统官员接替,以期更稳妥推进当地工作进行,缓解民怨。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但没有权力的监督和制衡,僵化的体制很难得到结构性改变,新的问题只会层出不穷。湖北及武汉领导班子换血后,武汉&#8220;朝令夕改&#8221;的&#8220;出城令&#8221;显示地方权力中空,管理混乱;中国副总理孙春兰视察居民区时,住户高喊"假的,全都是假的",显示民意的不满仍然强烈;在习近平视察武汉当天,一篇讲述最早向身边人提醒异常的武汉医生经历的文章在中国被大肆封锁,但网民们把文章翻译成不同文字版本,甚至包括emoji与甲骨文,只为让文章可以不断传播,显示民众对高压管理体制的愤慨与不平。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="《中青报》报道中引述消息人士表述称,。" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/C4C8/production/_111367305_40912cc8-71ac-4cd1-94e8-03069f33444a.jpg" width="1024" height="683" data-highest-encountered-width="976" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 976px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">ZHANG PENG/LIGHTROCKET VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">中国天津一家空空荡荡的购物中心</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">疫情逐渐平稳后,习近平的公开发言显示,这将又是一次记入中共历史的&#8220;胜利&#8221;。在中共期刊《求是》披露的习近平于2月16日的内容中他指出,中共对这次疫情的&#8220;判断是准确的,各项工作部署是及时的,采取的举措也是有效的&#8221;。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">不可否认,举国体制的行动力使得中国的隔离政策可以顺利实施,对疫情中后期的防治起到了重要作用。但如果因此让习近平领导的中共在加强管控的路上越走越远,可能会带来更加严重的灾难。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">周雪光称,如果此次疫情导致的社会不满情绪使得中共领导人得出要进一步加强管控体制的结论,将会是一件&#8220;非常不幸的事情&#8221;。他对BBC中文表示,&#8220;若是不去仔细分析官僚体制的政治逻辑与民众生存逻辑是否冲突的话,那就会导致巨大的灾难。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">清华大学社会学家郭于华在此前与BBC的采访中表示,因为权力缺乏制衡,目前的体制&#8220;很难有任何改变&#8221;。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="." src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/4829/production/_111337481_timeline.png" width="641" height="2022" data-highest-encountered-width="976" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 976px; display: block;" /></span></figure><h2>突然倒下的大国形象</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">2018年3月2日, 记录片《厉害了,我的国》在中国各大院线高调上映,受到热议。 該片记录了习近平于2012年上任以来,中国共产党带领中国所取得的成绩。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">在习的&#8220;实现中华民族伟大复兴&#8221;的&#8220;中国梦&#8221;构想下,中国在经济、国防、外交等各方面展开雄心勃勃的战略计划,包括涵盖上百个国家和地区的&#8220;一带一路&#8221;倡议,以及对外宣称&#8220;人类命运共同体&#8221;的价值观。力图告诉世界,与中国拉进关系将促进世界进步。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但这些战略在国际上备受质疑,比如可能导致债务危机,以及输出威权意识等。新冠病毒的全球蔓延,再次引发国际社会"恐中"的讨论,甚至衍生出全球针对华人乃至亚裔人群的歧视。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">新冠肺炎疫情在中国以外多国蔓延,亚洲的日本、韩国,欧洲的意大利,中东的伊朗近期都遭到重灾。旅居海外的华人群体遭到排斥,在民粹主义浪潮的裹挟下中国人被等同于&#8220;病毒&#8221;,甚至&#8220;生物武器&#8221;。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">1月底,韩国总统府青瓦台官方网站出现一则请愿书,题为&#8220;请禁止中国人入境&#8221;,不到一个星期,请愿书获得超过53万人联署。在美国,有华裔因戴口罩而受到滋扰甚至殴打。在澳大利亚,一些华人孩童被同学称"携带病毒"受到欺凌。在德国,有医生拒绝给中国病人看病。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">与中国大陆一河之隔的香港,也有餐厅张贴"不欢迎大陆客"的通知。香港社区组织协会的调查显示,截至3月,这样的店铺超过上百间。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px 165.16px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; max-width: 640px;"><div style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; 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color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 0px 360px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px;"><div id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-2wrp" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 360px; vertical-align: baseline; z-index: 999; position: relative; height: 0px; width: 640px;"><iframe id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-2" name="smphtml5iframemedia-player-2" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://emp.bbc.com/emp/SMPj/2.31.5/iframe.html" allow="autoplay" title="因肤色不同遭袭击的亚裔留学生" style="border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 640px; height: 360px;"></iframe></div></figure></div><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div></div></div></div></div><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;">因肤色不同遭袭击的亚裔留学生</figcaption></figure><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 165.16px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; 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line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">长期观察中国社会运动的独立政治学者吴强将这次由新冠病毒带来的排华现象,跟19世纪70年代华工在美国西部铁路大开发中掀起的排华运动做比较。当时导致排华的导火索是麻风病和霍乱,而根源则与华工廉价的苦力形象和自我隔离的生活方式有关。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">相比近年来,中国在非洲、南美等地的&#8220;一带一路&#8221;项目仍然以华人聚集为主,没有融入当地社会。而中国人吃甲鱼等野生动物的习惯与当地饮食方式格格不入。吴强说,&#8220;这种自我隔离与1870年代没有太大变化,是一种新苦力主义的形象。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">另外,中国在过去十年的对外宣传中,不断强化种族纽带,给海外中国人一种与&#8220;祖国一刻不能分离&#8221;的刻板印象。吴强认为,在习近平治理下的中国,这种纽带被加强。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">&#8220;中国正在强化民族主义符号,使得华人在海外成为对外宣传的牺牲品,成为新冠病毒的代表者。&#8221;吴强说。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">近几个星期以来,官方报道的病例确诊人数有所减少。为了重塑形象,宣传攻势随之展开,力图让公众认为防控措施快速有利,中国再次为&#8220;人类命运共同体&#8221;付出&#8220;大国担当&#8221;。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">世卫组织总干事谭德塞(Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus)赞赏中国在防控方面采取的措施,称这些措施&#8220;减慢了(病毒)向世界蔓延的速度&#8221;。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">然而观察者认为,国际社会并没有对中国持非常正面的评价。熟悉东亚事务的台湾中央研究院近代史研究所前副研究员林泉忠对BBC中文说,&#8220;中国已经被批评,这是借WHO总干事之口,令大家相信中国正在贡献世界。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">《纽约时报》引述美国外交关系协会亚洲部主任易明(Elizabeth Economy)称,重塑形象似乎是&#8220;习近平为推卸责任,避免国际社会要求坦白事实的孤注一掷之举&#8221;。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">对中国的批评集中于当局在疫情爆发初期隐瞒病情,不仅不尊重一线医生如李文亮等人的提醒,还以&#8220;发布不实言论&#8221;之由对他们提出警示和训诫,酿成病毒大范围扩散的悲剧。暴露出中共体制缺乏信息透明的弊病。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">林泉忠说,&#8220;疫情前期的掩盖已经成为基本共识,如果中国官方继续不承认事实,将跟世界的理解越走越远,那么中国要树立抗疫有功的形象将越来越困难。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">疫情爆发已经令国际社会开始思考,是否与中国走得越近,得益越多。在台湾,国民党背靠中国发展经济的论述受到打击。民意认为,民进党防疫有功。同时,北京去年7月停止的大陆赴台湾自由行在一定程度上成就了抗疫。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">林泉忠说,&#8220;台湾社会开始思索,大陆游客来不了了,台湾有没有变得更差?假如没有禁止大陆游客,对台湾就一定是好事吗?虽然这需要从长远来思考,但是的确很多台湾人已经开始这样想。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">他说,&#8220;不只是两岸关系,疫情拖得越长,中国要重新推进与世界的关系,难度越大。不太乐观的势头已经出现,是否会进一步恶化,要看疫情将如何发展,中国与外界的隔离会延续多久,以及扩大到何种程度。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">除此之外,此次新冠病毒疫情爆发还给中共当权者带来了更大的压力。《中国如何跳出贫困陷阱》一书的作者、密歇根大学政治学教授洪源远在国际评论网站Project Syndicate上写道,随着疫情持续,中国经济将继续走衰,中国中小企业倒闭、工人失业,并且加剧通货膨胀。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">基于这些原因,洪源远认为,自上而下的中央集权将不再会行之有效。她说,&#8220;已经很清楚,疫情爆发后,中国的政治和治理方式将有所不同。习近平及其支持者坚持集权为德的神话已经破灭。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">吴强也赞同中共政权面临严重危机。他说,&#8220;中国之前的战略扩张会因为病毒带来的内部危机而产生变化。在某种意义上讲,大跃进式的扩张已经结束了。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; 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color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 0px 360px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px;"><div id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-3wrp" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 360px; vertical-align: baseline; z-index: 999; position: relative; height: 0px; width: 640px;"><iframe id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-3" name="smphtml5iframemedia-player-3" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://emp.bbc.com/emp/SMPj/2.31.5/iframe.html" allow="autoplay" title="肺炎疫情微纪录片:武汉&#8220;封城&#8221;之后" style="border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 640px; height: 360px;"></iframe></div></figure></div><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div></div></div></div></div><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;">肺炎疫情微纪录片:武汉&#8220;封城&#8221;之后</figcaption></figure><h2>被边缘化的疾控中心</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国官方对于医护感染新冠病毒的数据更新停留在2月中旬。约1716名医护人员被新冠病毒感染,6人去世。其中包括早期披露疫情被"训诫"后,重回一线感染病毒去世的医生李文亮。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">李文亮被称为&#8220;疫情吹哨人&#8221;。他的离世引发公众对疫情信息披露和一线医生在公共卫生事件中权力的讨论。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国现有《传染病防治法》里明确规定,疫情的上报是自下而上的程序。即官方用词里的&#8220;内部知情期&#8221;,疫情信息上报给医疗机构或者疾控中心。疾控中心要核实信息,并报告给当地卫生行政部门,然后信息被报告给当地政府,同时上报上级卫生行政部门和国务院卫生行政部门。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">而疫情的通报则是自上而下。由中国国务院向下层层通报疫情至医疗机构或者个人。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">从武汉卫健委第一次公布疫情的2019年12月31日到武汉宣布封城的2020年1月23日,中国用了24天,三周多的时间。据中国媒体的报道和学术团队的论文指向,武汉卫健委至少在公布疫情前的两周已经接到上报的疫情。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国国务院医改办综合医改试点省联系专家杨金侠对BBC中文表示,中国的疾控中心属于事业单位,成立11个月后2003年非典爆发。通过这次新冠疫情发现,疾控中心在疫情应对中可能有一些空间可能被约束,疾控中心的权力需要重新界定。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">杨金侠也提到,医疗机构发现不明发热病例上报给疾控中心,再由疾控中心确诊,这中间有一些环节会耽误时间。她认为医疗机构的权限需要调整。比如根据具体临床诊断和治疗的一些具体情况,(医疗机构/医生)可以拥有更多发言权。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">浙江大学公共卫生学院院长吴息凤也称,政府要提升公共卫生和疾病防控系统在中国国家卫生体系中的功能定位。疾控中心可参照专业性的行政机构管理,赋予对外发布公共卫生领域内的相关信息和数据的权利,与其它卫生部门一起参与决策,提高信息的时效性和有效性。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="." src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/BD59/production/_111337484_patientsprofile.png" width="641" height="1035" data-highest-encountered-width="976" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 976px; display: block;" /></span></figure><h2>中国还是被打了一个&#8220;措手不及&#8221;</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">疫情披露的迟缓不是唯一的问题。疫情暴露出的中国公共卫生系统应急预警机制等问题已是公开的秘密。中国国家主席习近平在3月1日出版的《求是》杂志明确指出要改革完善疾病预防控制体系,要健全公共卫生服务体系。加强公共卫生队伍建设。持续加强全科医生培养、分级诊疗等制度建设。强化风险意识,完善公共卫生重大风险研判、评估、决策、防控协同机制。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">事实上中国从2003年的非典就开始着手建立公共卫生应急管理制度。时任国务院总理的温家宝就在防非会议上强调过,用词也大同小异:要建设突发公卫反应机制、提高预警能力……</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">过去的十几年中国政府加大卫生支出力度。截止2018年,中国政府卫生支出从1117亿元增至16339亿元。但只占中国国内生产总值的1.82%。中国媒体《澎湃新闻》称,这个占比与欧美发达国家水平仍有较大差距,低于巴西和南非等国。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国问题学者胡星斗在社交媒体上说中国政府不重视医疗卫生事业投资的原因包括,中国政绩制度造成(官员)只重表面的硬件投入的政绩,不重视看不见的民生投入;官员的官帽子是上面给的,不是民众给的。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">杨金侠曾在2009年评估过世界银行赠款给中国两个省份做H1N1大流行病的防控能力建设项目,她说防控能力建设包括应急预案中的政府成立应急部门、医疗机构和疾控机构的配合、銜接和风险沟通。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但H1N1大流行病之后,她说"这些年可能因为没有新的疫情发生,可能慢慢的就不再放在突出的位置上。她打比方说:&#8220;人一旦生病了,你就会很小心去注意和保健,那身体健康之后你可能就忘记了。&#8221;</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">她解释称风险沟通机制指的是,如果疫情发生,哪个部门有权力发布疫情信息,通过什么渠道发布信息以及各部门和医疗机构、媒体如何配合的问题。风险沟通机制不需过多财政投入,但需要各部门的常规配合和演练。应急预案需要明确各部门职责,并进行法律和制度规范。法律规范是将其写进中国的《传染病防治法》和制度上需要政府通过文件确定下来。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">另一个需要政府做的,是防疫物资的储备。疫情发生后中国的口罩缺口庞大,中国的媒体质疑为何没有足够的储备。中国工信部曾解释称,因为口罩有效期问题,在非特殊情况时期,不会有大量的囤货库存。而对于N95口罩、防护服等,医院通常也不会大量储备。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">杨金侠曾建议,这些储备物资应该由国家来做,当企业不愿意供应时,政府要承包起来。&#8220;如果评估疫情造成的损失跟这个储备带来的损失相比的话,还是值得去做。&#8221; 中国官媒《光明日报》2月初的一篇文章中认为,中国应急生产能力储备政策有待完善。出现政府对企业的资金补贴不到位、补偿不合理等问题。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">为了稳定金融市场注入巨额资金,希望给市场一颗&#8220;定心丸&#8221;,中国人民银行于2月3日动用1.2万亿人民币救市。而受疫情影响的微小企业、旅游业、酒店业等行业的损失更是惨重。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, &quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; margin-right: 165.16px; margin-left: 165.16px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">胡星斗表示,中国各地目前出台促进经济增长的措施,都是铁路地铁投资等方面,仍然没有重视医疗卫生和民生健康!如果不改变中国的医疗卫生落后的状况,不加大投资,不提高医生待遇,不出台促进医疗卫生事业发展的政策法律,那么未来中国再次面临疫情时,仍然可能形成人道灾难。</p><div></div></div>