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border-style: none;" /></a></span> </div><div><p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">主持人：陈奎德</span> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">座谈人：胡平先生：</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">《北京之春》荣誉主编</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong><span style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt;">一、</span> <span style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt;">港版国安法何以突兀降临？</span></strong></p> <p> </p> <p>1<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">疫情大流行渐近尾声，追责调查之浪迎面而来，北京需转移焦点，摆脱孤立</span></p> <p> </p> <p>2<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">去年推出“送中修例”以及之后的区议会选举中共惨败</span></p> <p> </p> <p>3<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">未雨绸缪，以保证今年九月的立法会选举不至于发生如去年的败绩</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong><span style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt;">二、</span> <span style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt;">中共自贸易战和疫情以来，内外交困四面楚歌，已处颓势守势，何以反向而行，在港、台、南海、印度…</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">..</span><span style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt;">却四面出击，未见妥协？</span></strong></p> <p> </p> <p>1<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">习的赌徒心态</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">习的心理是虱多不痒，债多不愁，学毛的</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">心态：乱云飞渡仍从容，企图用一招险棋来突破困局，转移视线。</span></p> <p> </p> <p>2<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">习的选择性视野</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">此外，习也认为自己也有牌，他只愿意看到自己的有利方面：他认为抗疫战争中，他赢特朗普败，且特朗普有选举压力，习没有，此为历史机会。</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong><span style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt;">三、</span> <span style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt;">各方对应中共豪赌的措施、底线及其可能效果</span></strong></p> <p> </p> <p>1<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">香港民主派、年轻学子和广大市民</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">上百万人级别的大游行——今年与去年相比的难度（警方不批准的可能性、镇压烈度都可能高于去年</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">罢工、罢课、罢市</span></p> <p> </p> <p>2<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">美国的反应：</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">取消</span>1992<span style="font-family:DengXian;">年的《香港政策法》</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">实施去年通过的《香港人权与民主法案》</span>,<span style="font-family:DengXian;">取消香港的特别关税地位</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">惩罚中共与港版国安法相关的高官</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">把中共的部分银行驱逐出全球美元结算体系</span></p> <p>……………</p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">美国反应的何种强度方能逼迫中共退缩？</span></p> <p> </p> <p>3<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">英国与欧日的反应：</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">英首相承诺接纳在港的约</span>30<span style="font-family:DengXian;">万海外英国公民</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">欧日跟进美英的可能性</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong><span style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt;">四、</span> <span style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt;">展望香港危机的前景</span></strong></p> <p> </p> <p>1<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">今日香港已成当年西柏林</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">柏林危机——政治判断与意志的较量：</span></p> <p> </p> <p>1948<span style="font-family:DengXian;">年</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">柏林空运救一城</span></p> <p> </p> <p>1961<span style="font-family:DengXian;">年柏林墙的矗立以及之后近</span>30<span style="font-family:DengXian;">年东柏林人的悲壮翻墙</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">柏林墙下的演讲：</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">肯尼迪：</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">“我是柏林人”</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-family:DengXian;">里根：“戈尓巴乔夫，请拆毁这堵墙”</span></p> <p> </p> <p>1989<span style="font-family:DengXian;">年，柏林墙倒</span></p> <p> </p> <p>2<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">吸取</span>1938<span style="font-family: DengXian;">年慕尼黑协定英法对德国让步的历史教训</span></p> <p> </p> <p>3<span style="font-family:DengXian;">）</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">习正在敲响香港丧钟，倘自由阵营退一步，则</span>180<span style="font-family:DengXian;">年的自由港灰飞烟灭</span></p> <p> </p> <p> </p> </div><div> </div><div> </div>