<div><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2020/Jun/625202025-5.jpg" width="650" height="365" alt="" /></div><div><span style="color: #768492; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; background-color: #ffffff;">美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平2019年6月在大阪召开的G20峰会上握手</span></div><div> </div><div><span style="box-sizing: inherit; text-transform: uppercase; float: left; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">华盛顿 — </span><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">早在美国承认中国是美国的竞争对手之前，中国就一直把美国视为最大的“对手（adversary）”。在美国国会下属的一个机构星期三（6月24日）举行的有关“中国如何看待与美国的战略竞争”听证会上，这几乎是在听证会上作证的专家们的一致意见。专家们说，在中国对外部安全和挑战进行评估时，美国总是最主要的因素。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">中共建制，“赶英超美”</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">加州大学圣迭戈分校全球政策与战略学院研究中国国际事务的教授巴里.诺顿（Barry J. Naughton）认为，中共从建政之初，就把美国当作最大的敌手。</p><div style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"></div><div style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 32px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 649.766px;"><div style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><twitter-widget id="twitter-widget-0" data-tweet-id="1275981295991033857" style="box-sizing: inherit; position: static; visibility: visible; display: block; transform: rotate(0deg); max-width: 100%; width: 550px; min-width: 220px; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><div data-twitter-event-id="0" style="max-height: 10000px; direction: ltr; background: 0px 0px; 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left: 0px; top: 0px; transition: all 0s ease 0s; width: 560px; height: 766px;"></div></div><div style="position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; overflow: hidden; z-index: -1; visibility: hidden;"><div style="position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; transition: all 0s ease 0s; width: 1100px; height: 1512.97px;"></div></div></div></div></twitter-widget></div></div></div><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">他在听证会上说： “中国领导人当然认为自己正在与美国进行经济、技术和战略的竞争。自1949年中华人民共和国成立以来，‘赶超’发达国家的动力在中国的决策中几乎一直保持不变。……”</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">诺顿在为听证会准备的书面材料中说， 毛泽东在1958年提出的“超英赶美“计划就是很好的证明。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">根据“超英赶美“的口号，中国的钢产量要在15年超过英国，50年赶上美国。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">诺顿说，对中国的绝大多数政策制定者都认为全球秩序是等级制的。美国是主导力量，是“老大哥”。中国是一个庞大且发展迅速的国家，将来，不可避免地会与“老大哥”发生冲突，争夺主导权，虽然这种冲突不一定是军事的。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">美中建交，功利之举</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">美中经济与安全审查委员会成员罗伊.坎普豪森(Roy Kamphausen)在听证会上说，中国与美国建交只是在战术上发生了改变，并没有改变“击败美国”的长期目标。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">他说：“实际上，美中两国是根本上的竞争关系的观点，对北京的领导人来说，并不是什么新鲜事。实际上，早在美国承认这种竞争正在进行之前，中国就一直致力于这个战略任务。北京认为，冷战期间，中美关系正常化只是短期的、战术上的转变，以应对苏联对中国构成的威胁。”</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">坎普豪森说，没有什么比周恩来1973年在美中和解刚开始的一番话更能体现美中建交对中国共产党的“功利作用”以及中共的长期目标了。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">坎普豪森说，在那次讲话中，周恩来引用了列宁《妥协论》中的话，必须区分把手枪和钱交给强盗，以减轻伤害， 以便最后消灭强盗的人和把钱和手抢交给强盗，以便共享赃物的人。坎普豪森说，在周恩来看来，美中建交属于第一种情况。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">在《妥协论》中，列宁主张， 碰到强盗，应交出手枪和汽车，减轻可能遭受的伤害，等到有朝一日有机会，把强盗统统消灭，手枪、汽车都收回。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">在美中建交之初，不仅周恩来，中共前领导人毛泽东也不止一次地援引《妥协论》强调与美国建交的必要性和功能性。</p><div style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 24px 32px 0px; padding: 0px; clear: left; width: 259.902px; float: left; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><figure style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><div style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 0px;"><img alt="1972年2月21日，美国总统尼克松和毛泽东在北京握手" src="https://gdb.voanews.com/32647191-529F-4110-AD0D-C3C048144998_w250_r0_s.jpg" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto; width: 259.902px; cursor: pointer;" /></div></div><figcaption style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #768492; font-size: 14px; padding-top: 8px; display: block; margin-bottom: 0px;">1972年2月21日，美国总统尼克松和毛泽东在北京握手</span></figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">坎普豪森认为，这显示，中国当时愿意与美国建交，是因为中国意识到自己很弱，等到有一天自己强大了，最终是要击败美国的。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">韬光养晦， 一脉相承</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">坎普豪森认为， 邓小平后来提出的“韬光养晦“的政策与毛泽东和周恩来与美国建交的做法一脉相承。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">加州大学圣迭戈分校教授诺顿在听证会上这样解释“韬光养晦”。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">他说：“邓小平执行了一种在国际事务上不冒头的外交政策，但是，他的‘韬光养晦’的主张暗示， 发展壮大后，有可能会要求收回来。”</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">邓小平是1989年底，中共血腥镇压天安门学生民主运动不久之后，中国外交处于基辛格访华以来前所未有的困境时，在几次谈话中提到“韬光养晦”的。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">后来，邓小平的这些讲话被概括所谓的28字对外关系战略方针，即“冷静观察、稳住阵脚、沉着应付、韬光养晦、善于守拙、决不当头、有所作为”，简称为“韬光养晦、有所作为”。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">在邓小平的带领下，中国接受并参与了美国领导的世界现行秩序。改革开放、接受市场经济概念、招商引资、加入世界贸易组织。中国经济由此飞速发展，到2010年时，中国超越日本，成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。同时，美中经济、贸易和文化也密切地交织在一起，成了前苏联解体后稳定美中关系的重要基石。邓小平之后的中共领导人江泽民和胡锦涛基本上也延续了“韬光养晦”的外交政策。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">但是， 坎普豪森认为，即便是在“韬光养晦”的“江胡时代”，中国也是将美国视为对手的。 江泽民和胡锦涛多次在讲话中强调，因为美国在国际上的霸权地位， 美国一直是中国在国际事务中的对手。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">美国研究机构CNA中国和印太安全事务部主任冯德威 （David Finkelstein）说，从中共在中国大陆建制开始，北京就显示了对美国的高度不信任，认为美国对中共怀有敌意。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">他说：“多年来，北京在战略和政治层面对美国的对华意图的评估显示了高度不信任，以对中共怀有敌意为假设。那些精通中国策略的人都熟悉北京这类判断。其中最主要的看法有：‘美国打算遏制中国；美国打算将中国西化，并分裂中国；而且美国将永远不会接受中共统治的合法性’等。”</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">冯德威说，在中共历来对外部安全和将来挑战的评估中，美国都是那个重要的因素。中国认为，美国是唯一有能力挫败帮助或是推进北京在国内和国外利益的力量。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">中华复兴，取代美国</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">2012年底，中共现任总书记习近平上台， 采取了所谓的“奋发有为”战略，完全放弃了邓小平的“韬光养晦”。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">《华盛顿邮报》前驻北京分社社长潘文（John Pomfret）认为，这从习近平上台之初参观中国国家博物馆的“复兴之路”就可以看出端倪。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">他在听证会上说： “2012年11月29日，在被任命为中国共产党新的总书记两周后，中共领导人习近平访问了天安门广场上庞大的中国国家博物馆。习近平和政治局七名常委参观了名为“复兴之路”的展览，这个展览的内容涉及鸦片战争到目前的中国历史。中国的新领导人正是在那儿透露了他的，也可以说是中国共产党的对美国的扭曲的观点。”</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">这个展览没有一个字提到为中国在二十世纪和二十一世纪的现代化作出贡献的任何西方商人、外交官和科学家。潘文认为，习近平在一个完全排外的展览上提出了中华民族伟大复兴的“中国梦”， 显示中国将要开始的对外部世界复杂应对，也显示了他对中美战略竞争关系的看法。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">2017年，中国与美国竞争的决心越加明显。在当年的中共19大报告上， 习近平提出中国日益走近世界舞台的中央、 中国要为解决人类问题贡献中国智慧和中国方案的说法。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; padding: 0px; color: #222f3a; font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;">另外，中国还把正在全球蔓延的新冠疫情当作推进中国体制的机会。在中国的疫情叙事中，中国声称威权体制在抗击疫情时优于西方的民主体制。</p> </div>