<div></div><div> </div><div><img src="/EditBackyard/EditorData/Photo/2020/Dec/1222020AC.jpeg" width="620" height="348" alt="" /> </div><div> <span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-style: italic; background-color: #ffffff;">山中无老虎，中共外交卡位忙（自由亚洲电台制图）</span></div><div> </div><div> </div><div><em> 点击下面 收听音频</em><div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #003366; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; background-color: #ffffff;"><div classname="audiojs" id="audiojs_wrapper0" style="box-sizing: border-box; width: calc(100% – 92px); height: 36px; float: left; font-family: monospace;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; float: left; margin: 5px 0px 0px 6px; padding: 0px 6px 0px 12px; color: #2f50a2; line-height: 25px !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 2px 0px 0px;">00:00</span>/<span style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2px;">00:00</span></div></div></div><span style="box-sizing: border-box; float: right; vertical-align: middle; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #003366; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, 华文黑体, SimSun, 宋体, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; background-color: #ffffff;"><a href="https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/zhuanlan/zhongguotoushi/ckd-12022020151520.html/@@stream" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: transparent; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: none;"><img src="https://www.rfa.org/++plone++rfa-resources/img/icon-listen.png" title="收听节目" alt="收听节目" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: initial; border-style: none; vertical-align: middle;" /> </a><a href="https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/zhuanlan/zhongguotoushi/ckd-12022020151520.html/@@download/audio_file" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: transparent; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: none;"><img src="https://www.rfa.org/++plone++rfa-resources/img/icon-download.png" title="下载声音" alt="下载声音" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: initial; border-style: none; vertical-align: middle;" /></a></span></div><div> </div><div> </div><div> </div><div> </div><div> </div><div><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;margin-left: 0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size: 11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333;letter-spacing: .15pt">主持人：陈奎德</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt"><br style="box-sizing: border-box" /> 座谈人：王丹博士，1989年中国学运领袖，《对话中国》所长</span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt"><strong style="font-size: 12pt;">一</strong>、<strong>美国权力交接空档，中共外交趁机填补</strong></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">中共企图通过国际组织以及针对个别国家，双管齐下，突破孤立处境</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">美国大选争执，北京借机突围</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> 1）</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">趁美国缺位，加紧部署或挤入国际组织或贸易协定区：</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">一改历来的冷淡态度，中共积极推动</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">15</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">国签署</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">RCEP </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">，建成所谓最大的自由贸易区。该协议排除美国在外，证明在华盛顿退缩之际，北京希望巩固其作为周边经济主导力量的形象。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">其实，</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">RCEP</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">的象征意义大于实际，而且东盟才是该组织的主导国。美国拥有全球最大的需求市场，仍旧是包括中国在内的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">RCEP</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">成员国要积极争取的对象。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">习近平在</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">APEC<span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">表示，中国将考虑加入《跨太平洋伙伴关系全面与进步协定》（</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">CPTPP</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">），这个巨大的区域性自由贸易协定曾在奥巴马政府时期由美国倡导，后来特朗普政府退出。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> 2）离间西方盟国：</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> <span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">拉日击澳</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">身处美国选举的空窗期，中共的策略是，以日本为突破口，极力拉拢；以澳大利亚为主目标，全力打击。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">北京研判，在失去了美国这个高科技的主要源泉后，在欧盟近日声称将与美国一起共同应对中共之后，以日本对中国市场仍留存的与中国市场的依存关系，以日本在</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt">CPTPP</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">中的主导地位，北京觉得唯有日本是必须而且可能拉拢为高科技来源国的。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">二、</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; color: #333333; letter-spacing: 0.15pt;">王毅访日</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> <span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12pt;">遭遇四个软钉子</span></span></span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">其总目标是：中国为其战略抢占先机，意图拉拢日本，避免美国联手日本对抗中国。</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">习近平访日问题</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">这次日方并不提及此话题。习近平原计划于今年春天访问日本，但疫情爆发后搁置计划。在此后中日两国高层对话中，外界都关注何时重启计划。但此次日本仍保持了有意味的沉默。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">中国加入</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">CPTPP </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">的问题</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">习近平在</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">APEC</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">表示，中国将考虑加入《跨太平洋伙伴关系全面与进步协定》</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">CPTPP</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">。（这个巨大的区域性自由贸易协定曾在奥巴马政府时期由美国倡导，其高门槛主要就是为中共而设，使之不得其门而入。后来特朗普政府退出。）实际上中共很想在此（美国不在内，而由日本主导的）空档期加入，而且习近平刚刚公开宣布了他的加入渴望。但日方对此不予理会，北京显然非常失落。其实，事实上，北京也根本达不到加入</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">CPTPP</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">的高门槛</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">(</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">如其不符市场经济地位，其对国企的补贴，信息交流的自由度，须达到零关税，零壁垒，零补贴<span style="box-sizing: border-box">……</span>)</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">本月早些时候，中国、日本、韩国等</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">15</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">个国家签署了《区域全面经济伙伴关系协议》（</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">RCEP</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">）</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">, </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">这是中日韩三国签署的首个自由贸易协定。北京想趁热打铁，趁美国未重新加入</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">TPP </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">前，抢先一步加入。但此算盘已然落空。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">钓鱼岛问题</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">菅义伟要求中国方面对中国海警船在钓鱼岛海域的活动加以对处。王毅建议：如果相互采取公务船以外船只不进入钓鱼岛周边海域的措施，事态应会得到改善。而日方实际控制着钓鱼岛，钓鱼岛也是日本渔民的渔场，王毅的建议意味着日本渔船不能进入日方宣称拥有主权并实行着实际管控的钓鱼岛海域，意味着改变现状，因此王毅的建议对日方来讲没有可行性，受到日方驳斥与拒绝。日本首相菅义伟</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">11</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">月</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">12</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">日在与拜登通电话表达祝贺时，拜登向其确认，《美日安保条约》第</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">5</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">条适用于尖阁诸岛的防卫。根据该条款，如果日本受到武力攻击，美日需共同应对。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; color: #333333; letter-spacing: 0.15pt;">王毅的小聪明碰了壁。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">中共企图破解或弱化美日澳印“亚洲小北约”问题</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">今年</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">10</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">月，美国、日本、澳大利亚和印度四国外长在东京举行安全对话会议，讨论了包括东中国海、南中国海在内的形势，强调推进“自由与开放的印太”，被认为是防堵中国的最新战略。中共对此极为恐惧。它对澳的贸易疯狂打压与攻击以及拉拢日本就是为破解美国的印太战略，弱化亚洲北约。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">但是，日本首相菅义伟和澳大利亚总理莫里森上周就签署《互惠准入协定》基本达成一致。这是两国在印太战略框架下达成的具有里程碑式的防务协定。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">近期日本民众对中国的观感极具恶化。根据一项</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt">11</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">月</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">17</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">日公布的数据，近</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">90%</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">的日本民众对中国的印象表示“不好”，比去年上升了五个百分点。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">总结以上四点，王毅访日基本上是铩羽而归，其正面成绩是微不足道的：为在明年的东京奥运会和残运会及</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt">2022</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">年在北京举行的冬季奥运会的成功合作达成共识。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12pt;"><strong>三、<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12pt;">中共全力打压澳大利亚，居心何在？</span></strong></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">目的在杀鸡儆猴，用中国市场做武器，警告那些抗拒中共霸凌的国家不要追随美国。</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">澳大利亚主要因首提对新冠疫情全球大流行调查追责，以及积极加入美日澳印安全同盟而开罪了中共。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">中共违反澳中“双边自由贸易协定”，对澳大利亚出产的葡萄酒实施制裁</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">中国政府近来针对澳大利亚的一系列“严打”行为，在国际间引起广泛关注。中方日前针对澳大利亚出产的葡萄酒端出的制裁措施</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt"> <span style="box-sizing: border-box">–要求厂家或出口商先要提供</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">107.1%</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">到</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">212.1%</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">不等的“保证金”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">- </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">更是“一石激起千层浪”。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">澳大利亚和中国之间于</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">2015</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">年签署了“双边自由贸易协定”。根据这项双边协定，澳大利亚出口到中国的葡萄酒，其关税将自</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">2019</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">年</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">1</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">月</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">1</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">日起，从过去的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">14%</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">到</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">20%</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">不等，降为零。中国政府</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">11</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">月</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">27</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">日发布的公文称“初步裁定”澳大利亚出口到中国的葡萄酒属于“倾销”行为，而且澳大利亚政府还在其中扮演了角色。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">对此，澳大利亚官员予以回绝，严正表明北京的行为“与中澳自由贸易协定以及世界贸易组织成员国之间达成的协议完全不符。”</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">对酒当歌</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> <span style="box-sizing: border-box">反击制裁</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">英国国际事务评论人士、泰晤士报专栏作家爱德华·卢卡斯</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt">(Edward Lucas)</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">本月早些时候在推特上发起了“买澳大利亚葡萄酒，抵抗专制”的“公民运动”。来自世界各地的推友对这一倡议反应颇为积极。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">很多关注香港自由的推友都对此表示赞赏。一位来自意大利的推友说，身为意大利人，很少看得上其他国家出产的葡萄酒，但是这回，不管怎么说，也要买回澳大利亚葡萄酒，喝上几盅。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">卢卡斯说：“其他国家也都在关注。你总不能一方面说‘我是和平崛起，从不跟任何人找麻烦’，而另一方面又威胁澳大利亚说，除非你改变政治体制、法制、外交政策、教育系统，以及其他社会运作方式，否则就别想跟我们有正常外交以及商业关系。在我看来，他们的所谓战狼外交，其功效，可以说是适得其反。”</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">中方的作为，不仅仅迫使澳大利亚意识到必须要减少对中国市场的依赖性，同时也让很多国家都意识到，无论是出口市场，还是产业链，都必须要开始多边化。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size: 11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333;letter-spacing: .15pt">11</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">月</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">23</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">日，澳大利亚媒体公开了中国驻澳大利亚使馆人员将一份标明中方对澳大利亚怀有的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">14</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">项不满的单子交给澳大利亚媒体，同时表明，澳大利亚与中方之间的贸易往来和政治都是连着的。”</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">澳大利亚国立大学国家安全学院院长洛瑞·梅德卡尔夫</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt">(Rory Medcalf)</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">就此置评，说中方这么做实际上是大大缩减了澳大利亚政府在政策制定上原本可能有的灵活空间。他说：“在我们国家，大家也是很要面子的。”</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">《金融时报》社论说，中方在处理澳大利亚问题上，开了一个很让人不安的先例。全球民主国家都应当密切关注这一局势的动态，并要做好准备，共同反制来自中方的压力。这篇社论还阐述，在中国政府如此咄咄逼人的态势下，各个民主国家要么团结起来，共同行动捍卫彼此，要么将会被各个击破。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; letter-spacing: 0.15pt;">澳大利亚参议员：执政与反对党团结一心</span></div><div> </div> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">澳大利亚参议院外交、国防、贸易议事委员会主席、来自工党的金伯丽·克琪英</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt">(Kimberley Kitching)</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">就澳中关系从墨尔本接受了美国之音的采访。她表示，澳大利亚的确是一个注重出口的国家；非常遗憾的是，过去几十年来，在出口对象方面，我们对某一个国家发展到如此依赖的程度。不过，她乐观地表示：这也恰恰是我们贸易多边化的开始。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">这位参议员还表示，在澳大利亚作为一个主权独立国家，绝不能允许外国政府以为他们可以任意改变“我们所秉持的价值和理念”这一点上，工党和目前执政的保守派自由党是完全一致的，议会当中其他一些小党和独立党派也无一例外。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">中国媒体《环球时报》威胁说，假如澳大利亚继续一意孤行，就不必企望中澳关系有改善的可能。“到那个时候，澳大利亚将会知道走向黑暗是什么样一种滋味。”</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">克琪英说：“假如有任何外国政府试图要将默默地服从作为贸易条件的话，那么，在澳大利亚全社会，他们所能找到的支持，可以说几乎是零。”</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">克琪英参议员同时也是新成立的“对华跨国议会联盟”</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; color:#333333;letter-spacing:.15pt">(Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China,</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">简称</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">IPAC)</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">澳大利亚代表团的两位主席成员之一。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size: 11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333;letter-spacing: .15pt">2018</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">到</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">2019</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">财政年度，中国是澳大利亚最大贸易伙伴国，澳中贸易大约占澳大利亚整体贸易的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">26%</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">，其他主要贸易伙伴国有日本、美国、韩国、新加坡和新西兰。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; color: #333333; letter-spacing: 0.15pt;"><strong>四、当下欧盟欲重振与美国的同盟，集中力量应对中国挑战</strong></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">欧盟呼吁华盛顿抓住机会建立一个全球联盟，应对中国在全球影响力上升带来的挑战。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">重建联盟</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt"> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">一份名为《欧盟</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">-</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">美国应对全球变革新议程》（</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">A new EU-US agenda for global change</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">）的文件，指出了欧盟对中国日益增长的影响力、以及削弱的跨大西洋关系有利于北京地缘政治目标的担忧。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">文件写道：“作为开放的民主社会和市场经济国家，欧盟和美国一致认同中国日益增长的国际自信心所带来的战略挑战，即使我们并不总是就解决这一问题的最佳方法达成共识。”</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">专家指出，这些共同的挑战致使欧美对华政策思路的趋同，在美国政府有意重建与欧盟关系之际，美欧加强合作将更有力地回击中国的不良行为。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">意大利智库国际事务研究所所长托奇（</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">Nathalie Tocci</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">）告诉美国之音，“对于中国不公平的经济行为、对人权和法治的侵犯、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">5G</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">网络的安全风险，以及对全球治理的不在意，双方有着类似的担忧。”</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">文件写道：“新政府和国会的到来是欧盟更新和重振与美国基于共同利益的战略伙伴关系的机会。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">该文件提议建立一个数字监管框架，在反垄断法、数据保护、合作打击网络威胁等方面采取共同对策，并在监督外国投资方面进行合作。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">新跨大西洋议程</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">草案还对美国要求组织“民主峰会”的提议表示支持，并称新的跨大西洋机制应基于“志同道合伙伴组织的新全球联盟”。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">该草稿提议在</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">2021</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">年上半年欧盟</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">-</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">美国峰会上启动新的跨大西洋议程。此计划将提交并等待</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">12</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">月</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">10-11</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">日欧盟成员国领导人会议批复。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">路透社看到的另一份内部文件显示，欧盟将于本周就如何最有效地“更新和重振”与华盛顿的关系展开磋商。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">来自</span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">27</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box">个欧盟成员国的大使将研究与美国有可能进一步合作的五大关键领域。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">欧盟的这一最新动向是对北京近日的卡位外交的沉重打击</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 11.25pt; line-height: 15pt; background: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box"><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:#333333; letter-spacing:.15pt">北京为何拉拢日本而不是欧盟，由此可看出一些端倪。可以预言，待美国国内情势尘埃落定后，北京在外交上将面临更持续而强有力的风暴。</span></span></p> <p> </p> </div>