秦伟平：尊者达赖喇嘛的中间道路政策与未来西藏变局

2025年3月11日，尊者达赖喇嘛出版了一本新书《为无声者发声》，讲述了他为西藏及其人民与中共政府抗争七十余年的坎坷经历，特别记录了他与毛泽东的会面，以及与历代中共领导人的谈判与抗争。这本书是即将迎来90岁生日的尊者达赖喇嘛为藏人和世界留下的一份珍贵文字记录。他表示： “我希望这本书能在今天激发新的思考和对话，并为西藏的未来提供一个框架，即使在我离开之后也是如此。” 这句话情感真挚，却也令人黯然神伤。今年2月8日，曾担任西藏流亡政府主席的嘉乐顿珠逝世，享年97岁。他是尊者达赖喇嘛的哥哥，一生致力于西藏的自由与自治。虽然尊者达赖喇嘛享誉全球，是藏传佛教的精神领袖，但他亦为肉体凡胎。所有关注西藏问题和未来的人都不得不面对一个现实，即第十四世达赖喇嘛在可预见的未来某一天也会离世，而西藏问题也将面临更加不确定的前景。

根据藏传佛教达赖喇嘛的转世制度和传统，第十四世之后将迎来第十五世达赖喇嘛。中共政府的如意算盘不难猜测——届时他们会在西藏境内操控并扶持一个符合中共政策和利益的 “达赖喇嘛” ，以此瓦解境外流亡藏人社区，使其群龙无首，最终式微，从而让西藏问题不了了之。然而，尊者达赖喇嘛已明确表示，他不会在境内西藏或中国转世。因此，未来极有可能出现两个第十五世达赖喇嘛：一个是流亡藏人认可的、出生于自由世界的达赖喇嘛，另一个则是由中国政府操控的傀儡达赖喇嘛。在这方面，中共已有丰富经验——当年，达赖喇嘛认定的班禅喇嘛被“失踪”，取而代之的是一个由中共扶持、受其完全控制的“班禅喇嘛”。从政治角度来看，中共目前采取的拖延和抹黑战略已取得一定成效，但未来政局和世事的发展依然充满巨大不确定性。

历史总是充满争议，尤其是涉及政治斗争的历史。当事各方往往站在各自立场上为自身利益辩护。西藏在漫长的历史进程中，一直拥有独特的文化与民族传统，长期作为一个主体政权，与包括中国在内的汉族、蒙古族、印度等周边政权共存，尤其与明王朝和清王朝保持着特殊的联系。这种关系既非国与国之间的纯粹外交关系，也非中央政府与地方政权的隶属关系。依我个人理解，西藏与明清王朝更类似于附庸国与宗主国的关系，为避免被强大势力以武力征服甚至毁灭，只能采取这样的方式维持相对和平的共存。

中共政府宣称“西藏自古以来就是中国的一部分”，而藏人则认为西藏曾是一个独立国家。在与达赖喇嘛代表的谈判中，中共多次要求流亡藏人承认西藏是中国的一部分，而藏人朋友告诉我：“我们不能说谎。” 在绝对的暴力面前，正义有时显得极为无力。1959年，西藏爆发起义，最终的结果是年轻的尊者达赖喇嘛带领数万追随者流亡印度，而西藏全境及数百万藏人彻底被中共统治。在尊者达赖喇嘛的领导下，流亡藏人社区不断发展壮大，如今已遍布世界各地，西藏文化与文明得以较好地保存和传播。2011年，尊者达赖喇嘛卸任政治领导职务，流亡藏人社会顺应潮流，建立了民选流亡政府，以服务流亡藏人并为西藏的自由与权益而斗争。

我于1980年出生于中国湖北，在中国大陆生活并接受教育33年。中共政府长期宣扬“西藏自古属于中国” ，并将达赖喇嘛描绘为企图分裂国家、追求西藏独立的 “民族分裂分子” 。绝大多数不明真相的中国人因此将其视为破坏国家统一和稳定的敌人。然而，自2013年旅居美国以来，我有幸在纽约及印度达兰萨拉多次与尊者达赖喇嘛会面，近距离观察和互动，深入了解西藏历史、流亡藏人的生活以及西藏问题的成因与困境。这让我更加意识到，藏汉之间长期缺乏有效沟通与相互理解，而无论中国的政局如何演变，西藏问题最终都需要一个可行的解决方案。

作为一个长期关注中国民主转型和社会进步的年轻人，我一直公开鼓励中共当局与尊者达赖喇嘛对话，在尊者有生之年寻求解决西藏问题的方案，这不仅是政治智慧的体现，也需要领导人具备道德勇气。尊者达赖喇嘛深谙国际形势与政治现实，早已公开声明不追求西藏独立，而是希望西藏能够在中国版图内实现高度自治——即所谓的“中间道路”。我一直高度赞赏尊者达赖喇嘛提倡的非暴力理念，并认为西藏问题完全可以在尊者的智慧指引和现实妥协中找到一个双赢的解决方案。然而，中共领导人对此视而不见，使得“中间道路”在年轻一代流亡藏人中面临挑战。

在民主化的流亡藏人社会，并非只有一种声音。一些年轻的藏人政治家主张推动西藏独立，甚至抛弃非暴力理念。在尊者达赖喇嘛在世时，这些激进声音或被压制，但若他未来某一天离世，新一代藏人政治家很可能矢志不渝地推动西藏独立，令局势更加复杂，西藏问题也将变得更难解决。

历史风云变幻莫测，没有人能够永生，没有政权可以永存。作为中国危机三部曲的作者，我和无数年轻人都在密切关注着中国的未来变局。目前中国经济已经危机重重陷入萧条，巨大的政治和社会危机正在酝酿之中，其后果可能导致中共政权崩溃，也可能因中共有效应对而继续维持统治。无论如何，西藏的民族和文化传统将在藏人的坚守下世代相传，而西藏问题的最终走向，也将取决于未来中国与世界的格局变化。

尊者达赖喇嘛曾多次教诲世人要相互友爱，珍惜和平。他是1989年诺贝尔和平奖得主，他的非暴力理念和宗教智慧，对境内外藏人乃至全世界产生了深远影响。我永远记得他亲口对我说： “我们要秉持爱心与慈悲心，以善意和利他之心对待世界，每个人都应有机会获得快乐与幸福。”

但愿未来，西藏能够真正迎来自由的新纪元。

2025年3月30日

作者简介：秦伟平，1980年生于中国湖北黄冈，经济学者，时政评论家，普林斯顿中国学社《纵览中国》专栏作家，著有《中国危机路线图》《中国危机大逃亡》《中国危机大赢家》等畅销书，曾于2016年应邀访问印度达兰萨拉藏人流亡政府，与第十四世达赖喇嘛会面及视频专访。长期致力于推动中国民主转型和社会进步，现居住在美国。

Qin Weiping: The Dalai Lama’s Middle Way Approach and the Future of Tibet

On March 11, 2025, His Holiness the Dalai Lama published a new book, Speaking for the Voiceless, recounting his more than seventy-year-long struggle against the Chinese Communist government on behalf of Tibet and its people. The book particularly documents his meeting with Mao Zedong and his negotiations and confrontations with successive Chinese leaders. As His Holiness approaches his 90th birthday, this book serves as a precious written record for Tibetans and the world. He said:

“I hope this book will inspire new thinking and dialogue today and provide a framework for Tibet’s future, even after I am gone.”

This heartfelt statement is both profound and deeply saddening. On February 8 of this year, Gyalo Thondup, the former chairman of the Tibetan government-in-exile, passed away at the age of 97. He was the older brother of the Dalai Lama and dedicated his life to Tibet’s freedom and autonomy. Although His Holiness is globally revered as the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, he is ultimately mortal. Those concerned about Tibet’s future must confront a stark reality: at some point in the foreseeable future, the 14th Dalai Lama will pass away, and Tibet’s future will become even more uncertain.

According to the Tibetan Buddhist system of reincarnation, the 14th Dalai Lama will be succeeded by the 15th. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) intentions are not difficult to predict—they will undoubtedly seek to manipulate and install a "Dalai Lama" within Tibet who aligns with CCP policies and interests. This would be an attempt to weaken the Tibetan exile community, leaving it leaderless and eventually fading into obscurity, effectively burying the Tibet issue. However, His Holiness has explicitly stated that he will not reincarnate in Tibet or anywhere in China. This means that in the future, there will likely be two 15th Dalai Lamas: one recognized by the Tibetan exile community, born in the free world, and another puppet Dalai Lama controlled by the Chinese government. The CCP already has experience with such tactics—after the Dalai Lama recognized the Panchen Lama, that child was "disappeared," and in his place, the CCP installed a fully controlled "Panchen Lama." From a political standpoint, the CCP’s strategy of delay and discrediting has yielded some success, but the future remains highly unpredictable.

History is always controversial, especially when it comes to political struggles. Different sides often defend their positions based on their own interests. Tibet, throughout its long history, has maintained a unique cultural and ethnic identity, existing as an independent entity alongside Han Chinese, Mongols, Indians, and others. Its relationship with the Ming and Qing dynasties was neither that of two fully independent nations nor that of a central government and a subordinate local authority. From my perspective, Tibet’s relationship with the Ming and Qing dynasties was more akin to that of a vassal state and suzerain, a means of survival to avoid conquest or destruction by a more powerful force.

The CCP claims that "Tibet has always been part of China," while Tibetans argue that Tibet was once an independent country. In negotiations with the Dalai Lama’s representatives, the CCP has repeatedly demanded that Tibetans-in-exile recognize Tibet as part of China, but Tibetan friends have told me:

"We cannot lie."

Against absolute violence, justice sometimes appears powerless. In 1959, the Tibetan uprising ended with the young Dalai Lama leading tens of thousands of followers into exile in India, while Tibet fell completely under CCP rule. Under His Holiness’ leadership, the Tibetan exile community has grown and spread worldwide, preserving and promoting Tibetan culture and civilization. In 2011, His Holiness stepped down from his political leadership role, and the exile community embraced democratic governance, establishing an elected government-in-exile to serve the Tibetan people and advocate for Tibet’s freedom and rights.

I was born in Hubei, China, in 1980 and lived and was educated in mainland China for 33 years. The CCP has long propagated the narrative that "Tibet has always belonged to China" and has portrayed the Dalai Lama as a "separatist" attempting to divide the country. As a result, the vast majority of uninformed Chinese people view him as an enemy of national unity and stability. However, since moving to the United States in 2013, I have had the privilege of meeting His Holiness the Dalai Lama multiple times in New York and Dharamsala, India. Through these interactions, I have gained a deeper understanding of Tibet’s history, the lives of exiled Tibetans, and the root causes of Tibet’s struggles. I have come to realize the severe lack of communication and mutual understanding between Tibetans and Han Chinese. Regardless of how China’s political landscape evolves, the Tibet issue ultimately requires a practical solution.

As someone who has long been concerned with China’s democratic transition and social progress, I have consistently called on the CCP to engage in dialogue with His Holiness the Dalai Lama and seek a resolution to the Tibet issue while he is still alive. This is not only a matter of political wisdom but also a test of moral courage for China’s leadership. His Holiness is well aware of international realities and has long publicly stated that he does not seek Tibet’s independence, but rather, its high degree of autonomy within China—what he calls the "Middle Way." I deeply admire his commitment to nonviolence and believe that a peaceful, win-win solution for Tibet is possible under his guidance. Unfortunately, CCP leaders remain blind to this opportunity, causing the "Middle Way" to face increasing challenges among younger generations of Tibetans in exile.

In the democratic society of the Tibetan exile community, there is no single voice. Some young Tibetan politicians advocate for full independence and are even willing to abandon nonviolence. While His Holiness is alive, these more radical voices may be kept in check. However, once he passes away, a new generation of Tibetan leaders may resolutely push for independence, making the situation even more complex and difficult to resolve.

History is unpredictable—no one can live forever, and no regime can last forever. As the author of The China Crisis Trilogy, I, along with many young people, closely observe China’s future. The Chinese economy is already in deep crisis, suffering from severe stagnation. Political and social crises are brewing, and their consequences could lead to the collapse of the CCP or, alternatively, allow it to maintain its grip on power. Regardless of what happens, Tibet’s ethnic and cultural traditions will endure through the perseverance of its people, and the final resolution of the Tibet issue will depend on the evolving dynamics of China and the world.

His Holiness, the Dalai Lama has repeatedly taught people to love one another and cherish peace. As the 1989 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, his philosophy of nonviolence and spiritual wisdom has profoundly influenced Tibetans both inside and outside Tibet, as well as the entire world. I will always remember his words to me:

"We must cultivate love and compassion, treat the world with kindness and altruism, and ensure that everyone has the opportunity to experience happiness."

May Tibet one day truly enter a new era of freedom.

March 30, 2025

Author Bio: Qin Weiping, born in 1980 in Huanggang, Hubei Province, China, is an economist and political commentator. He is a columnist for China in Perspective, published by the Princeton China Initiative. He is the author of several bestselling books, including The China Crisis Roadmap, The Great Escape from the China Crisis, and The Great Winner of the China Crisis. In 2016, he was invited to visit the Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamsala, India, where he met with and conducted a video interview with His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama. Qin has long been dedicated to promoting democratic transition and social progress in China. He currently resides in the United States.